2013 Outlook - Baylor

Baylor and HC Art Briles are in a tough position in 2013.  Last season, the team posted a 10-3 record, and celebrated their first Heisman Trophy winner in Robert Griffin III.  This no doubt got the fans excited, but with excited fans come increased expectations.  Improving on last season would be a challenge in itself, but to do it with RG3 playing on Sundays, could be close to impossible.



Replacing the Heisman winner under center this season will be the guy who backed him up for the last few seasons, SR Nick Florence.  Now Florence has been quite successful in the limited time he has gotten on field behind Griffin, including 62% completions, and 1800 yards in 7 starts back in 2010.  But Florence is not Griffin.  He may be a good passer, but he has none of the electricity of Griffin, and no doubt will represent a step down from a year ago.  In addition to loosing Griffin, Baylor also loses RB Terrance Ganaway.  Ganaway never got the publicity of some of the other top backs in the nation, but I really liked what he brought to the table.  He was consistent and versatile.  This year, the team will be looking to SO Lache Seastrunk to be the primary ball carrier.  He is very fast (originally recruited to Oregon) but I am not sure he will have enough respect from opposing defenses to keep them honest, especially early on.  At receiver, RG3's favorite target from a year ago, Kendall Wright, has also graduated to the NFL.  In addition, Josh Gordon left the program too.  This leaves SR Terrance Williams as the primary weapon, and JR Tevin Reese to have to step up his game to become a legit second option.  Williams is the real deal though.  I project him higher than his former teammate Wright from a year ago.    Up front, the Bears have a nice interior o-line, featuring SR C Ivory Wade, SR OG Cameron Kaufhold and the guy who may prove to be the best of them all, JR OG Cyril Richardson.  Each of these guys can get the job done, and I would expect them to crate nice running holes for Seastrunk to take advantage of.

Defensively, this team is more talented than the 10-3 group from a year ago.  The defensive line has experience, even if they do lack star power.  The three SRs who project as starters all should be better than a year ago, although I am not expecting any to be really dominant.  At linebacker, JR OLB Ahmad Dixon is a very good player.  I expect him to improve on the 89 tackles made in his SO campaign, and he could be in line for all-conference consideration by season end.  The other guys from this unit will have to make names for themselves, as none currently projects very highly.  The secondary, which was a weakness at times last year, is all back, and they project to be vastly improved.  JR CB KJ Morton, and both safeties, JR Sam Holl and SR Mike Hicks all finished off last season on a strong note, and all project to improve upon last season's numbers.  Each of these guys came into their own after being first time starters, and I expect their development to continue in 2013.

The Bears are still a good football team, but unfortunately I don't see them repeating last season's performance.  Baylor had a rare talent in Griffin, and lost a lot when he left for the NFL.  I expect Briles will be able to land more and more stud prospects now that he has shown what he can do with that kind of talent, so the future for Baylor football sure does look bright, but still I expect a downturn in 2013.

2013 Outlook - Texas Tech

HC Tommy Tuberville is entering his third year as the HC in Lubbock, and it is typically during the third year that things start to really take shape for a HC.  Finally, many of the guys on the field are guys that the HC recruited for his system, and left over attitudes from the old regime have finally matriculated out.  What will this me of Texas Tech in 2013 then?



SR QB Seth Doege is coming of a season where he was tops in the country in completion percentage.  It speaks to how accurate a passer he is, and bodes well for his 2013 prospects.  Unfortunately, he is not mobile under center, and that will lead to him coming out of the game from time to time, in favor of the athletic understudy, rFR Michael Brewer.  Brewer is a Tuberville recruit, and the future signal caller for this offense, but that will have to wait until 2014 to fully take.  For now, it will be Doege's team.  Doege has a nice battery of wide receivers at his disposal this year, all of whom can get it done.  SRs Alex Torres and Darrin Moore, along with JR Eric Ward make for an experienced unit who should be quite reliable barring injuries of course.  Unfortunately, the running game does not to appear to be in the same shape.  SR Eric Stephens is coming off an injury, and is uncertain to even return.  Behind him are some decent, but not outstanding ball players.  Up front, this o-line is questionable, except for SR OT LaAdrian Waddle.  He could become a mid round prospect with another strong season.

Defensively, this Red Raider's team has some guys who will stand out, but unfortunately, not enough of them.  The defensive front is comprised of mix of upper and underclassmen.  My expectations for this unit are low, and it will take one of these guys really stepping it up to help them to compete.  The linebackers have an emerging ball player, JR Terrance Bullitt who will fly around making plays all season.  He can penetrate and tackle, and that will be so valuable for this team.  Also helping will be the addition of JUCO transfer, MLB Will Smith.  Smith has already emerged as a leader for this team, and if his play is as advertised, the linebackers will be leading the charge in 2013.  The secondary will need to find two reliable corners, and be able to stick with them if they are going to avoid duplicating their terrible performance from a year ago.  The safeties are talented though, especially SR Cody Davis.  If the unit can stay healthy and gel together, they should show improvement over last season.

Although it will be that all important third year with Tuberville at the helm, I am not expecting much from the Red Raiders.  I think despite having some talent on offense, they will be too one dimensional.  On defense, they have some talented players, but no real depth, and a very questionable front.  Last season Texas Tech went 5-7, and I expect similar numbers from them in 2013.

2013 Outlook - Kansas State

Last season, the Kansas State Wildcats surprised a lot of people, finishing the season 10-3 behind the dynamic QB play of Collin Klein.  This year Klein returns, but will the Wildcats winning ways?



In this, his SR season, QB Collin Klein will be one of the most exciting players to watch, anywhere in the country on Saturdays this fall.  He is electric with the ball in his hands, and is excellent at making plays with his feet.  He will need to continue to develop as a passer if he is going to be successful at the next level, but if he continues to progress, K-State will be tough for opponents to stop.  When it is not Klein carrying the rock, it is typically going to be JR John Hubert.  Hubert is small (5'7") but powerful in the lower body.  It makes him very difficult to bring him down because of that strength and low center of gravity.  Klein has some weapons to throw to this year, so he should look to do that a bit more.  JUCO transfer Marquez Clark arrives in Manhattan after a 98 catch 1600 yard season last year with a lot to prove.  If his play can be to that level, Klein will be quite happy.  In addition to Clark, the Wildcats have SO WR Tyler Locket who has shown a lot of promise.  He is not a projected starter this year, but should see some time, and could continue to develop.  Up front, the line returns 3 full time starters, and they add in another JUCO transfer with a high ceiling.  JR Tavon Rooks will be another of these JUCO guys looking to make a name for himself on the big stage.  This line should be good, and keep this offense moving the chains.

Defensively, this is a talented team too.  Up front, SR DE Meshak Williams is one of the most promising pass rushers in the country.  He needs to continue to develop his technique to go with his raw strength, but he could absolutely emerge as a 12 sack guy this year for HC Bill Snyder.  At linebacker, Arthur Brown is one of the best in the business, and is getting attention as a possible day one selection in next April's draft for good reason.  He is all over the field, has a great nose for the ball, and simply makes plays for this defense.  The addition of former QB, SR Justin Tuggle will be an interesting experiment this season to watch as well.  Although he has never been a starting linebacker, he certainly has the potential and a mentor in his father, former multiple time pro-bowler for the Atlanta Falcons, Jessie Tuggle.  The secondary has another emerging star lined up in SR CB Nigel Malone.  Malone was a candidate for the Thorpe last year, and was a Walter Camp All-American as well.  He will be a name to watch, as will S Ty Zimmerman, who although overshadowed by Malone at times, was still a good play maker in his own right.

Although I'm not sold on another 10 win season from K-State, I do think this is a talented ball club with a lot of potential.  Because of the attention Klien will bring, they won't sneak up on anyone this year, but if anyone fails to take them very seriously, the Wildcats will hand it to them.

2013 Outlook - TCU

Gary Patterson and his TCU Horned Frogs have become a nightmare for the BCS.  They are one of the teams who year in, year out put up 10-12 win seasons, and continually are left outside of the biggest games of the year because of their conference.  Just like West Virginia, TCU takes a step up in competition this year as they move to the Big 12.  Will their success continue in 2013?



Casey Pachall took over as the starter last year after Andy Dalton joined the Cincinnati Bengals.  Pachall had  a very nice season, and now enters his JR year poised to take another step forward.  Despite having decent athleticism and speed, Pachall stayed in the pocket last year throwing for just under 3000 yards.  This year, the competition will be tougher, but he should continue to improve.  Last season's three-headed running back monster is now set to be a two-man show as Ed Wesley declared for the NFL Supplemental draft.  This leaves SR Matthew Tucker and JR Waymon James to shoulder the load.  Both guys are talented and experienced, and I would expect good numbers from each.  At receiver, Pachall's top target looks to be JR Josh Boyce.  Boyce was the first TCU receiver to earn all-conference honors in the Mountain West.  Doing it in the Big 12 will be harder.  Up front, this team looks solid, but not great.  If SR OG Blaize Foltz can stay healthy, the unit should be pretty good.

Defensively, the Horned Frogs may be a step down from their team a year ago.  Up front, DE Stansly Maponga returns, and he will continue to be a very good ball player.  Maponga is underrated, and really brings a nice wide skill set to the table.  SO David Johnson showed some promise last year during his opportunities, and this year will move into a full time starters role at DT.  The linebackers is where this team will have the biggest falloff.  Both Tanner Brock and Tank Carder are now gone, and that leaves SR OLB Kenny Cain as the unit's best player.  Cain is good, but he is not to the level of either Brock or Carder.  It means that one of the young guys on this team will need to emerge for the unit to even have a remote possibility of duplicating their output from 2012.  The TCU secondary is always a very good unit, but again, I predict a step back in 2013.  Unlike in years past, I do not see anyone ready to be "the man" for this group.  They have some functional pieces, and they should play smart team football, but without a leader, I can't see them at the same level, especially considering the up-step in competition.

TCU has been a very good team for quite a few years now.  It no longer surprises anyone to see them only loose a game or two each year.  Now that they are going to be facing top national competition every week though, I cannot see Gary Patterson's team not taking a step back for a few seasons.  Patterson is a very good coach though, and I don't see him letting the wheels fall off completely.

2013 Outlook - West Virginia

Dana Holgorsen left his old stomping grounds, the Big 12, last season when he became the new HC at West Virginia.  Now he returns to the conference where he built his reputation, as the Mountaineers leave the Big East for the pastures of the Big 12.  The question is, how will this high powered, productive offence fair in a conference with better competition?



Last season, as a JR, QB Geno Smith set the Big East record for passing yards, while completing 66% of his attempts.  As staggering as that is, it is even more incredible to think that it happened in his first year in Holgorsen's offense.  Now Smith is a year more experienced and has had more time to pick up the system, the sky is the limit in terms of productivity.  The defenses of the Big 12 will likely be more stingy than the competition they faced in the Big East last year, but I still think his number can improve.  This is especially true when you consider the talent of the weapons he will be throwing to.  Last year, both WRs Tavon Austin and Stedman Bailey broke the thousand yard receiving barrier.  2013 will be their second year in Holgorsen's offense too, and I expect for them to have increased production this year as well.  Even JR Ivan McCartney could get in on the action this year.  Although it seems far fetched, it is possible that all three of these guys pick up more than 1000 yards this season.  The running back situation at West Virginia is a little different.  Currently, SO Dustin Garrison is slated to be the primary back.  Garrison is quick, and he has good hands out of the backfield, but he is very, very small.  At only 166 lbs, he is always one hit away from his season coming to an end, and he will need to add size and strength if he is to survive.  Up front, the Mountaineers seem primed to reverse their downward trend they have been on for the last 5 seasons.  Although I am not overly impressed with either of the tackles, I really like all three projected starters on the interior of this line.  These three seniors are all very strong, and if OG Josh Jenkins can stay healthy, they should be a big asset to this team.

Defensively, I think this team may be down a notch or two from a year ago.  Last season, the Mountaineers produced an excellent pass rush, courtesy of Bruce Irvin and Julian Miller.  This year both are gone.  This leaves the most experienced pass rusher as JR DE Will Clarke, who amassed two whole sacks a year ago.  The linebackers will look different in 2013 too.  The team is transitioning from a 3-3-5 to a 3-4, which will result in SR Terrence Garvin moving from S into a OLB position.  Garvin is the team's best defender, and he should be able to excel in his new role.  West Virginia will also need for SR Josh Francis to step up his play, as he has not lived up to expectations since transferring from JUCO last year.  In the secondary, the Mountaineers always seem to play well as a group.  The unit lacks any true standouts, but the combination of  the 3 JRs and 1 SR puts them on par with last year's group in terms of starting experience.  I expect this team to be fundamentally sound as typical, and to put up some decent output.

West Virginia is a good team with a great offense, for whom life has gotten more difficult.  The level of competition has shifted, with games against Oklahoma, OK State, Texas, Baylor, and Texas Tech replacing games against Pittsburgh, Louisville, South Florida, Syracuse and Cincinnati.  Dana Holgorsen is one of the best young minds in college football, and his team will score points, but unless they can stop the other side, I expect to see the win total drop from a year ago as the team finds itself in a bunch of shootouts.