Tuesday, August 17, 2010

Conference Preview 2010 - ACC


Projections

Costal Division
1.       North Carolina
2.       Miami
3.       Georgia Tech
4.       Virginia Tech
5.       Duke
6.       Virginia

Atlantic Division
1.       Clemson
2.       Florida State
3.       Boston College
4.       Wake Forest
5.       Maryland
6.       NC State

Conference Champions: North Carolina

Team Previews

The Best
North Carolina Tar Heels

The ACC may be the most difficult of the conferences to project heading into the 2010 season, because they really do have so many good teams.  Miami, VT, GT, FSU, Clemson, or this Tar Heel squad could win the conference this year and it would not be a surprise.  The reason that I am projecting UNC to carry the title in this crowded conference is a result of the old adage “defense wins championships.”  The bottom line is this Tar Heel defense is my highest rated in the nation, boasting 5 players who could be off the board in the first round of the 2011 NFL draft.

On the offense, senior quarterback TJ Yates will have the opportunity to carry this team.  He has some experience as a starter, and if he can throw just a few more TDs and a couple fewer INTs, he should keep this offense putting up enough points to win a lot of games.  If Shaun Draughn is healthy for the whole season, he could approach the 1000 year mark this season, if Butch Davis uses AJ Blue in the wildcat again, this could be a fairly effective rushing team.  The receiving corps will all be back and have a lot more game time under their belt than at this same point last year.  Senior, Greg Little will put up another 60+ catch campaign, and if Erik Highsmith continues to develop, Yates will have some real weapons at his disposal.  Considering that the hogs up front will be the best o-line unit that Davis has had in his time at UNC, this offense will be good enough for the team to win most games.

If defense truly does win championships, the Chapel Hill faithful have to be very excited about 2010.  Robert Quinn and Marvin Austin are both projected as top 10 picks in next April’s NFL draft, and these guys will give UNC one of the scariest fronts in college football.  You will not run against this team, and if Quinn can continue to penetrate into opposing backfields, passing will not be any fun either.  Rounding out the front seven you find two more first round prospects in OLB Bruce Carter, and MLB Quan Sturdivant in the mix.  Bottom line is these guys will fly all over the field and tackle anything and everything.  This is bad news for opposing offenses. When opponents are able to stay upright for long enough to look downfield, they had better account for safety, Dunta Williams, who will be patrolling the secondary looking to improve on his 122 tackle, 6 interception junior season.  Another first round talent, this ball hawk is a dangerous man to throw against. 

As for the schedule, no team in the ACC has it easy.  The Heels open up with a tough battle against LSU, but I think they can come away with a win in that one.  Home games against Georgia Tech, Clemson, and Virginia Tech will all test this team.  They also have to visit Miami, and FSU this year, so the team will have to remain sharp all year, but in the end, I expect to see this team shut down almost everyone they face, and be in the hunt all season long.


The Surprise
Duke Blue Devils

For years Duke football has been a forgotten entity in the heart of basketball country.  Now entering his third season in Durham, head coach David Cutliffe is poised to surprise some teams this season.  No longer should opponents simply pencil in a “W” when they see the Blue Devils on their schedule.  They do however play in a very crowded Costal Division, so wins for this team will not come easily.

Duke loses the second all time leading passer in ACC history as Thaddeus Lewis graduated, and now they place the ball in the hands of Sean Renfree.  This kid showed real flashes when he did play last year, but his torn ACL could result in a slow come back for this kid.  If it does, expect the team to insert freshman Sean Schroeder, who they are very high on.  Running back Desmond Scott will be the primary ball carrier for Duke this year, and I think he could surprise some folks and put up some real respectable totals in 2010.  Conner Vernon, Donovan Varner and Austin Kelly make up a solid group of receivers, and should provide this team the ability to stretch the field a bit.  The real strength of this offense will be the big boys up front.  This is easily the best group of o-linemen Cutliffe has fielded in his tenure, with seven of last year’s top eight players returning.  The group will open holes for the backs, and provide time for the QB to find his receivers.

On the defensive side of the ball things are a bit different.  The defensive line will not be as good as it was in either of Duke’s past two seasons.  Wes Oglesby is the only returning starter on this unit, and he is not good enough on his own to make opposing offenses have to adjust for him.  Unless one of his line mates can step it up, this group could struggle.  The linebackers have a little more game experience than their d-line counterparts, but again, this is a unit without a real star.  Each of the three starters can be good within the system, but none can be counted on to take over a game.  The secondary on the other hand I believe is on an upswing.  I really like the decision to move former wideout, Johnny Williams to corner, and I think he could have a good season this year.  Matt Daniels will be back with 12 starts under his belt at safety too, and I think although the group lost their star in Leon Wright, they be a better unit overall this year.

From a scheduling perspective, the Blue Devils will have to play hard to earn some wins, but I think they are ready for the challenge.  If they can win an early season match up against Wake Forest, they could find themselves facing Miami on October 16th win only one loss on their record (Alabama).  Unfortunately, they have to travel to Blacksburg the next week, and then they finish the year at Boston College, home against Georgia Tech, and then on the road against UNC.  Despite a tough schedule, if Duke can surprise Wake and beat two Costal Division opponents, they could legitimately finish the year 7-5 and playing some post season football.


The Slip
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets

After winning the ACC last season, the Yellow Jackets are going to be a good team, capable of defending that conference crown.  Unfortunately, with the maturation of the Tar Heel defense, and the talent of other Costal Division teams like Miami and Va Tech, I expect the Yellow Jackets to slip a bit in 2010.

Joshua Nesbitt is a do it all type of quarterback that can beat you with his arm or his feet.  If he continues to improve, especially in the passing game, he could be a real threat to unseat Christian Ponder, Tyrod Taylor, or Jacory Harris as the best QB in the conference.  In the offensive backfield with Nesbitt will be Anthony Allen.  Although they team lost Jonathan Dwyer to early entry last season, Allen showed flashes of brilliance, rushing for an amazing 9.7 ypc in his 64 attempts last season.   Even if that average gets cut in half in 2010, this will be a very productive backfield for Tech.  As far as receivers go, Georgia Tech will be weaker than they were a year ago.  Demaryius Thomas jumped for the NFL, and his absence will leve this team lacking a true number one target for Nesbitt to throw to this season.  It is a good thing that Paul Johnson runs a true option offense, and they will pick up a large number of their yards on the ground.  As for the o-line, the team does return Senior Center, Sean Bedford and he will be good.  Unfortunately, he is the only proven commodity on this line, and that could make it a bit more difficult, especially in the early part of the season, for this team to hit their stride. 

Georgia Tech will transition this year into a 3-4 defense.  Overall I like this move, mainly because they have a stronger linebacking unit than they do a defensive line.  Georgia Tech loses defending ACC DPOY Derrick Morgan this year, and I believe this will make them weaker up front.  The linebackers however have the chance to become a strength of this team, ast they return Brad Jefferson and get Kyle Jackson back from injury.  These guys should emerge as the leaders of this defense with Morgan gone, and I expect them to make a lot of tackles in 2010.  The secondary also losses their top player from last season, but they have added two outstanding freshmen to this unit.  Once they get some game time under their belt they will be good, but until then, I think this group will slip some from last year too.

With a weaker defense, and some questions at receiver and o-line, the Yellow Jackets could be ripe for the picking.  As early as September, they have to hit the road and take on a tough challenge in the Tar Heels, and then later in the year they have to visit Clemson, Virginia Tech, and then close at UGA.  With a home battle against the Hurricanes mixed in, it will be a tough road for a title defense for the Jackets.  Whereas I fully expect this team to be in each and every game they play this year, and I envision a Jan 1st Bowl Game for them, I do not expect them to be earning a BCS Bowl bid this year.


Don’t Forget About
Miami Hurricanes, Virginia Tech Hokies, Clemson Tigers, and Florida State Seminoles

As I have mentioned a few times in this article, the ACC is really anyone’s conference.  There are a lot of really good programs this year, and that is why this section was so difficult to write.  How could I pick just one team to tell you not to forget about.

The Miami Hurricanes for example, may be the most talented team overall in the conference.  With Jacory Harris at QB, and Leonard Hankerson at wideout, they will have the most dynamic QB/WR combo in the conference.  Add to these guys a defense that features DE Allen Bailey, CB Brandon Harris, FS Ray Ray Armstrong, and a slew of fast, hard-hitting linebackers, and you have a very good team that will win a lot of football games.

Virginia Tech also has a feature QB in Tyrod Taylor.  Another guy who can beat you with either his arm or feet, Taylor is poised to challenge for All-ACC 1st Team honors this season.  Ryan Williams is a very good running back, and this sophomore will be picking up both yards and touchdowns all season long.  With their most experienced receiving corp in years, the Hokies will score a lot of points this year.  Considering that Beamer Ball will be alive and well for its 24th straight year, you can count on exceptional special teams play from this group too.
Clemson is another team that has some real talent on their roster, and are my choice for repeating in the ACC Atlantic.  Kyle Parker is a talented QB ready to make a name for himself on the national scene.  Running backs Andre Ellington and Jamie Harper make for an outstanding pair in the Clemson backfield.  On the defensive side of the ball, Clemson features two possible first rounders in next year’s draft with DE Da’Quan Bowers, and S DeAndre McDaniel.  With all of this talent, and one of the best young coaches in college football in Dabo Swinney,  they should really make life difficult for all of their opponents.

Finally, the FSU Seminoles look poised to become part of the national discussion once again.  The legendary Bobby Bowden has retired, but his protégé Jimbo Fisher is not brand new to the system, and the team should not miss a beat in transition.  Although I believe he is a bit overrated, Christian Ponder is still a quality signal caller, and with a good QB, you will have your chances to win.  Losing Jarmon Fortson will hurt this team though, so Ponder is going to have to find a new target to rely upon.  Rodney Hudson anchors the big guys up front, and he will prove that not only is he the best true guard in the country, but the Noles o-line is one of the best units in the entire nation too.  The defense was not real good in Tallahassee last year, but with Sophomores Greg Reid and Jacobbi McDaniel leading the way, the future looks bright for this FSU defense. 

As I mentioned, I think the ACC is the toughest conference to call.  In fact, except for Virginia, there are no bad teams in this conference.  Even schools like Maryland, NC State, and Wake Forest will put up wins next year, especially if you look past them.  Because of this it is difficult to predict who will come out on top, but what is not hard to guess is that there will be some great football to watch all season long in the ACC.

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