Sunday, March 24, 2013

2013 Mock Draft 4.0



So free agency is well underway, and we have seen some significant player movement again.  As should be expected, these acquisitions and losses do effect draft plans for each of the involved teams, and as such, this is the mock draft that sees the most significant changes.

Also, at this point in time, most of my player evaluations and grades are complete.  There will still be some small adjustments for some of these guys, but very little major changes in the way in which I have these guys graded.

Also, a reminder.  My mock drafts DO NOT review what I think is going to happen on draft day.  I'm not trying predict anything.  Instead, my mocks espouse what I think should happen.  I place myself in the role of GM for each team and I pick as I would if I were on the clock, based on my perception of team need, and the overall value the I have on each player (I rate players on a scale of 0-200).

So with out any further delay, on to Mock 4.0 we go.



1.       Kansas City Chiefs – Luke Joeckel, OT, TAMU
The Chiefs really do have a bunch of different options with this pick.  When I evaluated all of the scenarios, I came down to the two which I favor the most.  This narrowed the decision down to Joeckel vs Eric Fisher.  I like Fisher because unlike Joeckel, I believe he could line up and play RT for the Chiefs who still have franchise player Braden Albert on the left.  But I keep thinking Albert could, and should be traded.  This would land the Chiefs more assets, and open space for Joeckel, who projects as the better LT prospect..  As for now, I go with the TAMU product, but this absolutely change before draft day.  Stay tuned.




2.       Jacksonville Jaguars – Sharrif Floyd, DT, Florida
The Jags are in a great position in this draft.  They can simply take the best player available that is not a OT.  Guys like Dee Milliner, Start Lotulelei, and Sharrif Floyd are all in the mix.  Based on what I have seen of Gus Bradley's defenses, I suspect Floyd would be the best fit of the three, and thus he remains as my selection here.  He has the ability to really impact the game from the DT position, and Jacksonville needs that.






3.       Oakland Raiders – Dee Milliner, CB, Alabama
This pick is where those who are tied up in what WILL happen will disagree with me.  Many have the Raiders picking QB, Geno Smith.  Although that may be what happens, it is not what SHOULD happen. Dee Milliner was the best corner in the nation this year, on the best defense in the country, against the best competition anywhere. Milliner can do everything you want from a corner, and I think he will be a great addition to the Oakland secondary.  Milliner is one of the best players on my overall board, and could be a big time anchor in this secondary which is in need of a rebuild.  Also note that in free agency the Raiders opted not to release incumbent QB Carson Palmer.





4.       Philadelphia Eagles – Dion Jordan, DE, Oregon
If Dee Milliner were still available, I think the Eagles could be tempted to pull the trigger on him, considering the team is now without Nnamdi Asomugha.  In this scenario though, Milliner is gone, and since the team still needs an athletic presence on the outside of their new 3-4 arrangement, I see Dion Jordan as the guy.  New HC Chip Kelly knows Jordan well having coached him at Oregon.  Jordan will be familiar with the schemes Kelly is bringing with him.  This should allow him to contribute right away, and the Eagles need some guys to step up and do just that.






5.       Detroit Lions – Eric Fisher, OT, Central Michigan
The Lions were one of the more active teams in free agency this year, and I really like what this team added.  I think Reggie Bush will be a phenomonal fit in this offense, and really help open things up.  The team still has some holes, but they are not in desperate need at any one particular position.  Looking a the BPA (best player available) leads them to Fisher, who also happens to fill a need following the retirement of Jeff Backus.







6.       Cleveland Browns – Star Lotulelei, DL, Utah
Cleveland made some very smart moves early in free agency, and addresses what was their biggest need by adding LBs Paul Kruger and Quinton Groves.  This team still has some needs, but they are in a position to look at the BPA philosophy with this pick too.  The health scare Star Lotulelei faced at the combine proved to be nothing, and he really is an impact player.  In the 3-4 the Browns will play, he would line up at DE.  He has Haloti Ngata upside, and I think although not their biggest need, this pick still makes sense.






7.       Arizona Cardinals - Lane Johnson, OT, Oklahoma
Arizona is a team that really needs a QB, and come draft day, they very well could take one with this pick.  As I have said before, that would be a mistake.  Even after re-reviewing all of the top QBs in this class, I still feel that none of them are worthy of a first round grade.  This means, if I was making the decision, I'd look in a different direction.  To get better QB play, good o-line play is a prerequisite.  They should look at QB in round 2, so now they should add Johnson.  Some have said Johnson is not top 15 worthy.  That is baloney.  He may turn out to be a better pro than either of the other OTs who will be taken in front of him.  He is that good.  Arizona would be smart to add him to the roster if they have that chance.





8.       Buffalo Bills - Cordarrelle Patterson, WR, Tennessee 
Buffalo's big free agency moves came in the form of losses.  Ryan Fitzpatrick and Andy Levitre were both allowed to leave, and that leaves this team with some holes to fill.  Like the Cards, the Bills may be tempted to reach for a signal caller here, but I think that would be a mistake.  Instead the team should either replace Levitre with Chance Warmack, or give their second round QB an option other than Stevie Johnson to throw to.  In this scenario, I chose to go with the receiver.  I think although raw, Patterson, has exceptional upside.  I think in another year or two, after maturing, this would make for an awesome 1-2 punch at receiver.  Since the Bills are not currently on the doorstep, the team has time to let this investment payoff.




9.       New York Jets - Barkevious Mingo, DE/OLB, LSU
During free agency, we watched everyone who could jump ship from the Jets, expect for Santonio Holmes.  This team could be in real trouble next year.  They have a lot of directions they could go with this pick.  Looking at their biggest need, they are out of luck as all of the top OTs are gone.  Looking at BPA, they find Barkevious Mingo, who brings the potential to get after the QB, which is something else this franchise needs.  Mingo has big upside, but the potential for a bust is there too.  Still, if I were rebuilding as the Jets are, I'd roll the dice on this kid at this point in the draft.






10.  Tennessee Titans - Xavier Rhodes, CB, Florida State
Although not a flashy move, the Titans opened free agency addressing their biggest need by adding the underrated Andy Levitre to play guard.  I really like this addition for this team already on the rise.  Guard would still be a consideration for this team, but now I would let Chance Warmack pass, and instead look at some other need areas.  Corner is one of them, and despite what some have projected, I really like FSU's Xavier Rhodes. He can play physical, in-your-face football.  I think his strength on the outside would be a welcome addition in Tennessee, and thus this is the call.





11.  San Diego Chargers - Chance Warmack, OG, Alabama
It is always nice when your team's biggest need matches up with the BPA in the draft.  In the Bolts case, that is exactly the case here.  Although not a star, losing Louis Vasquez really leaves this team wanting at OG, and Chance Warmack is one of the best college OGs I have ever seen.  I think he steps into the lineup as a starter on day 1.  Considering the growth of Denver, and the developments in KC, I think the Chargers have to hit with this pick, and Warmack give their new front office the best chance at doing that.







12.   Miami Dolphins – Sheldon Richardson, DT, Missouri
The Dolphins put a lot of money and effort into "winning" free agency, and they may have done just that.  Adding Wallace and Gibson at wideout, Ellerby and Wheeler at LB, and the possible addition of Winston at RT fills many of this teams needs.  They still have a hole at corner with the defection of Sean Smith to KC, but I see the next best corner, Desmond Trufant as too much of a reach here.  The Phins also need help at S and TE, but the guys they added (Clemons & Keller) are better than the reaches that would be taken here.  So onto DT, where Tony McDaniel has left.  It is not the biggest need for this team, but Richardson could be a big time addition.  The Phins always work to win the battles in the trenches, so although not a sexy pick that the fans will love, I think Richardson would be the best pick for the Dolphins at this juncture.






13.   Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Ziggy Ansah, DE, BYU
Last year the Bucs began to address their secondary with Mark Barron.  Now they really need to add more help in this spot, but with  Rhodes having been selected, they are left in a bit of a bind. Instead, The Bucs will maximize value by taking Ziggy Ansah.  Ansah had an incredible combine, and established himself as a legit defensive playmaker.  He is raw, but has incredible upside and with the hole left by Michael Bennett leaving, I think the Bucs will be happy to add Ansah's exceptional athleticism to their young defense.





14.   Carolina Panthers - Tavon Austin, WR, West Virginia
Carolina is in a very good position with this draft.  They have some holes, but a lot of their key positions are filled with young players, who are emerging stars.  In this scenario, I see the Panther choosing between the best DT, WR, or CB available. Of this population, Tavon Austin is the at the top.  Pairing Austin with Steve Smith would give Cam Newton and this offense some very serious speed. They will be a challenge for all defenses to cover, and could open up the door to some very creative play calling.  Later in this draft they will address the other needs, but taking Austin now would be too tempting to pass.






15.   New Orleans Saints -Bjoern Warner, DE, Florida State
After being a top 5 consideration early in the offseason, Warner fell a little and seems to have solidified himself as a mid- first round pick in my book.  Considering how well his upside matches with what Sean Payton and the Saints like to do defensively, as well as the needs they have up front, this pick makes too much sense not to happen.  Payton will work with Warner to get consistent effort from him, and hope to develop him into a prime DE in this defense.







16.   St Louis Rams - Jonathan Cooper, OG, North Carolina
If my scenario were to come to fruition,Sam Bradford would need to send a thank you note to the Buffalo Bills.  Their letting Levitre go and sign with the Titans is what allowed for Jonathan Cooper to still be available to the Rams here at 16.  Cooper is one of the Rams top targets and for good reason.  He is listed as a guard, but he can line up anywhere on the o-line.  Considering the team also added Jake Long in free agency, Bradford would have a much improved front to protect him next year.  This team is young, and quickly improving.  Give it this draft and next, and then watch out for the Rams.





17.   Pittsburgh Steelers - Jarvis Jones, DE/OLB, Georgia
This is the first time in a very long time, I can remember looking over the Pittsburgh Steelers and seeing so many holes.  They have to fill needs at LB, NT, CB, WR, and RB.  When looking over the BPAs, the name that is at the top of the list is Jarvis Jones.  Jones is one of my favorite players in this draft.  He is fast and aggressive with a violent streak that is reminiscent of James Harrison.  His still being available is a combination of a no-show at the combine, a poor run at his pro day, and some injury concerns.  The Steelers are in position to add one of the few guys with "superstar" potential from this class, and I just can't see them letting this opportunity pass.





18.   Dallas Cowboys - Kenny Vaccaro, S, Texas
Dallas is a team with a lot of talent that continues to fall short season after season.  Last offseason they spent a lot of money trying to upgrade their secondary.  They did better in 2012, but they still have some needs there.  Adding the local product, Kenny Vaccaro will make the Big D fans happy.  Although his measurables are a bit questionable, Vaccaro won everyone over at the combine with his personality and character.  Dallas could use some high character influence in their locker room, and his smarts at the safety position will be well received too.







19.   New York Giants - Tyler Eifert, TE, Notre Dame
Despite being only one year removed from a Super Bowl victory, the Giants have some needs that have to be filled.  They have to fill gaps at TE, MLB, and S.  Some experts have Tyler Eifert as a reach here at 19, but I really like what he brings to the table.  If I am making the pick for the Giants, I look at Eifert's ability to stretch a defense down the seam, and I am intrigued.  Martellus Bennet did a so so job at that a year ago, but he is now in Chicago.  Eifert is also a better route runner, and receiver than Bennett.  Paired with some of the weapons already in New York, I like this move more than any other options available to me at this point.






20.   Chicago Bears - DJ Fluker, OT, Alabama
The biggest issue the Bears have faced over the last three seasons is the porous o-line they have.  This has created erratic play from Cutler, and thus, inconsistent results. This offseason the Bears added Jermon Bushrod to play OT for them.  In reality, this should likely preclude them from adding an OT with this pick... but it shouldn't.  Bushrod is not the answer.  I still see this team needing a real option to keep Cutler upright.  If I were calling the shots in Chicago, I'd look at DJ Fluker with this pick.  I like his production at Alabama, against some of the best competition anywhere in the nation.  Then again, if I were calling the shots in Chicago, I would not have signed Bushrod in the first place.






21.  Cincinnati Bengals - Menelik Watson, OT, Florida State
The Bengals are a team on the rise.  They still have some needs though, and smart work during this draft could help them fill almost all of them.  I was a little surprised to see them let Andre Smith walk.  They now have a hole that has to be filled, and if they don't add any of the options available during free agency, I would recommend the addition of Watson.  He is raw, but immensely talented.  He would do well under Marvin Lewis, and with some more time and experience, he could be a impact player on the offensive front.






22.   St Louis Rams via Washington - Arthur Brown, LB, Kansas State
After adding Cooper with their earlier pick, the Rams are now able to focus on improving their defense.  I think they would give FIU safety, John Cyprien a long look here, but in the end, I recommend going with LB Arthur Brown.  Brown is a polished linebacker who really jumps off the tape at you when you watch K-State play.  Brown makes a lot of plays, and I suspect that Jeff Fisher would value this type of addition to his defense who did not make enough a year ago.






23.  Minnesota Vikings - Desmond Trufant, CB, Washington
Minnesota was considerably better this year than I anticipated.  They still have some room to grow though.  The Vikes traded away Percy Harvin in the offseason, but then they went and added Greg Jennings from Green Bay.  They still need to add another WR, but they also have some additional holes.  I like Desmond Trufant. I think he is a very good all around corner who really does everything well.  He has very good ball skills, which is something that is missing from Minnesota's secondary now that Antoine Winfield was released.    The Vikes have some other directions they could go with this pick, but I really like the Trufant selection here.






24.   Indianapolis Colts - Mantei Te'o, LB, Notre Dame
The Colts are another team that has made some nice additions during free agency.  They knew they had to address their o-line, and they added Godser Cherilus.  I'm not sold that the o-line is complete, but it is no longer the team's primary focus.  They still need to add some talent to the middle of their defense.  Te'o has had a well chronicled difficult offseason, starting with a poor performance in the national title game.  He will not necessarily be the super star some had thought, but he can be a good player in the right system.  Considering the steps that the Colts took last year, I really like this pairing.  I think Te'o will have the opportunity to grow, and put his past behind him, and the team can coach him up , and offset some of his weakness with the other guys on the squad.






25.  Minnesota Vikings via Seattle - Keenan Allen, WR, California
Seattle sent this pick to the Vikings in exchange for Percy Harvin.  As I mentioned earlier, the Vikes did add Greg Jennings in the offseason, but they still have some holes.  Keenan Allen may not be the fastest receiver, but he runs excellent routes, and has good hands.  If the Vikes are going to be successful, they have to give Ponder some weapons that will force teams out of the box.  Jennings plus Allen could be the ticket.  This would open up the passing game, and take some attention away from Adrian Peterson.







26.   Green Bay Packers - Tank Carradine, DE, Florida State
With an exceptionally talented team, the Packers can pretty much sit tight and adopt a BPA strategy with this pick in the first round.  This is not to suggest that the team has no holes.  They do, but they don't have to reach to fill them.  As a result, when they look at the big board, I suspect that Tank Carradine will be their target.  When healthy, Tank has every bit as much talent as teammate Bjoern Warner who went more than 10 picks earlier this round.  He has exceptional strength at the point of attack, and deceptive speed too.  What has held Tank back has been injuries.  If the Pack believes he can stay healthy, this could turn into a steal in round 1.





27.  Houston Texans - DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Clemson
Another really good team, I see the Texans gearing up for a Super Bowl run this season.  They have many of the pieces in place to make that happen, but they still are missing some weapons on the outside that would take attention away from Andre Johnson.  Some may call this a reach, but I really like Hopkins in the Texans offense.  He has speed, good hands, and the athletic ability to go up and compete for the jump ball.  This could be exactly what this team needs to make that final step into Super Bowl contention.





28.  Denver Broncos - Kawann Short, DT, Purdue
The Denver Broncos are in a position to simply look to add the best player on the board with this pick.  There are a handful of guys who could fit the bill, but based on my ratings, Kawann Short has the best upside of the bunch.  Unfortunately, he is a boom/bust type player.  His talent is there, but his effort is inconsistent.  Still I think the allure of his upside will be very tempting for John Fox, and he will push to add this young man to his defensive front.






29.   New England Patriots - Barrett Jones, OL, Alabama
No pick in my previous mock draft earned me as much flack as this one.  I understand that many experts have Barrett Jones rated much lower.  I understand that.  I simply disagree.  Jones is a winner with great flexibility.  He played all three o-line positions at a very high level while at Alabama.  He played against some of the best competition in the country.  He may not have the measurables that some others have, but he has smarts, heart, and the intangibles that make some guys long time contributors in the league.  If ever there was a team who looked passed the numbers to the player, it is New England.  Despite the ire this will earn me, I am again going with Jones to the Pats with this pick.  It may not be what does happen, but in my mind, it is what should happen.





30.   Atlanta Falcons - Zach Ertz, TE, Stanford
On the first day of free agency, the Falcons got very good news.  Future hall-of-fame tight end Tony Gonzalez has decided to return for one more season.  This means the Falcons don't yet have a big hole to fill.  This does not mean that they should not look at TE with this pick.  Zach Ertz projects higher that Coby Fleener did at this time a year ago, and adding Ertz who could learn from Gonzo for a year is a perfect scenario for the Falcons.  My suggestion would be to grab Ertz here, and fill some of their other holes later in the draft.





31.   San Francisco 49ers – John Cyprien, S, Florida International
After falling just short in the Big Game this past season, the Niners are loading up for another run.  They have made some nice moves, including adding the veteran receiver Anquan Boldin earlier in the month.  In addition, this team is loaded with draft picks this year, so they can sure up any holes they feel they have.  With their first pick, I suggest the team add the talented John Cyprien from FIU.  He has a lot of upside, and could fill the vacancy left by Dashon Goldson's defection to Tampa.  Cyprien may be a small school product, but his play is simply big time, and his style would mesh perfectly in the Harbaugh defense.





32.   Baltimore Ravens - Alec Ogletree, LB, Georgia
When you are the Super Bowl champs, you wear a big target on your back.  The Ravens learned this only weeks after hoisting the Lombardi trophy as other teams began to pick them clean following their title.  Ray Lewis and Matt Birk retired.  Then Kruger, Reed, Pollard, Ellerby, and Boldin all committed to continuing their careers elsewhere.  This leaves the defending champs with some serious holes, none bigger that the middle of their defense.  Alec Ogletree is an excellent tackler, and makes plays all over the field.  He also has some baggage. If Ozzie Newsome believes his mistakes are simple immaturity, he should pull the trigger on Ogletree with this pick.



33. Jacksonville Jaguars - Geno Smith, QB, West Virginia
34. San Francisco 49ers via Kansas City - Johnathan Banks, CB, Mississippi State
35. Philadelphia Eagles - Blidi Wreh Wilson, CB, UConn
36. Detroit Lions - Demontre Moore, DE/OLB, TAMU
37. Cincinnati Bengals via Oakland - Eddy Lacy, RB, Alabama
38. Arizona Cardinals - Matt Barkley, QB, USC
39. Cleveland Browns - Pick Forfeited
40. New York Jets - Dallas Thomas, OT, Tennessee
41. Tennessee Titans - Larry Warford, OG, Kentucky
42. Buffalo Bills - Tyler Wilson, QB, Arkansas
43. Miami Dolphins - Darius Slay, CB, Mississippi State
44. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - David Amerson, CB, North Carolina State
45. Carolina Panthers - Matt Elam, S, Florida
46. New Orleans Saints - Pick Forfeited
47. San Diego Chargers - Kevin Minter, LB, LSU
48. St Louis Rams - Eric Reid, S, LSU
49. Dallas Cowboys - Jamie Collins, LB, Southern Miss
50. Pittsburgh Steelers - Johnathan Hankins, NT, Ohio State
51. New York Giants - Kiko Alonso, LB, Oregon
52. Chicago Bears - Jonathan Bostic, LB, Florida
53. Washington Redskins - Jamar Taylor, CB, Bosie State
54. Minnesota Vikings - Margus Hunt, DE, SMU
55. Cincinnati Bengals - Justin Hunter, WR, Tennessee
56. Miami Dolphins via Indianapolis - Justin Pugh, OT, Syracuse  
57. Green Bay Packers - Terron Armstead, OT, Arkansas Pine Bluff
58. Seattle Seahawks - Cornelius Washington, LB, Georgia
59. Houston Texans - Jordan Mills, OT, La Tech
60. Denver Broncos - Corey Lemonier, DE, Auburn
61. New England Patriots - Quinton Patton, WR, La Tech
62. Atlanta Falcons - Sam Montgomery, DE, LSU
63. San Francisco 49ers - Jesse Williams, DT, Alabama
64. Baltimore Ravens - Phillip Thomas, S, Fresno State

65. Kansas City Chiefs - Datone Jones, DE/OLB, UCLA
66. Jacksonville Jaguars - Zavier Gooden, LB, Missouri
67. Detroit Lions - Robert Alford, CB, Southeastern Louisiana
68. Oakland Raiders - DJ Swearinger, S, South Carolina
69. Philadelphia Eagles - Kyle Long, OG, Oregon
70. Cleveland Browns - Dwayne Gratz, CB, UConn
71. Arizona Cardinals - Logan Ryan, CB, Rutgers
72. Tennessee Titans - Quanterus Smith, DE, Western Kentucky
73. Buffalo Bills - Sean Porter, OLB, TAMU
74. New York Jets - Mike Glennon, QB, North Carolina State
75. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - EJ Manuel, QB, Florida State
76. San Francisco 49ers via Miami - Marcus Lattimore, RB, South Carolina
77. New Orleans Saints - John Jenkins, NT, Georgia
78. San Diego Chargers - Tharold Simon, CB, LSU
79. Miami Dolphins - Vance McDonald, TE, Rice
80. St Louis Rams - Robert Woods, WR, USC
81. Pittsburgh Steelers - Marquise Goodwin, WR, Texas
82. Dallas Cowboys - Travis Frederick, C, Wisconsin
83. New York Giants - Sio Moore, LB, UConn
84. Miami Dolphins via Chicago - Jordan Poyer, S, Oregon State
85. Minnesota Vikings - Devonte Holloman, LB, South Carolina
86. Cincinnati Bengals - Khaseem Green, LB, Rutgers
87. Washington Redskins - Joe Kruger, DE, Utah
88. Indianapolis Colts - Oday Aboushi, OT, Virginia
89. Seattle Seahawks - Sylvester Williams, DT, North Carolina
90. Green Bay Packers - Giovanni Bernard, RB, North Carolina
91. Houston Texans - Brandon Williams, NT, Missouri Southern
92. Denver Broncos - Jordan Reed, TE, Florida
93. New England Patriots - Sanders Commings, DB, Georgia
94. Atlanta Falcons - Johnny Adams, CB, Michigan State
95. San Francisco 49ers - Gavin Escobar, TE, San Diego State
96. Baltimore Ravens - Ryan Swope, WR, TAMU
97. Houston Texans - Shamarko Thomas, S, Syracuse
98. Kansas City Chiefs - Alex Okafor, DE, Texas
99. Tennessee Titans - Travis Kelce, TE, Cincinnatti

Friday, March 15, 2013

Free Agency Impact

This blog is dedicated to looking at the future of pro football.  This means the focus is on the college players before they enter the NFL.  This Tuesday, when the NFL celebrated its new calendar year, Free Agency began.  Since then, there has been some significant player movement.

What this article will look at is how all of this player movement has impacted the possible draft destinations for some of the players who are looking to be drafted next month.  We will go team by team and look at what moves may have impacted the draft strategy, and which players this is most likely to impact.

Kansas City Chiefs
Prior to the onset of free agency, I had the team projected to use the first overall pick on TAMU OT Luke Joeckel.  Some of the draft pundits around the country had projected Geno Smith, the West Virginia QB in this slot.  Well the Chiefs franchised their current LT Braden Albert, who has strongly opposed a move to the right side.  The team also added QB Alex Smith via trade with San Francisco, and then added Chase Daniel as a backup.  They also signed corners Dunta Robinson and Sean Smith, TE Anthony Fasano, and DE Mike Devito.  I think the addition of the QBs and the CBs will preclude the Chiefs from using the first pick on Dee Milliner or Geno Smith.  The franchising of Albert may direct KC away from Joeckle too, as he really is best suited for LT.  This brings CMU OT Eric Fisher and Utah DT Star Lotulelei into the discussion.  Fisher can be used on either side of the line, and Lotulelei could be a Haloti Ngata type of DE in this defensive scheme.


Jacksonville Jaguars
The new regime in Jacksonville has opted out of being big players in the free agency market.  The team has made only a few small moves.  This means that all of the players who were in play for this organization on draft day should remain on their radar.  This bodes well for Florida DT Sharrif Floyd, who was last projected to Jacksonville at 2.  Bottom line is the Jags can sit tight and basically draft the best player available with the second pick, except for maybe LT, as this team has need just about everywhere.


Oakland Raiders
Based on what has happened so far, I think it is Oakland's non-moves that have impacted the draft more than their actual signings.  Sure this team has been somewhat active, but most of the signings have not been of impact players.  The single exception to this may be DT Pat Sims, and I emphasize the may in that sentence. Many of the experts have Oakland looking hard at Geno Smith with this pick, but I think the fact that the Raiders have not released incumbent QB Carson Palmer is quite telling. I think they will go into the 2013 season with Palmer and Pryor as their QBs.  This means they absolutely should be looking at CB Dee Milliner with the third overall pick.


Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles had some needs on defense already, and then they opened up free agency by letting go of Dominique Rodgers Cromartie and Nnamdi Asomugha giving them holes at both corner positions too.  They added former Giant, Kenny Phillips, and former Patriot, Patrick Chung to fill their safety holes, and they added CB Cary Williams to help at corner. NT, Issac Sopoaga was also added for beef up front in their new 3-4 scheme.  This still leaves OLB as the primary need for this franchise.  Former Houston Texan, Connor Barwin was added, and he will likely fill one of the OLB positions, but I still feel like drafting a OLB like Oregon's Dion Jordan makes sense at four.  Of course if Dee Milliner were to slip past Oakland at 3, I think the Eagles would have to look hard at him as a possibility.


Detroit Lions
So far in free agency, I really like what the Detroit Lions have done.  I like the Glover Quin addition at safety, and I think this will preclude the team from look at a safety in the second or third rounds now.  This impacts a guy like LSU's Eric Reid who I had projected to Detroit in the second round.  I absolutely love the addition of Reggie Bush to this offense.  I think he can flex his skills in this wide open offense, and I think it will impact Calvin Johnson in such a positive way.  This team still needs help at corner.  They resigned Chris Houston, who I do not love to begin with, so you have to think if Milliner were to fall, he would still be a serious consideration.  I also think OT is still in play here.  With longtime Lion Jeff Backus having retired, I really think the team will look hard at any one of the three top tackles available.  Joeckel, Fisher, Johnson could all be available, but likely only two of the three will be.


Cleveland Browns
The Browns made a splash into free agency early on the first day, and locked up former Baltimore Raven, Paul Kruger to play OLB for them.  Then later in the week, the team added Quentin Groves, who also plays the same position, albeit in more of a role playing/backup capacity.  I think this could really impact my suggestion of the Browns taking Jarvis Jones with the sixth pick.  With the team playing a 3-4 defense in 2013, I now think Star Lotulelei has to be a big consideration with this pick.  I also think that the two OGs, Warmack and Cooper, will get some discussion, and of course should Milliner fall, he would be in the mix as well.


Arizona Cardinals
Just yesterday, the Arizona Cardinals made official what everyone else already knew.  Kevin Kolb is not the QB of the future for this team.  The Cardinals are among a group of QB needy teams in the top half of the draft, and it would not surprise me if they looked at reaching for a QB here.  I think this would be a mistake, because as I have said before, I do not believe there is a QB worthy of a first round selection in this draft.  Nothing that the Cards have done thus far in free agency should impact what they should do with their first three or so picks.  I like the Rashard Mendenhall signing, but it should not change their draft plan.  To me, the smart move would to still look to firm up their o-line.  Getting one of the three top players (Joeckel, Fisher, or Johnson) would net the team the best value at 7.


Buffalo Bills
To me, the Bills offseason thus far has been more about the losses than the gains.  The team let go of solid OG Andy Levitre and QB Ryan Fitzpatrick.  I think what will happen is that Buffalo will reach for a QB with the 8th overall selection.  I think many of the same characters that are in play with the Cards will get consideration here.  Unfortunately for Buffalo, that is not what I think they should do.  I think looking at both Warmack and Cooper makes sense.  I also think that Jarvis Jones and Barkevious Mingo should get a long look too.  Both of these OLBs come with some risk, but both also have the potential for serious upside too.


New York Jets
The Jets are an absolute mess right now.  The team has lost so many contributors this offseason, that it is going to be hard to find an area where they couldn't use some help.  So far all the team as really added is RB Mike Goodson.  Comparing him to the loss of RB Shonn Green, and it seems like a wash.  This means RB is still a need, but not here.  The resigning of Santonio Holmes likely means my suggestion of Tennessee WR, Cordarrelle Patterson will not happen.  Instead, the Jets need to look at best available.  If Fisher or Johnson were to fall, they should most certainly move in that direction.  Jarvis Jones, and Barkevious Mingo also make some sense here too.  Should the Jets finally decide to actually deal Revis, then Xavier Rhodes becomes a consideration too.


Tennessee Titans
Right out of the gate, the Tennessee Titans started making moves, and impactful ones at that. They added former Bill, Andy Levitre early, and this will no doubt preclude the team from adding Chance Warmack as I previously had suggested. They also added former Niner, Delanie Walker at TE to replace Jared Cook, now with the Rams.  I'm not sold on this as a wash, but they very well could be.  This leaves Tennessee in a very flexible situation with their draft.  All of their needs are of similar urgency, leaving them to take what falls into their laps.  They would like to come away from the draft having added a corner, safety, center, and despite recent additions, probably a TE and MLB too.  They will be in an optimal position to trade down should they find a trading partner, or simply grab what is available to them.



San Diego Chargers
The Bolts have made a bunch of "under the radar" type move this offseason, some which I liked, and some which I didn't.  I like the addition of Derek Cox at corner, and I think this could impact a guy like NC State's David Amerson, who I previously had tabbed to San Diego in round two.  I did not like the addition of King Dunlap at OT though, and I still see this as a real need.  For the Chargers, I still feel their focus needs to be up front.  I think the loss of OG Louis Vasquez will hurt this franchise.  Although not a star, he is a solid ball player, and losing him makes a position of need even more so.  I still like the Chargers to grab either Warmack or Cooper with their first round pick, and then look to fill needs at ILB and S with their next few selections.


Miami Dolphins
It was no secrete that Miami wanted to add speed on the outside, and that they coveted Pittsburgh wideout Mike Wallace.  Right out of the gate, the Phins landed their man, and then surprised a lot of folks by adding the young Dannell Ellerby from Baltimore too.  Despite filling some needs, the Phins still have some other holes to address.  Corner is still a concern, especially considering Sean Smith is now in KC.  Help at OT could be needed if Jake Long ever does actually sign in STL.  Even help at safety or TE could be an option, as Chris Clemons and Dustin Keller were inked, but only for a year each.  In the end, I think Miami would be best served to add a guy like Xavier Rhodes if he were to still be available.


Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Like the Dolphins, the needs of the Bucs have been well chronicled.  Their secondary was a wreck last year, and requires changes at every spot save the safety position manned by last seasons top pick, Mark Barron.  This offseason, the Bucs targeted former Niner, Dashon Goldson, and landed their man.  This addresses the other safety position, but still leaves gaping holes at both corner spots.  Xavier Rhodes would be an idea target, but I suspect the Bucs will need to trade up (maybe with Tennessee) to land him.  Instead, my suggestion is the Bucs use this pick in a package to lure Revis away from the Jets.  Sure there is some risk with this strategy, but the rewards could be epic.  If that is not the move, a possible reach for Desmond Trufant, or the addition of a guys like Bjoern Warner or Zeke Ansah make some sense too.


Carolina Panthers
In my most recent mock, I had the Panthers adding Star Lotulelei to fill their need at DT.  Now, it looks like he may not be available for them here.  This team could still look to add a DT, like Sheldon Richardson for example if that is what they want.  However, based on some of the changes in front of them, I think they will also have to seriously consider adding a guy like Cordarrelle Patterson if he should still be available.  This team has to get another target for Can Newton other than Steve Smith, and Patterson could be that guy.  They could then look in the second or third round to fill out their defensive front as those positions are quite deep.


New Orleans Saints
The Saints are another team that has not been particularly active in free agency thus far.  They added CB Keenan Lewis from Pittsburgh, which I like.  Some will argue that losing Jermon Bushrod to Chicago will hurt this team, but I am not overly impressed with Bushrod.  I see him a very replaceable   Having said all that, the Saints are still a very talented team, and have flexibility with this pick.  Previous mocks show the Saints taking Bjoern Warner with this pick, and I still see that as a real possibility.  Should a guy like Zeke Ansah fall, I imagine that Sean Payton would sprint the pick to the podium himself.


St Louis Rams
Thanks to the RG3 deal a year ago, the Rams have two first round picks, and they will take advantage of both of them during this draft.  This offseason has seen them add Jared Cook at TE, which is a move I really like.  They are also close to a deal with Jake Long, which would also make for a good addition.  Unfortunately, the team also lost longtime RB Steven Jackson to ATL, and oft injured but very talented WR Danny Amendola to NE.  Although it was smart to not overpay to keep either player, they still leave some holes to fill.  With their two first rounders, I think they will still look to acquire UNC OG, Jonathan Cooper, should he be available.  Other considerations will include a WR like West Virginia's Tavon Austin or Cal's Keenan Allen; Texas S, Kenny Vaccaro, or even K-State OLB, Arthur Brown, who is quickly rising up draft boards, including mine.


Pittsburgh Steelers
The Pittsburgh Steelers are one of the NFL's best run franchises.  Despite this, for the first time that I can remember, I am feeling like the Steelers could be in some trouble.  This team has lost a lot over the past year.  Their secondary has holes, especially at corner.  Their defensive front is not nearly as scary as it used to be, especially without James Harrison or Casey Hampton, and if the Patriots do in fact make a play at Emmanuel Sanders, that means Roethlisberger would start 2013 without two of his top three targets from a year ago.  Needless to say, Pittsburgh could go in a lot of different directions when they come on the clock in the first round.  A big body in the middle like Ohio State's Johnathan Hankins, or a wide out on the edge like the aforementioned Austin or Allen all make sense.  Arthur Brown could get a look, or even Desmond Trufant at corner.  Bottom line, Pittsburgh will have some options.


Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys have been very inactive during free agency thus far.  This means the team still has pretty much all the same needs as they did a month ago.  My previous mocks have had Dallas all over the board.  Most recently, Sheldon Richardson was the suggested selection, and that still makes sense.  So does another OLB to study behind Ware.  Kenny Vaccaro could also be a consideration if he falls.  I still expect the pick to be defense, but its hard to project exactly where it will be.


New York Giants
Since the start of free agency the Giants have been busy adding players, but it is the two players that they have lost thus far which I think are going to make the biggest impact.  Martellus Bennet and Kenny Phillips were not stars, but their departure does leave holes that have to be filled.  Luckily for the G-men, Notre Dame TE, Tyler Eifert, should still be available.  Also to get some consideration will be Kenny Vaccaro (if he falls), and ILBs Alec Ogletree and Kevin Minter.  The Giants have some holes to fill if they want to return to the title chase, but they are in a good position during the draft to do exactly that.


Chicago Bears
Oh please lord, someone help me to convince the Chicago faithful that Jermon Bushrod does not mean that the o-line needs for this team have been filled.  Bushrod is average, at best, and the team has to give Cutler some real protection if this offense is to be successful.  Despit the Bushrod signing, I still feel that DJ Fluker, the OT from Alabama, still makes a lot of sense.  I also think the team will have to consider Ogletree or Minter to be the replacement for Urlacher, and Arthur Brown to help bolster the OLB position too.  If the Bears do in fact go defense in round one (not necessarily a mistake), they still have to target o-line help in two of the next three rounds.


Cincinnati Bengals
Cincinnati is one of the teams that has had a lot of movement, but nothing that will translate into real value thus far.  This means the team still could go in a bunch of different directions with this pick.  They still need another RB to add to the roster, as well as an additional WR for Andy Dalton.  They could also use some help on the o-line, and in the middle of the defense too.  With Andre Smith hitting the open market, I think DJ Fluker and FSU's Menelik Watson could be considerations for the Bengals at OT. A WR like Austin, Allen, Clemson's DeAndre Hopkins or USC's Robert Woods may also come into the picture.


Washington Redskins
Although the Skins don't pick here, I'm going to talk about them because I have already addressed the Rams who own this selection.  In my opinion, the top needs for the Redskins are at corner, center and ILB.  There limited moves in free agency thus far have done nothing to address this.  Since their first pick isn't until 53rd overall, they will wait and see what is available.  Guys like Rutgers CB Logan Ryan, NC State's David Amerson, Wisconsin C Travis Frederick, and even Florida safety Matt Elam (if he falls) may all be in play in the middle of round 2.


Minnesota Vikings
After trading Percy Harvin to Seattle, the Vikings are left with two first round picks, and a very pick need at WR.  You have to imagine that Austin, Allen, Hopkins, and Woods will have to get real consideration, with one of them being picked with one of the two picks the Vikes have.  Considering the only addition the team has made in free agency thus far has been to add former Chief, Matt Cassel to come in to compete with Christian Ponder at QB, their other needs are still there.  CB, DE, and all LB positions still have to be addressed, so names like Arthur Brown, TAMU DE Demontre Moore, SMU DE Margus Hunt, FSU DE Tank Carradine, Desmond Trufant, and UConn CB Blidi Wreh Wilson could all be in the discussion.


Indianapolis Colts
I really like what the Colts have done so far in free agency.  They have made a lot of smart moves, adding players who you may not have heard of, but who fit their system and are very good.  Erik Walden, LaRon Landry, Ricky Jean Francios, Gosder Cherilus, and Lawrence Sidbury will all be real contributors for this team.  Still, the Colts have some holes that should be addressed, and thus guys like Menelik Watson at OT, Alec Ogletree or Kevin Minter at ILB have to be thought of as the top choices available.  Corner is another direction the team could go if they believe that a guy like Trufant or Wreh Wilson provide them with the most value at this pick.


Seattle Seahawks
Like the Skins, the Hawks do not have a first round pick.  They used the pick to acquire Percy Harvin, which I think was an excellent move for this franchise.  They have also added some great talent including former Lion, Cliff Avril and former Buc, Michael Bennett, which has addressed a need on the defensive front.  With their initial selection not coming till the back end of the second round, the Hawks can simply wait and try and grab the best player available at the time.  Players like Texas OLB Alex Okafor, Kentucky OG Larry Warford, and UCLA hybrid Datone Jones all could be available.


Green Bay Packers
At this point in free agency, the Packers have added absolutely no one new to their roster.  They were in discussion with Steven Jackson, before he signed with Atlanta, to fill their need at RB, but clearly that didn't work out.  This means Eddy Lacy, from the national champion Crimson Tide, could come into play here late i the first round.  The team will also likely look at players in the secondary, including Trufant, Wreh Wilson, and safeties John Cyprien from FIU, Eric Reid from LSU, and Matt Elam from UF.  Future Hall-of-Famer, Charles Woodson, is now gone, so one of those guys could be looked at to try and fill the void.


Houston Texans
Like Green Bay, Houston is a talented team, that has not added anyone uring free agency as of now.  They have however, lost a few players, including TE James Casey, OLB Connor Barwin, S Glover Quin, and WR Kevin Walter.  None of these losses are crippling  but all need to be addressed.  As a result, the team could look at one of the safeties that Green Bay lets pass, but word on the street right now is that they may instead tap former Raven Ed Reed to fill that hole.  To me, this would leave WR and DE as targets, as well as OT which has yet to be addresses.  Hopkins, Woods, and Tennessee's Justin Hunter all make sense at this point in the draft, and I could see anyone of these guys fitting the bill.


Denver Broncos
How about the offseson that Denver is having... for the second straight year. Last year, Elway added Manning.  This year he has added Wes Welker, Dominique Rodgers Cromartie, and Louis Vasquez.  DRC helps address a team need at corner, and both Welker and Vasquez strengthen the Broncos while weakening division and conference rivals.  Denver could still use some additional help on their defense, and my previous Mock's suggestion of Purdue DT Kawann Short still holds water. Tank Carradine and Margus Hunt, and Stanford TE Zach Ertz are also names that John Elway should consider with this pick.


New England Patriots
Every year the Pats suffer losses that I seem to think will hurt the team, yet somehow the next guy in line steps up and becomes just as good.  The loss of Welker would hurt, but if Amendola can stay healthy, the Pats could be even stronger.  New England has also added former Seahawk, Leon Washington to fill the Kevin Faulk role for this team, and they are currently talking with all kinds of veteran free agents including Dwight Freeny, John Abraham, and Adrian Wilson.  New England's biggest needs are still on the interior of their offensive front, and although the experts don't project it, I still love the fit of Alabama C, Barrett Jones in New England. Considering how active New England is during draft weekend, I would not be surprised to see them deal this pick either.


Atlanta Falcons
At the start of free agency, Atlanta received the best news they could have hoped for.  Future Hall-of-Fame TE Tony Gonzalez has decided to return for a seventeenth season in the NFL.  He will be a welcome sight for this offense as they try and make a super bowl run next year.  Still, Gonzalez is clearly at the end of his career, and picking his replacement is a very good idea.  Zach Ertz makes a whole lot of sense for this team.  A DE like Tank Carradine, or Margus Hunt also could make sense for the Dirty Birds at this juncture as well.


San Francisco 49ers
Boy is the arms race on in the NFC West.  San Fran and Seattle are each working hard to become the favorite in the NFC.  The day after Seattle added Percy Harvin, the Niners went out and added Anquan Boldin.  Then in free agency, the team added DE Glen Dorsey from KC.  They have also had losses too.  S Dashon Goldson is now  in Tampa, and this leaves safety as the team's biggest need.  Guys like Cyprien, Reid, and Elam, all could be considerations in the first.  Remember this team has more than 10 picks after this one, including the second pick of the second round (due to the Alex Smith deal), so they have the flexibility to maneuver as they want come draft day.


Baltimore Ravens
The defending Super Bowl champs have had a tumultuous start to their offseason.  Ray Lewis and Matt Birk have retired, and Paul Kruger, Anquan Boldin, Ed Reed, and Dannell Ellerby are all going to be playing somewhere else next year.  So, despite being the defending champs, this team seems to have a number of holes.  Come draft day the team could look at ILB, S, or C as priorities.  Embattled Notre Dame LB, Mantei Te'o (or Ogletree or Minter) could get the call.  Of course the team could instead look to one of the safeties (Cyprien, Reid, Elam) in round 1.  Either way, all three of the above mentioned positions must be addressed.  The addition of Chris Canty via free agency, while nice, does nothing to fill the team's real needs.  But then again, in Baltimore it is said, "In Ozzie We Trust", and with very good reason.