Let me start this off with a thank you. Thank you to all who have continued to read, and thanks to everyone who is passing on the word, as my readership continues to grow. But since there are so many new readers, let me review some ground rules of my mocks before we get into it.
My mock drafts DO NOT review what I think is going to happen on draft day. I'm not trying predict anything. Instead, my mocks espouse what I think
should happen. I place myself in the role of GM for each team and I pick as I would if I were on the clock, based on my perception of team need, and the overall value the I have on each player (I rate players on a scale of 0-200).
The other thing I want to share is a few terms I may use throughout. When I say ADP, that means Average Draft Position. There are other evaluators whose opinions I really trust. I keep track of their mocks, and the ADP represents the average of their mocks. On a side note, this year's draft is loaded with starting NFL caliber talent at almost every position, other than QB. As a result, there is absolutely zero concensus amongst the evaluators about who should, or will go where.
Free agency has not yet begun, and once that player movement begins things will change, however, now that the combine is in the books, lets go three rounds deep and see what I think should happen with 2013 NFL draft.
1. Kansas City Chiefs – Luke Joeckel, OT, TAMU
Andy Reid is the new boss in town, and this team needs some rebuilding. Alex Smith is going to be Reid's new QB, and now they need another big fella up front to keep him upright. This Chiefs team has talent, as evidenced by the six pro-bowlers from a year ago. Adding Smith and Joeckel could have this team closer to the playoffs than the first overall pick this time next year.
2. Jacksonville Jaguars – Sharrif Floyd, DT, Florida
The Jags are in a great position in this draft. They can simply take the best player available that is not a OT. The answer thus is Florida, DT, Sharrif Floyd. He holds a tentative hold on the top DT position, and although UGA DE/LB Jarvis Jones is equally as talented, his decision to not participate in the combine hurt his stock some. Floyd can be a disruptive force in the middle and can be a cornerstone for Jacksonville and new HC Gus Bradley to build around.
3. Oakland Raiders – Dee Milliner, CB, Alabama
This pick is where those who are tied up in what WILL happen will disagree with me. Many have the Raiders picking QB, Geno Smith. Although that may be what happens, it is not what SHOULD happen. Dee Milliner was the best corner in the nation this year, on the best defense in the country, against the best competition anywhere. Milliner can do everything you want from a corner, and I think he will be a great addition to the Oakland secondary. Milliner is one of the best players on my overall board, and could be a big time anchor in this secondary which is in need of a rebuild.
4. Philadelphia Eagles – Dion Jordan, DE, Oregon
During the combine, new Eagles HC Chip Kelly called Dion Jordan a "special" player. Who better then for the Eagles to draft with this pick then Kelly's former college standout. Jordan verified his athletic prowess during his combine, and he fits a need for this Philly defense. I think this make perfect sense.
5. Detroit Lions – Lane Johnson, OT, Oklahoma
If what I say should happen, were to happen, the Lions would be very disappointed. Their top target is Alabama, CB, Dee Milliner, but in this mock he is gone. The Lions could try and trade down a bit, but I'm not sure there would be any takers. This leaves them in a position to take the best available player. Many rate Eric Fisher ahead of Lane Johnson, but I have Johnson rated just a bit ahead. I think Johnson is a potential stud, and with the Lions OTs getting a bit long in the tooth, this helps them prepare for the future.
6. Cleveland Browns – Jarvis Jones, DE, Georgia
Cleveland is again in the position of the rebuilding franchise. When you are in that position, you have to make top ten picks count. Jarvis Jones is one of the top defensive players in the whole nation. His stock took a small hit because of his not performing at the combine, but this guy simply plays football. He plays with a fervor that is unusual, and I think he will be a standout in the NFL.
7. Arizona Cardinals - Eric Fisher, OT, Central Michigan
Word is that Arizona has been smitten with USC, QB, Matt Barkley. Word is they will take him here with the seventh overall selection. I know they need QB help, but taking Barkely here would be a stretch. Instead, what the Cards should do is to take the elite OT from Central Michigan. He would be a building block for this o-line, and will make whomever the signal caller is for this franchise better in the future.
8. Buffalo Bills - Barkevious Mingo, DE, LSU
The Buffalo Bills have holes on both sides of the ball, but are still a team who could be on the rise this year. This team could go in a few different directions with this pick, but I see Mingo as the best available option for this franchise. He is athletic, talented, and has a nice upside too. I think adding him to the defense upgrades this unit considerably. Then they can spend their next few picks on the offensive side of the ball.
9. New York Jets - Cordarrelle Patterson, WR, Tennessee
The Jets could use an upgrade at a few different positions. With the three top OTs already off the board, and no QB worth this pick, the Jets will be hoping that Patterson would fall to them. In this scenario, he does. Patterson is a bit raw, but he is a big time upside player. Last season the Jets were in a world of trouble after Santonio Holmes went down. Patterson gives this team a viable alternative. It may take some time for him to pan out, but it will be worth the wait. And for those who are going to ask, yes the team did take Stephen Hill a year ago, and yes he is very fast, but no he is not the answer.
10. Tennessee Titans - Chance Warmack, OG, Alabama
The Titans are a team that is making progress. It may not be as fast as some would like, but I do think this team is moving in the right overall direction. Jake Locker is emerging as the leader of the future for this franchise, and to help him along the team needs to do a better job at protecting him. Although they do have some needs at the tackle spot, I see the need inside to be greater. Chance Warmack is one of the best college guards to come out of college football... ever. Despite a poor showing at the combine, he is still a value selection at this juncture. If he reaches his full potential, he will be a difference maker.
11. San Diego Chargers - Jonathan Cooper, OG, North Carolina
The Chargers are a team with some talent, but some holes too. They have replaced the front office and coaching staff, and now they need to add some more talent to this roster. Although they have some bigger needs in some other areas, Jonathan Cooper offers a real value with this pick. He is the kind of player who could anchor a front for many years. This would be a big assistance to Phillip Rivers and the offense.
12. Miami Dolphins – Xavier Rhodes, CB, Florida State
Miami took some steps forward in 2012, but they have some holes still to be filled. The most noticeable right now are at wide out, corner, and safety. After the combine was figured into the equation, Xavier Rhodes projects to be the best of the those players available. He is really a very good player, but as was said during the combine, this guy did not apply himself 100% on every play. If the Dolphins coaching staff can coach him up to become a high effort ball player, he could be very special at the corner position for this franchise for the next decade.
13. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Ziggy Ansah, DE, BYU
Last year the Bucs began to address their secondary with Mark Barron. Now they really need to add more help in this spot, but with Miami having chosen Rhodes, they are left in a bit of a bind. Marcus Trufant is the next best corner on my board, but at this point in the draft he is not a value pick. Instead, The Bucs will maximize value by taking Ziggy Ansah. Ansah had an incredible combine, and established himself as a legit defensive playmaker. He is raw, but has incredible upside and I think the Bucs will find many creative ways to use his exceptional athleticism to help their young defense.
14. Carolina Panthers - Star Lotulelei, DT, Utah
Star Lotulelei has been a mainstay on my big board since the "Way Way Too Early Mock" from last April. His stock recently took a bit of a hit when it was discovered he has a heart condition. It appears that this may in fact be nothing of concern, but he still has a little ground to make up now. For him to fall to the Panthers at this point would be exceptional value for the franchise, and I see no way they would let him fall any further. He is simply too good, and can be very good for a long time.
15. New Orleans Saints -Bjoern Warner, DE, Florida State
For the second straight mock, the Saints are in a position to land Bjoern Warner with this pick. When I watch Warner on tape, some plays I see an unstoppable force with top 5 talent. On other plays however, I see a guy not living up to expectations. I think his absence for real explosion will keep him outside of the top 10, but at 15 he is a worth while risk.
16. St Louis Rams - Kenny Vacarro, S, Texas
The Rams made some strides from a year ago, but now they need to capitalize on another draft to continue to rebuild. I think this team's ultimate scenario would allow for them to pick Jonathan Cooper with this pick, but with him gone, they need to look elsewhere. Despite his stock falling a bit, Vaccaro is still the top safety on my board. He has some upside, but his combine left me with more questions than answers. I also think Jeff Fisher has a great way of bringing out the best in players though, so I see this as a pretty good pick for the team here in the middle of the first round.
17. Pittsburgh Steelers - Johnathan Hankins, DT Ohio State
Pittsburgh was hit very hard by injuries this past season, so their record is not really reflective of their talent level. This gives Pittsburgh flexibility with this pick. They will look at both corner and running back, but in the end choose Hankins as the heir apparent in the middle of their defensive front. He is a highly regarded prospect who should do a good job filling up the middle. I do have him somewhat overvalued as compared to his ADP, but I do like what he brings to the table.
18. Dallas Cowboys - Sheldon Richardson, DT, Missouri
Dallas is such an enigma. Every year they seem to have the talent to make a run, and every year they somehow disappoint the fans in Big D. Like some other teams, the Boys have some real talent, so they can be flexible with this selection. Richardson is very strong at the point of attack and I see him a contributor on the Dallas defense right away. Winning games still starts in the trenches, and I like Richardson's ability to win battles there on a regular basis.
19. New York Giants - Tyler Eifert, TE, Notre Dame
The Giants disappointed many this year when they failed to make the playoffs only one season after winning the Super Bowl. Overall, the team failed to perform at a few different positions and could use an upgrade. Eli Manning struggled a bit last year, so I see o-line as a real consideration here. Having said that, getting another weapon who can exploit the seam could also make an impact on Manning's game, and thus the offense as a whole. I still have Eifert as the top TE on my board, and this is a nice fit for the G-Men.
20. Chicago Bears - DJ Fluker, OT, Alabama
The biggest issue the Bears have faced over the last three seasons is the porous o-line they have. This has created erratic play from Cutler, and thus, inconsistent results. This team's o-line needs are primarily at tackle. Fluker is an intriguing prospect whose value is all over the board. Some have him downgraded because of an inconsistent effort. I really like his on-field production though, and I see him with a mid/late round 1 grade. If he lives up to his potential, this would be considered a real value in a few years.
21. Cincinnati Bengals - Tavon Austin, WR, West Virginia
The Bengals continue to improve. They still have some holes though. With the talent still on the board, adding Tavon Austin would be a big addition. His combine performance confirmed what was already suspected. This kid is fast. Combined with the failure of Keenan Allen to participate, Austin has moved into the number two WR spot on my board. Putting him on the other side of AJ Green, with Sanu in the slot could be a scary prospect for Cincy opponents to have to cover. Austin is a bit undersized, but his ability to take the top off a defense just can't be ignored.
22. St Louis Rams via Washington - Keenan Allen, WR, California
Reliable hands. That is what the Rams will be losing should Danny Amendola leave town. That is also exactly what Keenan Allen brings to the table. He is not the fastest target, but he catches what is thrown his way. With the aptly named Brian Quick already in the fold from a year ago, adding Allen would give Sam Bradford some real good,young weapons.
23. Minnesota Vikings - Margus Hunt, DE, SMU
Minnesota was considerably better this year than I anticipated. They still have some room to grow though. I'm still not a fan of Ponder under center, but I on't see them replacing him with this pick. Instead, I see them looking to the defensive side of the ball. Margus Hunt's stock has been skyrocketing as a result of his exceptional combine performance, and I now see him as a late first round talent. He has the athletic ability, but he is raw. If Frazier takes some time with Hunt, this pick could really payoff.
24. Indianapolis Colts - Menelik Watson, OT, Florida State
Andrew Luck was hit more times than any other QB last year, so the Colts have to protect their budding superstar. Menelik Watson is the offensive equivalent to Ezekiel Ansah. He is raw but immensely talented. Adding a talent like this who could develop alongside some of the other Colts stars could be a match made in heaven.
25. Seattle Seahawks - Demontre Moore, DE, TAMU
Whereas guys like Ansah and Hunt were boosted by their combine perfromance, Moore was hurt by his. His poor showing sent me back to the tapes, and uopn second inspection, I have determined his high motor disguised some short comings in his play, and talent. I'm not suggesting he is a poor player, just not as good as I initially thought. The Seahawks are now in a position to take advantage of this situation. They can add a guy with Moore's intensity and upside, and not have to trade up to do it. The Seattle is a team that is close, and adding Moore here will get them closer.
26. Green Bay Packers - Desmond Trufant, CB, Washington
The Pack was a little disappointing to me this year, as they began the year as my favorite for the Super Bowl. Despite not winning it all, they are still a very good team, who only needs a few pieces for it to all come together. Adding a stud RB should be their top priority, but there is not a RB worth taking at this point. Eddy Lacy could get consideration though. Adding some depth at corner and linebacker would be their next look, and Desmond Trufant has all of the skills necessary to be an immediate contributor. Charles Woodson has been released, so this team will need to add some talent, and Trufant is exactly that.
27. Houston Texans - Tank Carradine, DE, FSU
If not for injuries, we would have been talking about Tank Carradine coming off the board much, much earlier. He is a very talented, DE who never quite reached his potential at FSU due to injuries. This kid as a tremendous upside. He is very strong, holds up well at the point of attack, and can play both the run and the pass effectively. Opposite a stud like JJ Watt, this would make for a very intimidating defensive front for the rising Houston Texans.
28. Denver Broncos - Kawann Short, DT, Purdue
The Denver Broncos are in a position to simply look to add the best player on the board with this pick. There are a handful of guys who could fit the bill, but based on my ratings, Kawann Short has the best upside of the bunch. Unfortunately, he is a boom/bust type player. His talent is there, but his effort is inconsistent. Still I think the allure of his upside will be very tempting for John Fox, and he will push to add this young man to his defensive front.
29. New England Patriots - Barrett Jones, OL, Alabama
As compared to the ADP I have Barrett Jones as one of the most overrated players in this draft class, but I really like what he brings to the table. He is a very good leader, who has the flexibility to play anywhere on the o-line. There are some durability concerns, and he didn't participate at the combine because of some injuries, but this guy wouldn't have measured tremendously even if he did participate Despite this, Jones is a football player, and I think he would fit New England's system very well.
30. Atlanta Falcons - Zach Ertz, TE, Stanford
Last year, Stanford TE Coby Fleener was the top name in the NFL draft amongst TEs. Good for him, because although he was an Andrew Luck favorite, he was not the best TE on that Cardinal team. That honor belongs to Zach Ertz. Ertz would be joing a team that Hall-of-Famer to be Tony Gonzalez is leaving. This team has some real dynamic weapons, and played good football this year. If Ertz can come in and mostly replace Gonzalez, this team could push again.
31. San Francisco 49ers – John Cyprien, S, Florida International
Despite losing the Super Bowl, I think San Fran has a better shot at returning to the big game next year than the defending champs do. This is a very good team, and they have the freedom to pick the best player available. With the skill set that John Cyprien has, I believe he would be the pick. Especially considering the uncertainty of the Niners being able to return all of their starters in the secondary from a year ago. Despite playing at a small school, Cyprien brings big time talent.
32. Baltimore Ravens - Mantei Te'o, ILB, Notre Dame
The Raven are the champs thanks to a masterful playoff run. It surprised some, but remember that I had them as the AFC Champs at the start of the season. Ray Lewis is now retired, and it is a must to replace him. Te'o has been on a downward spiral since the National Title game, but I think it will stop here. The Ravens need a new presence in the middle of the defense, and Te'o can try and rebuild his reputation on a championship ball club.
33. Jacksonville Jaguars - Geno Smith, QB, West Virginia
34. San Francisco 49ers via Kansas City - Robert Woods, WR, USC
35. Philadelphia Eagles - Dallas Thomas, OT, Tennessee
36. Detroit Lions - Eric Reid, S, LSU
37. Cincinnati Bengals via Oakland - Eddy Lacy, RB, Alabama
38. Arizona Cardinals - Matt Barkley, QB, USC
39. Cleveland Browns - Pick Forfeited
40. New York Jets - Justin Pugh, OT, Syracuse
41. Tennessee Titans - Johnathan Banks, CB, Mississippi State
42. Buffalo Bills - Tyler Wilson, QB, Arkansas
43. Miami Dolphins - Justin Hunter, WR, Tennessee
44. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Blidi Wreh Wilson, CB, UConn
45. Carolina Panthers - DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Clemson
46. New Orleans Saints - Pick Forfeited
47. San Diego Chargers - David Amerson, CB, NC State
48. St Louis Rams - Arthur Brown, LB, Kansas State
49. Dallas Cowboys - Matt Elam, S, Florida
50. Pittsburgh Steelers - Marquise Goodwin, WR, Texas
51. New York Giants - Alec Ogletree, LB, Georgia
52. Chicago Bears - Kevin Minter, LB, LSU
53. Washington Redskins - Jordan Poyer, S, Oregon State
54. Minnesota Vikings - Logan Ryan, CB, Rutgers
55. Cincinnati Bengals - Travis Frederick, C, Wisconsin
56. Miami Dolphins via Indianapolis - Vance McDonald, TE, Rice
57. Green Bay Packers - Alex Okafor, DE/OLB, Texas
58. Seattle Seahawks - Ryan Swope, WR, TAMU
59. Houston Texans - Terrance Williams, WR, Baylor
60. Denver Broncos - Jordan Reed, TE, Florida
61. New England Patriots - Quinton Patton, WR, La Tech
62. Atlanta Falcons - Joseph Randle, RB, Oklahoma State
63. San Francisco 49ers - Larry Warford, OG, Kentucky
64. Baltimore Ravens - DJ Swearinger, S, South Carolina
65. Kansas City Chiefs - Datone Jones, DE/OLB, UCLA
66. Jacksonville Jaguars - Brandon Jenkins, OLB, FSU
67. Detroit Lions - Kenny Stills, WR, Oklahoma
68. Oakland Raiders - Mike Glennon, QB, NC State
69. Philadelphia Eagles - Khaseem Green, LB, Rutgers
70. Cleveland Browns - Tyler Bray, QB, Tennessee
71. Arizona Cardinals - Chase Thomas, LB, Stanford
72. Tennessee Titans - TJ McDonald, S, USC
73. Buffalo Bills - Jordan Mills, OT, La Tech
74. New York Jets - Corey Lemonier, DE, Auburn
75. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - EJ Manuel, QB, Florida State
76. San Francisco 49ers via Miami - Tharold Simon, CB, LSU
77. New Orleans Saints - Jesse Williams, DT, Alabama
78. San Diego Chargers - Terron Armstead, OT, Arkansas Pine Bluff
79. Miami Dolphins - Sylvester Williams, DT, North Carolina
80. St Louis Rams - Gavin Escobar, TE, San Diego State
81. Pittsburgh Steelers - Marcus Lattimore, RB, South Carolina
82. Dallas Cowboys - Kyle Long, OG, Oregon
83. New York Giants - Oday Aboushi, OT, Virginia
84. Miami Dolphins via Chicago - Shamarko Thomas, S, Syracuse
85. Minnesota Vikings - Markus Wheaton, WR, Oregon State
86. Cincinnati Bengals - Quanterus Smith, DE, Western Kentucky
87. Washington Redskins - Meshak Williams, DE, Kansas State
88. Indianapolis Colts - Sam Montgomery, DE, LSU
89. Seattle Seahawks - Chris Faulk, OT, LSU
90. Green Bay Packers - Montee Ball, RB, Wisconsin
91. Houston Texans - AJ Klein, ILB, Iowa State
92. Denver Broncos - Robert Alford, CB, Southeastern Louisiana
93. New England Patriots - Dwayne Gratz, CB, UConn
94. Atlanta Falcons - Jamar Taylor, CB, Bosie State
95. San Francisco 49ers - William Gholston, DE, Michigan State
96. Baltimore Ravens - John Jenkins, DT, Georgia
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