Volatility

With the recent state of the world economy, investors are becoming more used to the massive amounts of volatility in the market place.  In the world that is the NFL, March always marks a month of volatility.  March brings with it the start of the NFL calendar year, and this means that teams begin making veteran cuts with the hopes the money saved can be used during free gency which opens up in March too.  Already this month we have been informed of the release of Tomlinson, Westbrook, and now Thomas Jones.

But also with March comes "stock" volatility, as typically the annual NFL combine closes up, and teams begin to shift players all over their draft boards based on their physical, mental, and emotional performances in Indy.  2010 is no different in this regard, and below is a look at some of these stocks who made an impact (both positive and negative) over the last few days.

On the Rise
Every season some players use the showcase that is the NFL Combine to propel themselves up draft boards, sometimes breaking into the first round thanks to some spectacular performances.  Below is a list of players who really helped themselves in Indy this week.

Golden Tate, WR, Notre Dame

Arguably, no player helped themselves more with their combine performance than Tate.  As many of you will remember I ripped Tate in a mock draft a few months back, but he sure showed up to play in Indy.  Top end speed was a big concern for teams when looking at the Notre Dame Wideout prior to the combine.  He ran well in Indy though, and quelled concerns for a lot of teams.  Many present said tate looked fluid in and out of his break, and used his hands well too. Coming into Indy, Tate held a late second / early third round grade in my book.  Now, he is an early two, maybe even a late first rounder.

Bruce Campbell, OT, Maryland

When a guy is 316 pounds, you don't expect chiseled, but when Campbell showed up in Indy, that is exactly what they saw.  This guy then went on to run a 4.85 in the 40, leap a 32" vertical, and pound out 34 reps  on the bench.  By the end of his time at the combine Campbell had so impressed with his physical tools, that teams will no doubt overlook some of his game tape on draft day.  Campbell was a fringe first round talent coming into the combine.  Now he holds a solid round 1 grade from me.

Taylor Mays, S, USC

I have been saying this in my mocks for sometime now, but Mays was primed to use Indy as a springboard to stop his fall, and start moving back up boards again.  He has all the physical tools to put on a show, and he certainly did not disappoint.  Mays did everything that he was asked to do, and did it well.  Then he went on to bolt down the track during his 40, halting stopwatches after only 4.28 seconds in some cases.  Although his "official" time was in the 4.4's, it is now widely accepted that the "official" clock was wrong considering the number of scouts who personally clocked him in the 4.3 range.  This performance should lock Mays in as a first round selection despite the increasing number of questions surrounding his game play this past year.

Jahvid Best, RB, California

Those of you who follow Football Futures know that I think highly of Jahvid Best.  I believe he has all of the tools necessary to become a "factor back" in the NFL.  Many "experts" however disagree with me, grading him out as a second round selection.  Best worked out very well in Indy, and impressed with his speed, footwork, breaks, and hands this week.  He was only confirming what I already knew.  This kid belongs in the first round in April.  If he stays healthy at the next level he will be a gem.

Derrick Morgan, DE, Georgia Tech

As the combine approached, the hype surrounding Morgan's top competitor, South Florida's Jason Pierre Paul, was reaching a fever pitch.  With immense upside, JPP had leaped Morgan as the top DE on most draft boards.  Then came Indy.  Morgan looked great at the combine, but more importantly, showcased the attribute that has him back in the top slot on my board, his polish.  The Morgan/Pierre Paul debate is starting to remind me of the Manning/Leaf saga from years ago.  On one hand we have a guy with immense physical skills and raw talent.  He bubbles over with upside.  On the other hand, you have an NFL ready option, who may not have quite the same ceiling.  Now, I am not trying to say JPP will flame out ala Ryan Leaf, but I do think the polish showed by Morgan makes him a safer bet next month.

Tim Tebow, QB, Florida

After Mobile, Tim Tebow had his stock plummet.  He needed a great combine to reclaim some spotlight, and that is exactly what he did, and he did it without throwing a single pass.  The former Gator is currently undergoing a rework of his maligned throwing motion, and thus he wasn't ready to toss the ball in Indy, but he did very well in his measurables, including a QB best performance in the vertical jump.  He also did an outstanding job of selling himself, his knowledge, and his dedication to the game during his interviews.  Tim is still pushing to be a QB at the next level, but his performance this weekend eased concerns about his ability to transition to another position should the need arise down the road.  Tebow jumped from a fourth rounder in my book, to a fringe second rounder now.

Everson Griffen, DE, USC

As many of you will recall, Griffen fell out of my first round mock this past month.  Mostly this was because I felt like Griffen was a tweener at the next level, and I was not convinced that he could hold up as a linebacker in space.  Well I now color myself corrected.  Griffen was dynamite in Indy erasing any concerns that I had about his ability to play the outside in a 3 man front scheme.  His speed and strength were just what I would like to see from a 3-4 backer, and with the right coaching, I see him succeeding on Sundays.

Jerry Hughes, DE, TCU

Like Griffen, my concerns about Hughes surrounded his ability to step outside at the next level.  As my most loyal followers will recall, at the start of the college football season, I had a lot of good things to say about Hughes.  Also just like Griffen, Hughes performance in Indy erased any concerns I have about his ability to play the OLB in a 3-4 at the next level.  He showed excellent speed and lateral quickness during his drills, and I now have Hughes carrying a solid second round grade heading into Pro-Days.






Solidification
Each year in Indy some player verify what we already knew about them, cementing their positioning in the process.  From this years crop, guys like Ndamukong Suh, CJ Spiller, Trent Williams, Bryan Bulaga, Mike Iuptai, Eric Berry, Gerald McCoy, Dez Bryant, Arellious Benn, Sean Witherspoon, and Dan Williams all delivered strong performances as expected.


Falling
Each year some players struggle a bit in Indy and these struggles result in them losing draft position, and the attached money, come draft day.  Below is a list of players who may have cost themselves some dollars this week.

Joe Haden, CB, Florida

Haden entered the combine as the clear number one at corner.  In fact, many folks had him as the only corner with a round one grade.  Unfortunately for Joe, his performance left scouts with more questions than answers.  His 40 time was slower than expected.  Now typically that is not an issue, as many guys "play" faster than they "run", but with a corner in a pass happy league, this is concerning.  Haden also did not look smooth coming in and out of his cuts, as it appeared he had some trouble opening up his hips to change direction.  Although he struggled, I still think Haden goes in round one, but he does need a great showing in Gainesville during Florida's Pro-Day later this month.

Jonathan Dwyer, RB, Georgia Tech

As many of you recall, Dwyer was a late first round selection in some of my previous mocks, but after this performance, Dwyer will be lucky to be picked in the top 60 now.  Not only were his measurables lower than expected, but he simply looked overwhelmed while running drills.  This does not bode well for the former Yellow Jacket.  Combine this with the good performances put in by the RB class as a whole, and now Dwyer has fallen from battling for the #2 RB position with Best to a tenuous #6 ranking behind Fresno State's Ryan Mathews, Heisman runner-up Toby Gerhart, and Tennessee's fast riser Montario Hardesty.

Rolando McClain, LB, Alabama

It is so hard to believe that an impact player like McClain could be falling, but he is.  Rolando chose not to work out in Indy, siting a previously undisclosed hamstring injury.  Because of the cloak-and-dagger games surrounding this injury, many scouts left Indy wondering if McClain was simply scared of underperforming and opted to sit instead. When guys leave you with questions after the combine, their Pro-Day becomes even more vital, and McClain has landed himself in this grouping now.  I still see him as a great addition to any squad, and on my board he has only taken a slight hit.

Anthony Davis, OT, Rutgers

The thing about Davis that was disappointing was that coming into the combine, he was on a meteoric rise up draft boards.  Then he shows up out of shape and sloppy.  This is a quick way to end a rise and start to fall.  Especially when you take into consideration the depth of the rest of the linemen available in this draft.  With guys like Okung, Bulaga, and Williams all looking good, Davis could have really impacted his potential first year earnings with this underwhelming showing this week.