What this article will look at is how all of this player movement has impacted the possible draft destinations for some of the players who are looking to be drafted next month. We will go team by team and look at what moves may have impacted the draft strategy, and which players this is most likely to impact.
Prior to the onset of free agency, I had the team projected to use the first overall pick on TAMU OT Luke Joeckel. Some of the draft pundits around the country had projected Geno Smith, the West Virginia QB in this slot. Well the Chiefs franchised their current LT Braden Albert, who has strongly opposed a move to the right side. The team also added QB Alex Smith via trade with San Francisco, and then added Chase Daniel as a backup. They also signed corners Dunta Robinson and Sean Smith, TE Anthony Fasano, and DE Mike Devito. I think the addition of the QBs and the CBs will preclude the Chiefs from using the first pick on Dee Milliner or Geno Smith. The franchising of Albert may direct KC away from Joeckle too, as he really is best suited for LT. This brings CMU OT Eric Fisher and Utah DT Star Lotulelei into the discussion. Fisher can be used on either side of the line, and Lotulelei could be a Haloti Ngata type of DE in this defensive scheme.
The new regime in Jacksonville has opted out of being big players in the free agency market. The team has made only a few small moves. This means that all of the players who were in play for this organization on draft day should remain on their radar. This bodes well for Florida DT Sharrif Floyd, who was last projected to Jacksonville at 2. Bottom line is the Jags can sit tight and basically draft the best player available with the second pick, except for maybe LT, as this team has need just about everywhere.
Based on what has happened so far, I think it is Oakland's non-moves that have impacted the draft more than their actual signings. Sure this team has been somewhat active, but most of the signings have not been of impact players. The single exception to this may be DT Pat Sims, and I emphasize the may in that sentence. Many of the experts have Oakland looking hard at Geno Smith with this pick, but I think the fact that the Raiders have not released incumbent QB Carson Palmer is quite telling. I think they will go into the 2013 season with Palmer and Pryor as their QBs. This means they absolutely should be looking at CB Dee Milliner with the third overall pick.
The Eagles had some needs on defense already, and then they opened up free agency by letting go of Dominique Rodgers Cromartie and Nnamdi Asomugha giving them holes at both corner positions too. They added former Giant, Kenny Phillips, and former Patriot, Patrick Chung to fill their safety holes, and they added CB Cary Williams to help at corner. NT, Issac Sopoaga was also added for beef up front in their new 3-4 scheme. This still leaves OLB as the primary need for this franchise. Former Houston Texan, Connor Barwin was added, and he will likely fill one of the OLB positions, but I still feel like drafting a OLB like Oregon's Dion Jordan makes sense at four. Of course if Dee Milliner were to slip past Oakland at 3, I think the Eagles would have to look hard at him as a possibility.
So far in free agency, I really like what the Detroit Lions have done. I like the Glover Quin addition at safety, and I think this will preclude the team from look at a safety in the second or third rounds now. This impacts a guy like LSU's Eric Reid who I had projected to Detroit in the second round. I absolutely love the addition of Reggie Bush to this offense. I think he can flex his skills in this wide open offense, and I think it will impact Calvin Johnson in such a positive way. This team still needs help at corner. They resigned Chris Houston, who I do not love to begin with, so you have to think if Milliner were to fall, he would still be a serious consideration. I also think OT is still in play here. With longtime Lion Jeff Backus having retired, I really think the team will look hard at any one of the three top tackles available. Joeckel, Fisher, Johnson could all be available, but likely only two of the three will be.
The Browns made a splash into free agency early on the first day, and locked up former Baltimore Raven, Paul Kruger to play OLB for them. Then later in the week, the team added Quentin Groves, who also plays the same position, albeit in more of a role playing/backup capacity. I think this could really impact my suggestion of the Browns taking Jarvis Jones with the sixth pick. With the team playing a 3-4 defense in 2013, I now think Star Lotulelei has to be a big consideration with this pick. I also think that the two OGs, Warmack and Cooper, will get some discussion, and of course should Milliner fall, he would be in the mix as well.
Just yesterday, the Arizona Cardinals made official what everyone else already knew. Kevin Kolb is not the QB of the future for this team. The Cardinals are among a group of QB needy teams in the top half of the draft, and it would not surprise me if they looked at reaching for a QB here. I think this would be a mistake, because as I have said before, I do not believe there is a QB worthy of a first round selection in this draft. Nothing that the Cards have done thus far in free agency should impact what they should do with their first three or so picks. I like the Rashard Mendenhall signing, but it should not change their draft plan. To me, the smart move would to still look to firm up their o-line. Getting one of the three top players (Joeckel, Fisher, or Johnson) would net the team the best value at 7.
To me, the Bills offseason thus far has been more about the losses than the gains. The team let go of solid OG Andy Levitre and QB Ryan Fitzpatrick. I think what will happen is that Buffalo will reach for a QB with the 8th overall selection. I think many of the same characters that are in play with the Cards will get consideration here. Unfortunately for Buffalo, that is not what I think they should do. I think looking at both Warmack and Cooper makes sense. I also think that Jarvis Jones and Barkevious Mingo should get a long look too. Both of these OLBs come with some risk, but both also have the potential for serious upside too.
The Jets are an absolute mess right now. The team has lost so many contributors this offseason, that it is going to be hard to find an area where they couldn't use some help. So far all the team as really added is RB Mike Goodson. Comparing him to the loss of RB Shonn Green, and it seems like a wash. This means RB is still a need, but not here. The resigning of Santonio Holmes likely means my suggestion of Tennessee WR, Cordarrelle Patterson will not happen. Instead, the Jets need to look at best available. If Fisher or Johnson were to fall, they should most certainly move in that direction. Jarvis Jones, and Barkevious Mingo also make some sense here too. Should the Jets finally decide to actually deal Revis, then Xavier Rhodes becomes a consideration too.
Right out of the gate, the Tennessee Titans started making moves, and impactful ones at that. They added former Bill, Andy Levitre early, and this will no doubt preclude the team from adding Chance Warmack as I previously had suggested. They also added former Niner, Delanie Walker at TE to replace Jared Cook, now with the Rams. I'm not sold on this as a wash, but they very well could be. This leaves Tennessee in a very flexible situation with their draft. All of their needs are of similar urgency, leaving them to take what falls into their laps. They would like to come away from the draft having added a corner, safety, center, and despite recent additions, probably a TE and MLB too. They will be in an optimal position to trade down should they find a trading partner, or simply grab what is available to them.
The Bolts have made a bunch of "under the radar" type move this offseason, some which I liked, and some which I didn't. I like the addition of Derek Cox at corner, and I think this could impact a guy like NC State's David Amerson, who I previously had tabbed to San Diego in round two. I did not like the addition of King Dunlap at OT though, and I still see this as a real need. For the Chargers, I still feel their focus needs to be up front. I think the loss of OG Louis Vasquez will hurt this franchise. Although not a star, he is a solid ball player, and losing him makes a position of need even more so. I still like the Chargers to grab either Warmack or Cooper with their first round pick, and then look to fill needs at ILB and S with their next few selections.
It was no secrete that Miami wanted to add speed on the outside, and that they coveted Pittsburgh wideout Mike Wallace. Right out of the gate, the Phins landed their man, and then surprised a lot of folks by adding the young Dannell Ellerby from Baltimore too. Despite filling some needs, the Phins still have some other holes to address. Corner is still a concern, especially considering Sean Smith is now in KC. Help at OT could be needed if Jake Long ever does actually sign in STL. Even help at safety or TE could be an option, as Chris Clemons and Dustin Keller were inked, but only for a year each. In the end, I think Miami would be best served to add a guy like Xavier Rhodes if he were to still be available.
Like the Dolphins, the needs of the Bucs have been well chronicled. Their secondary was a wreck last year, and requires changes at every spot save the safety position manned by last seasons top pick, Mark Barron. This offseason, the Bucs targeted former Niner, Dashon Goldson, and landed their man. This addresses the other safety position, but still leaves gaping holes at both corner spots. Xavier Rhodes would be an idea target, but I suspect the Bucs will need to trade up (maybe with Tennessee) to land him. Instead, my suggestion is the Bucs use this pick in a package to lure Revis away from the Jets. Sure there is some risk with this strategy, but the rewards could be epic. If that is not the move, a possible reach for Desmond Trufant, or the addition of a guys like Bjoern Warner or Zeke Ansah make some sense too.
In my most recent mock, I had the Panthers adding Star Lotulelei to fill their need at DT. Now, it looks like he may not be available for them here. This team could still look to add a DT, like Sheldon Richardson for example if that is what they want. However, based on some of the changes in front of them, I think they will also have to seriously consider adding a guy like Cordarrelle Patterson if he should still be available. This team has to get another target for Can Newton other than Steve Smith, and Patterson could be that guy. They could then look in the second or third round to fill out their defensive front as those positions are quite deep.
The Saints are another team that has not been particularly active in free agency thus far. They added CB Keenan Lewis from Pittsburgh, which I like. Some will argue that losing Jermon Bushrod to Chicago will hurt this team, but I am not overly impressed with Bushrod. I see him a very replaceable Having said all that, the Saints are still a very talented team, and have flexibility with this pick. Previous mocks show the Saints taking Bjoern Warner with this pick, and I still see that as a real possibility. Should a guy like Zeke Ansah fall, I imagine that Sean Payton would sprint the pick to the podium himself.
Thanks to the RG3 deal a year ago, the Rams have two first round picks, and they will take advantage of both of them during this draft. This offseason has seen them add Jared Cook at TE, which is a move I really like. They are also close to a deal with Jake Long, which would also make for a good addition. Unfortunately, the team also lost longtime RB Steven Jackson to ATL, and oft injured but very talented WR Danny Amendola to NE. Although it was smart to not overpay to keep either player, they still leave some holes to fill. With their two first rounders, I think they will still look to acquire UNC OG, Jonathan Cooper, should he be available. Other considerations will include a WR like West Virginia's Tavon Austin or Cal's Keenan Allen; Texas S, Kenny Vaccaro, or even K-State OLB, Arthur Brown, who is quickly rising up draft boards, including mine.
The Pittsburgh Steelers are one of the NFL's best run franchises. Despite this, for the first time that I can remember, I am feeling like the Steelers could be in some trouble. This team has lost a lot over the past year. Their secondary has holes, especially at corner. Their defensive front is not nearly as scary as it used to be, especially without James Harrison or Casey Hampton, and if the Patriots do in fact make a play at Emmanuel Sanders, that means Roethlisberger would start 2013 without two of his top three targets from a year ago. Needless to say, Pittsburgh could go in a lot of different directions when they come on the clock in the first round. A big body in the middle like Ohio State's Johnathan Hankins, or a wide out on the edge like the aforementioned Austin or Allen all make sense. Arthur Brown could get a look, or even Desmond Trufant at corner. Bottom line, Pittsburgh will have some options.
The Cowboys have been very inactive during free agency thus far. This means the team still has pretty much all the same needs as they did a month ago. My previous mocks have had Dallas all over the board. Most recently, Sheldon Richardson was the suggested selection, and that still makes sense. So does another OLB to study behind Ware. Kenny Vaccaro could also be a consideration if he falls. I still expect the pick to be defense, but its hard to project exactly where it will be.
Since the start of free agency the Giants have been busy adding players, but it is the two players that they have lost thus far which I think are going to make the biggest impact. Martellus Bennet and Kenny Phillips were not stars, but their departure does leave holes that have to be filled. Luckily for the G-men, Notre Dame TE, Tyler Eifert, should still be available. Also to get some consideration will be Kenny Vaccaro (if he falls), and ILBs Alec Ogletree and Kevin Minter. The Giants have some holes to fill if they want to return to the title chase, but they are in a good position during the draft to do exactly that.
Oh please lord, someone help me to convince the Chicago faithful that Jermon Bushrod does not mean that the o-line needs for this team have been filled. Bushrod is average, at best, and the team has to give Cutler some real protection if this offense is to be successful. Despit the Bushrod signing, I still feel that DJ Fluker, the OT from Alabama, still makes a lot of sense. I also think the team will have to consider Ogletree or Minter to be the replacement for Urlacher, and Arthur Brown to help bolster the OLB position too. If the Bears do in fact go defense in round one (not necessarily a mistake), they still have to target o-line help in two of the next three rounds.
Cincinnati is one of the teams that has had a lot of movement, but nothing that will translate into real value thus far. This means the team still could go in a bunch of different directions with this pick. They still need another RB to add to the roster, as well as an additional WR for Andy Dalton. They could also use some help on the o-line, and in the middle of the defense too. With Andre Smith hitting the open market, I think DJ Fluker and FSU's Menelik Watson could be considerations for the Bengals at OT. A WR like Austin, Allen, Clemson's DeAndre Hopkins or USC's Robert Woods may also come into the picture.
Although the Skins don't pick here, I'm going to talk about them because I have already addressed the Rams who own this selection. In my opinion, the top needs for the Redskins are at corner, center and ILB. There limited moves in free agency thus far have done nothing to address this. Since their first pick isn't until 53rd overall, they will wait and see what is available. Guys like Rutgers CB Logan Ryan, NC State's David Amerson, Wisconsin C Travis Frederick, and even Florida safety Matt Elam (if he falls) may all be in play in the middle of round 2.
After trading Percy Harvin to Seattle, the Vikings are left with two first round picks, and a very pick need at WR. You have to imagine that Austin, Allen, Hopkins, and Woods will have to get real consideration, with one of them being picked with one of the two picks the Vikes have. Considering the only addition the team has made in free agency thus far has been to add former Chief, Matt Cassel to come in to compete with Christian Ponder at QB, their other needs are still there. CB, DE, and all LB positions still have to be addressed, so names like Arthur Brown, TAMU DE Demontre Moore, SMU DE Margus Hunt, FSU DE Tank Carradine, Desmond Trufant, and UConn CB Blidi Wreh Wilson could all be in the discussion.
I really like what the Colts have done so far in free agency. They have made a lot of smart moves, adding players who you may not have heard of, but who fit their system and are very good. Erik Walden, LaRon Landry, Ricky Jean Francios, Gosder Cherilus, and Lawrence Sidbury will all be real contributors for this team. Still, the Colts have some holes that should be addressed, and thus guys like Menelik Watson at OT, Alec Ogletree or Kevin Minter at ILB have to be thought of as the top choices available. Corner is another direction the team could go if they believe that a guy like Trufant or Wreh Wilson provide them with the most value at this pick.
Like the Skins, the Hawks do not have a first round pick. They used the pick to acquire Percy Harvin, which I think was an excellent move for this franchise. They have also added some great talent including former Lion, Cliff Avril and former Buc, Michael Bennett, which has addressed a need on the defensive front. With their initial selection not coming till the back end of the second round, the Hawks can simply wait and try and grab the best player available at the time. Players like Texas OLB Alex Okafor, Kentucky OG Larry Warford, and UCLA hybrid Datone Jones all could be available.
At this point in free agency, the Packers have added absolutely no one new to their roster. They were in discussion with Steven Jackson, before he signed with Atlanta, to fill their need at RB, but clearly that didn't work out. This means Eddy Lacy, from the national champion Crimson Tide, could come into play here late i the first round. The team will also likely look at players in the secondary, including Trufant, Wreh Wilson, and safeties John Cyprien from FIU, Eric Reid from LSU, and Matt Elam from UF. Future Hall-of-Famer, Charles Woodson, is now gone, so one of those guys could be looked at to try and fill the void.
Like Green Bay, Houston is a talented team, that has not added anyone uring free agency as of now. They have however, lost a few players, including TE James Casey, OLB Connor Barwin, S Glover Quin, and WR Kevin Walter. None of these losses are crippling but all need to be addressed. As a result, the team could look at one of the safeties that Green Bay lets pass, but word on the street right now is that they may instead tap former Raven Ed Reed to fill that hole. To me, this would leave WR and DE as targets, as well as OT which has yet to be addresses. Hopkins, Woods, and Tennessee's Justin Hunter all make sense at this point in the draft, and I could see anyone of these guys fitting the bill.
How about the offseson that Denver is having... for the second straight year. Last year, Elway added Manning. This year he has added Wes Welker, Dominique Rodgers Cromartie, and Louis Vasquez. DRC helps address a team need at corner, and both Welker and Vasquez strengthen the Broncos while weakening division and conference rivals. Denver could still use some additional help on their defense, and my previous Mock's suggestion of Purdue DT Kawann Short still holds water. Tank Carradine and Margus Hunt, and Stanford TE Zach Ertz are also names that John Elway should consider with this pick.
Every year the Pats suffer losses that I seem to think will hurt the team, yet somehow the next guy in line steps up and becomes just as good. The loss of Welker would hurt, but if Amendola can stay healthy, the Pats could be even stronger. New England has also added former Seahawk, Leon Washington to fill the Kevin Faulk role for this team, and they are currently talking with all kinds of veteran free agents including Dwight Freeny, John Abraham, and Adrian Wilson. New England's biggest needs are still on the interior of their offensive front, and although the experts don't project it, I still love the fit of Alabama C, Barrett Jones in New England. Considering how active New England is during draft weekend, I would not be surprised to see them deal this pick either.
At the start of free agency, Atlanta received the best news they could have hoped for. Future Hall-of-Fame TE Tony Gonzalez has decided to return for a seventeenth season in the NFL. He will be a welcome sight for this offense as they try and make a super bowl run next year. Still, Gonzalez is clearly at the end of his career, and picking his replacement is a very good idea. Zach Ertz makes a whole lot of sense for this team. A DE like Tank Carradine, or Margus Hunt also could make sense for the Dirty Birds at this juncture as well.
Boy is the arms race on in the NFC West. San Fran and Seattle are each working hard to become the favorite in the NFC. The day after Seattle added Percy Harvin, the Niners went out and added Anquan Boldin. Then in free agency, the team added DE Glen Dorsey from KC. They have also had losses too. S Dashon Goldson is now in Tampa, and this leaves safety as the team's biggest need. Guys like Cyprien, Reid, and Elam, all could be considerations in the first. Remember this team has more than 10 picks after this one, including the second pick of the second round (due to the Alex Smith deal), so they have the flexibility to maneuver as they want come draft day.
The defending Super Bowl champs have had a tumultuous start to their offseason. Ray Lewis and Matt Birk have retired, and Paul Kruger, Anquan Boldin, Ed Reed, and Dannell Ellerby are all going to be playing somewhere else next year. So, despite being the defending champs, this team seems to have a number of holes. Come draft day the team could look at ILB, S, or C as priorities. Embattled Notre Dame LB, Mantei Te'o (or Ogletree or Minter) could get the call. Of course the team could instead look to one of the safeties (Cyprien, Reid, Elam) in round 1. Either way, all three of the above mentioned positions must be addressed. The addition of Chris Canty via free agency, while nice, does nothing to fill the team's real needs. But then again, in Baltimore it is said, "In Ozzie We Trust", and with very good reason.
