Well here we are, a mere 48 hours before another NFL draft. All of the work these players have put in, some for 4+ years at the collegiate level, all culminates with this NFL extravaganza. For draftniks like myself this is a very exciting time of year.
Now before the investments begin, I want to take a look at some players who through some great off-season choices have found themselves in the position of having their stock peaking at just the right time.
1. Kyle Wilson, CB, Bosie St
Since his breakout performance at the Senior Bowl, Wilson has been projected by many as a first round pick. However, recently there has been a lot of buzz surrounding this kid. Many of the draft experts have been reporting that some NFL teams now have Wilson rated as their number 1 corner on their board, eclipsing former Florida Corner, Joe Haden. I like Wilson, but on my board, I still project Haden as the top corner. How high will Wilson go on draft day? Well that is anyone's guess, but I am almost certain that he will be off the board before Thursday is over.
2. Kareem Jackson, CB, Alabama
A few weeks ago, Daniel Jeremiah of MovetheSticks.com was asked which rising player was staying under the radar the best. His answer... Kareem Jackson. Why? Well his off-season has been like his personality... efficient and quiet. When the season ended, I projected Jackson as a mid to late second rounder. As I have watched more tape on this kid, and looked at his post-season performances, I have changed my mind. This guy is a definate first round talent. He has quickly closed the gap on Devin McCourty (who has also seen his stock rise), and now it is almost a toss up between these two for the number 3 corner spot. Where Jackson is drafted will depend a lot on how the board falls. If corners start to move early (and they typically do), Jackson should find himself with a team before he goes to sleep on Thursday. If for some reason the corners are slower coming off the board, Jackson will hear his name called very early Friday evening.
3. Demaryius Thomas, WR, Georgia Tech
This year's draft class is chock full o'wideouts. Now I am not just talking about a lot of wide receivers, but this is a real deep class of receivers. As a result, there is a lot of argument about who falls where when ranking this bunch. Since the start of the season, I have been a big fan of Dez Bryant. Despite the troubles he has had, which I believe William Shakespeare would have called "Much Ado About Nothing", he has held on to my number one ranking. The rest of the class has changed positions quite a bit. Thomas has come on strong recently, and now has taken over the number two ranking from Arrelious Benn of Illinois. If you read a lot of mock drafts, you already know there is a lot of variability when it comes to predicting where the wideouts will fall. If there is an early run, it is feasible for Thomas to find himself as a first round pick. If the receivers are slower to come off the board, I'd expect to see him as one of the first names called on Friday.
4. Tyson Alualu, DT, California & Linval Joseph, DT, East Carolina
When you look at the top of the class, it is easy to get enamored with the defensive tackles in this group. After all, it is not very often that you have two once-in-a-lifetime type talents at DT to choose from. But for those who think this group of D-Tackles are all about the top two, you are really missing out. After Suh and McCoy, you have to talk about Dan Williams. And after Williams, you must think about Jared Odrick and Brian Price. But some of the real gems are guys who will get consideration in the second and third rounds. There is a lot to like about Alualu and Joseph. Both of these guys are technically sound players with good motors and great instincts. I think if they played at bigger, more successful programs, both would have higher grades. Alualu carries a solid second round grade with him, and if he lasts beyond the 15th pick in the second round, someone will be getting value. Joseph is a real sleeper, but I have heard that a lot of teams are quite high on him. In my book he carries a low second / high third round grade. Just like Alualu, I think he will hear his named called sometime on Friday.
5. Sean Lee, LB, Penn State
If not for a serious injury in college, Sean Lee would be pushing Rolando McClain for the top ILB spot in this draft. The truth of the matter is this kid was born to play linebacker. He has an excellent nose for the football and is a sure tackler, both of which you need in a ILB in the NFL. Unfortunately for him, a serious injury derailed a very promising collegiate career, and has pushed his stock into the second round. As the post-season has progressed, Lee has impressed almost everyone who he has come into contact with, and as a result his stock has been on the rise. I now have him as my clear number 2 ILB on the board, and I believe ultimately, Lee will have a better career than either of his Linebacker U teammates (Odrick and Bowman) who will likely be chosen ahead of him.
6. Andre Roberts, WR, Citadel
As I mentioned earlier, this is a deep class at wide receiver. Andre Roberts is raw, and he did not play against top collegiate competition, but this kid has some real upside. As Bill Parcels is fond of saying, "You can't teach fast", and Andre Roberts is fast. But he is more than that. He also has good size, uses his hands well off the line, and he can catch the ball too. His route running needs some work, and it will be interesting to see how he deals with some more advanced defensive schemes, but I think Roberts could be a pro-bowler if he lands in the right system with the right coaches. I have seen his name fall anywhere from the 3rd to the 5th round in recent mock drafts. I have him as a solid 3rd round choice, and I will be a bit surprised if his name is not called before end of business on Friday.
There are some other players who I like, that I feel deserve an honorable mention. All of these guys I think could grow into difference makers at the next level, and I will anxiously look to see where they wind up being drafted. After their names I have listed my grade for them in parentheses: Koa Misi, LB, Utah (2nd); Corey Wooten, DE, Northwestern (2nd); Brandon Lang, DE, Troy (Late 2nd); Mike Williams, WR, Syracuse (Late 2nd); Mardy Gillyard, WR, Cincinnati (Early 3rd); Amari Spivey, CB, Iowa (Early 3rd); Myron Rolle, S, Florida State (4th).
As the draft goes (like with investing), where there are possibilities, there are risks. Each year there are players whose risk/reward ratios make teams nervous. Now please understand, not all of the players I am about to mention are bad choices. Some of them I really like, but they bring with them the possibility of being a big bust in the NFL.
1. Jimmy Clausen, QB, Notre Dame
Yes it is true, at one point I had projected the Irish signal caller as the top overall pick in the draft. Understand however, it is not because I think he will be a stud. In fact, Clausen is one of the guys I would avoid if I were running a team. I see Clausen as a high risk type player, with a real bust possibility. His throwing motion makes me uncomfortable, and I would not risk anything higher than a late first round pick on him. When it is all said and done, I think both Sam Bradford and Colt McCoy will be better pro QBs than Clausen. He is a QB though, and in the NFL, that means someone very well could risk a lot and pick him too early.
2. Taylor Mays, S, USC
The story of Mays' plummet down draft boards has been well chronicled at this point. This is a guy who at the onset of the season was in most circles rated higher than Tennessee Safety, Eric Berry, who is now projected as a top 5 pick. Poor play throughout the season has scared a lot of teams off the Trojan defender. Having said this, I am still a Taylor Mays fan. I think this guy will put it together at the next level and be a very good, if not elite defender. Recently I have seen a lot of Mocks predicting Mays falling into the second round. I still have him with a 1st round grade on my board, and although I do envision a draft day fall for Mays, I can't seem him making past Oakland's pick in the second round at worst.
3. Tim Tebow, QB, Florida
Being from the state of Florida, I know that making anti-Tebow comments is punnishable by lethal injection, but I have some real concerns about the viability of Tim Tebow at the next level. My concern is not based on his throwing motion however. It is based more on his pedigree and his Senior Bowl performance. I know Tebow measures well, and I know his interview was out-of-this-world. Unfortunately it takes more than that to be a successful NFL QB. Yes he will be remembered as one of the best college football players, maybe ever, but that does not mean he will be a good pro. It means he played in the right college system. Let me ask you this, name a recent (last 15 years) UF QB who has gone one to be a success as a pro QB. Better yet, tell me which Urban Meyer QB has become a legit NFL starting QB. I see Tim Tebow as a great person, and an awesome college football player. I also see him as a player without a position in the NFL, and this makes me nervous. I think come the draft, some team will invest in Tim Tebow because of who he is, and not what he will do for their franchise.
4. Jerome Murphy, CB, South Florida
Every time I hear someone talk about Jerome Murphy sneaking into the second round of this year's draft I cringe. After watching Murphy up close in Tampa for the last few years, all I can recall is unfulfilled promise, and mistakes galore. As a Bull, Murphy made more game changing negative plays than he did positive ones, yet good measurements and "high upside" have teams looking at him in the top half of this draft. The kind of mistakes that Murphy makes (penalties and getting beat one-on-one) are momentum changers in a game, and not in a good way for his team. I hope I am wrong about him, but I don't think I am.
Just like with the sleepers I mentioned earlier, these next players all come with a "caveat emptor" tag. Remember, I do like some of these guys, but even those guys come with some real risk. After each player, I have indicated if they are in the high risk category (I still like these guys) or in the potential bust group (I would not select them): Anthony Davis, T, Rutgers (High Risk - Attitude); Dez Bryant, WR, Oklahoma State (High Risk - Dedication); Dexter McCluster, RB, Mississippi (Potential Bust); Golden Tate, WR, Notre Dame (Potential Bust); Terrance Cody, DT, Alabama (Potential Bust); Brandon LaFell, WR, LSU (Potential Bust); Jonathan Dwyer, RB, Georgia Tech (Potential Bust).
Don't forget to check back in tomorrow, where you can check out the final Football Futures Mock Draft before the real thing. For this final mock, I will take you three rounds deep!!!
Also, on Thursday night, during the first round of the draft, I will be blogging along with each pick, providing you with instant feedback about each selection, and trade, as it happens. So, don't forget to check back in as the future of football becomes the now.
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