Sunday, May 27, 2012

Memorial Day Mailbag 2012

As some of you await my "Way-Way Too Early" 2013 Mock Draft, I wanted to dip into the mailbag and answer a few questions from some of you.  Remember, if you have a question, don't hesitate to email us at ezfootballfutures@gmail.com.



Big E...
    It seems that every year, there is one guy who, had he chosen to declare for the draft, would have shaken up the whole draft.  This past draft, I think that guy was Matt Barkley.  If he had declared rather than return to USC, how would the first round have been different?

Kenny D - Chico, California

Kenny...
    I agree with you about this.  There is always that "one guy" and this year it was Barkley.  I think had Barkley come out this year, he most likely would have landed with the Dolphins at 8.  I have him rated higher than Tannehill, but still behind Luck and RG3.  I think Barkley's presence would have really tempted Cleveland, who may have pulled the trigger, but ultimately, I still think Richardson would have been their choice.  

     With Barley having been selected by Miami, that would have allowed Tannehill to slide.  I think Cleveland may have tried to work a deal to trade back up to get Tannehill too, but Im not sure after choosing Richardson they would have had the assets to do it without mortgaging too much of their future.  I think the Seattle would have opted not to trade down with Philly, and instead sat put to grab Tannehill at 12, letting Bruce Irvin go by.  Phiilly would have had to try and trade with Arizona, but wouldn't have offered enough as the Cards didn't want to loose Floyd to St Louis.  That would have meant that Fletcher Cox would have landed in St Louis, and then Michael Brockers would have headed to Philly.  Cleveland would have still taken Weeden later in round 1, and I think it would have been entirely possible for the Seahawks to still have taken Irvin when they picked in round 2.  I think they would have stayed put at 11 in the second round though to get him.  This would have forced the Jets to deal with KC in round 2 to still get Hill, while KC could have still picked Allen 47th overall.  All of these moves would have likely ended with both Bobby Wagner and Russell Wilson landing somewhere other than Seattle too.

    Great question Kenny.  I love playing out these "what-if" type scenarios.  Talk with you soon.


EZ,
     I know that it is never too early to start looking at next year, so tell me who you think the best player in the Big East will be during 2012.  Thanks man, and keep these articles coming.

Tom C - Bridgeport, CT

Tom,
     It is the right time to start looking forward to next season, but I am still doing all of my pre-season player evaluations.  I am not done yet, but as of right now I think the name to keep an eye on as far as the Beast of the Big East would go is Pittsburgh RB, Ray Graham.  Graham is very fast, and has exceptional change-of-direction ability.  He sees the field well when her runs, and has some surprising power at the point of contact too.
     I think Graham is a stud with huge upside potential at the next level (think L. McCoy but slightly quicker), but I do have some causes for concern too.  First, Graham has to stay healthy.  This is a concern for all players, but for one whos game is so tied to his shiftiness, any knee injury could be career changing.  Also, I am a bit concerned to see how well Graham puts it together on-field this year.  Yet again, the revolving door that is the Pittsburgh HC position has rotated, and it is forcing Graham to have to learn yet another new system.  This could impact Grahams production, especially in the early part of the season, and that could impact his draft stock a bit.  

     Thanks for the great question, Tom.


Hey there E,
     So again I hear the winds of change are shifting and this time they seem to be pushing Florida State to the Big 12.  Do you think this will happen, and if so, what are the other changes that could come as a result of this?  Thanks.

Ted R - Atlanta, GA

Hey Ted,
     So earlier today I was doing a little research about the possibility of FSU heading to the Big 12, and where as I see it as a possibility, I don't think it is a certainty.  There are a lot of good arguments for FSU to move, but then again, there are some fairly compelling ones for them to stay too.  Although I am not sold on the move actually happening, lets say that it does.  What else could happen as a result?  
     
     First off, I think if FSU goes, I think the Big 12 will push to add Clemson too.  This would pull out too big names from the ACC.  I would then expect the ACC to try and raid the Big East to replace their losses. South Florida and Connecticut both make a lot of sense as replacements.  USF keeps an ACC presence in Florida, and UConn expands the conference footprint and TV rights.  Rutgers would be another possibility, and adding Central Florida could result in a net gain of 2 if they pulled all four.  This situation would almost certainly condemn the Big East to a basketball only fate though.  

     Of course the other real alternative would be this move by the Big 12 precipitating a push to 4 "super conferences" .  I think the SEC and the Big 10 would lead the way in this charge.  The Big 10 would need to add 4 to get to 16.  Obviously they are hoping to land Notre Dame, but in their absence I would guess that Rutgers and Cincinnati would be two of the targets. If it was deemed that the ACC was now open for raids too, then Maryland, and Va Tech make the most sense to fill to 16. 

     The SEC is now at 14, and they would only need to pick up 2 to get to the target of 16.  I would suspect that Georgia Tech from the ACC would be their first choice, and then I think they would look to adding Louisville from the Big East to solidify the natural rivalry with Kentucky within conference borders.  

     Out west, I'd expect the Pac 12 to try and redirect both Bosie State and SDSU from their impending join with the Big East to the better geographical fit of the new "Pac-16".  I also think that BYU would again be targeted, as well as Air Force to try and fill out the biggest conference on the left coast.  

     This leaves the Big 12 and the ACC to fight it out for who becomes the last of the Big 4.  After losing FSU, Clemson, Va Tech, Maryland, and Ga tech in this scenario, I think the ACC would be in shambles.  The Big 12 would still need to add 6 to get to the desired 16, but targeting teams like South Florida from the Big East, and then NC State, UNC, Pittsburgh, Miami, and UVA from the ACC would get them there.  Duke, Wake Forest, and Syracuse may also be on the table too.

     Thanks so much for the great question Ted.

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