Memorial Day Mailbag 2012

As some of you await my "Way-Way Too Early" 2013 Mock Draft, I wanted to dip into the mailbag and answer a few questions from some of you.  Remember, if you have a question, don't hesitate to email us at ezfootballfutures@gmail.com.

Big E...

    It seems that every year, there is one guy who, had he chosen to declare for the draft, would have shaken up the whole draft.  This past draft, I think that guy was Matt Barkley.  If he had declared rather than return to USC, how would the first round have been different?

Kenny D - Chico, California

Kenny...

    I agree with you about this.  There is always that "one guy" and this year it was Barkley.  I think had Barkley come out this year, he most likely would have landed with the Dolphins at 8.  I have him rated higher than Tannehill, but still behind Luck and RG3.  I think Barkley's presence would have really tempted Cleveland, who may have pulled the trigger, but ultimately, I still think Richardson would have been their choice.  

     With Barley having been selected by Miami, that would have allowed Tannehill to slide.  I think Cleveland may have tried to work a deal to trade back up to get Tannehill too, but Im not sure after choosing Richardson they would have had the assets to do it without mortgaging too much of their future.  I think the Seattle would have opted not to trade down with Philly, and instead sat put to grab Tannehill at 12, letting Bruce Irvin go by.  Phiilly would have had to try and trade with Arizona, but wouldn't have offered enough as the Cards didn't want to loose Floyd to St Louis.  That would have meant that Fletcher Cox would have landed in St Louis, and then Michael Brockers would have headed to Philly.  Cleveland would have still taken Weeden later in round 1, and I think it would have been entirely possible for the Seahawks to still have taken Irvin when they picked in round 2.  I think they would have stayed put at 11 in the second round though to get him.  This would have forced the Jets to deal with KC in round 2 to still get Hill, while KC could have still picked Allen 47th overall.  All of these moves would have likely ended with both Bobby Wagner and Russell Wilson landing somewhere other than Seattle too.

    Great question Kenny.  I love playing out these "what-if" type scenarios.  Talk with you soon.

EZ,

     I know that it is never too early to start looking at next year, so tell me who you think the best player in the Big East will be during 2012.  Thanks man, and keep these articles coming.

Tom C - Bridgeport, CT

Tom,

     It is the right time to start looking forward to next season, but I am still doing all of my pre-season player evaluations.  I am not done yet, but as of right now I think the name to keep an eye on as far as the Beast of the Big East would go is Pittsburgh RB, Ray Graham.  Graham is very fast, and has exceptional change-of-direction ability.  He sees the field well when her runs, and has some surprising power at the point of contact too.

     I think Graham is a stud with huge upside potential at the next level (think L. McCoy but slightly quicker), but I do have some causes for concern too.  First, Graham has to stay healthy.  This is a concern for all players, but for one whos game is so tied to his shiftiness, any knee injury could be career changing.  Also, I am a bit concerned to see how well Graham puts it together on-field this year.  Yet again, the revolving door that is the Pittsburgh HC position has rotated, and it is forcing Graham to have to learn yet another new system.  This could impact Grahams production, especially in the early part of the season, and that could impact his draft stock a bit.  

     Thanks for the great question, Tom.

Hey there E,

     So again I hear the winds of change are shifting and this time they seem to be pushing Florida State to the Big 12.  Do you think this will happen, and if so, what are the other changes that could come as a result of this?  Thanks.

Ted R - Atlanta, GA

Hey Ted,

     So earlier today I was doing a little research about the possibility of FSU heading to the Big 12, and where as I see it as a possibility, I don't think it is a certainty.  There are a lot of good arguments for FSU to move, but then again, there are some fairly compelling ones for them to stay too.  Although I am not sold on the move actually happening, lets say that it does.  What else could happen as a result?  

     

     First off, I think if FSU goes, I think the Big 12 will push to add Clemson too.  This would pull out too big names from the ACC.  I would then expect the ACC to try and raid the Big East to replace their losses. South Florida and Connecticut both make a lot of sense as replacements.  USF keeps an ACC presence in Florida, and UConn expands the conference footprint and TV rights.  Rutgers would be another possibility, and adding Central Florida could result in a net gain of 2 if they pulled all four.  This situation would almost certainly condemn the Big East to a basketball only fate though.  

     Of course the other real alternative would be this move by the Big 12 precipitating a push to 4 "super conferences" .  I think the SEC and the Big 10 would lead the way in this charge.  The Big 10 would need to add 4 to get to 16.  Obviously they are hoping to land Notre Dame, but in their absence I would guess that Rutgers and Cincinnati would be two of the targets. If it was deemed that the ACC was now open for raids too, then Maryland, and Va Tech make the most sense to fill to 16. 

     The SEC is now at 14, and they would only need to pick up 2 to get to the target of 16.  I would suspect that Georgia Tech from the ACC would be their first choice, and then I think they would look to adding Louisville from the Big East to solidify the natural rivalry with Kentucky within conference borders.  

     Out west, I'd expect the Pac 12 to try and redirect both Bosie State and SDSU from their impending join with the Big East to the better geographical fit of the new "Pac-16".  I also think that BYU would again be targeted, as well as Air Force to try and fill out the biggest conference on the left coast.  

     This leaves the Big 12 and the ACC to fight it out for who becomes the last of the Big 4.  After losing FSU, Clemson, Va Tech, Maryland, and Ga tech in this scenario, I think the ACC would be in shambles.  The Big 12 would still need to add 6 to get to the desired 16, but targeting teams like South Florida from the Big East, and then NC State, UNC, Pittsburgh, Miami, and UVA from the ACC would get them there.  Duke, Wake Forest, and Syracuse may also be on the table too.

     Thanks so much for the great question Ted.

Mailbag 4-24-12

Time for the final mailbag before the draft.  I wonder what these questions will be about...

Whats Up EZ,

    Bro, all of your drafts have my Bucs looking a Mo Claiborne going to them in the first.  Let's just say Minnesota jumps on him at 3.  What do we do then?  What other options are there?

Aaron T - Tampa, FL

Aaron,

    Sure, I'll bite.  Lets pretend that Minnesota does in fact either select Claiborne, or make a move so someone else can grab him.  If this happens, the Bucs still have quite a few options too look at.  Obviously, trading down and grabbing additional assets is always something too look at, but my guess is that you wanted some player names, so again, lets assume they stay put.  The most obvious name to look at for them would be Trent Richardson.  He is an elite prospect who immediately would change the look of this whole Tampa offense.  I like Blount, but he is no Richardson.  If Trent is still available, they would most definitely look there.  Obviously, I had him going at 4 to Cleveland though, so lets look further.  The Bucs secondary needs a lot of help and with Claiborne gone, that brings us to the next in line at corner, Stephon Gilmore.  It also brings the top safety, Mark Barron into play.  Both of these guys could be good adds, and Barron would even project as a starter from day 1.  Unfortunately, at 5, I see both of these guys as reaches.  

   Another name to consider would be Matt Kalil.  If Minnesota passes on him, Tampa could look to add the best tackle in this draft.  Sure Donald Penn is getting the job done, but how much better would this offense be if they moved Penn to the right side, and inserted Kalil on the left?

    Finally, I would suggest a surprise name here too.  I think the sneaky pick here, and possibly the best one, would be to choose Luke Kuechly.  The Bucs need linebackers, and there is none better in this draft than the BC product.  Again, he becomes a day one starter, and I think his upside and consistency would be very attractive to Mark Dominick. At 5, Kuechly is not as much a reach as either Barron, or Gilmore, and he fits the system perfectly.

Thanks Aaron.

E,

     Every year at the draft, ESPN always shows some dude who was supposed to go really early, sitting in the Green Room, waiting to hear his name called.  Who is the guy most likely this year to slide?

Clayton R - Atlanta, GA

Hey Clayton...

    You are absolutely right.  Every year someone who was expected to go high, inevitably drops.  Sometimes it is hard to pick who it will be though.  This year, is one of those years.  I think if I were to have a gun at my head, I'd guess Ryan Tannehill.  Right now, he is getting pub as a possible 3-4 selection depending on if Minnesota trades, or if Cleveland wants him.  Then there is the Phins at 8 who seem to like him a bunch.  I have also heard that he would fall past Seattle if he fell to 12.  Still, he strikes me as a guy who may be hot today, that teams may cool on over the next 48 hours.  If he does slip past Seattle at 12, I could easily see him falling all the way to Denver.

    Matt Kalil is an interesting name to watch too.  I think Minnesota would be silly to pass on him at 3, but if they do, there is no guarantee he would get scooped up by either Tampa or St Louis.  Miami would look hard at him at 8, and then Buffalo at 10 I would estimate to be his floor.

    Because of his position, Trent Richardson could slip a bit.  Teams seem more reluctant to take a back high, but he really is a special player.  If Cleveland passes, both Tampa and St Louis would have tough decisions to make.  Then, Miami, KC, and Seattle could all take a look.  I have a hard time imagining him falling that far though.

    Finally, both Quinton Coples, and Melvin Ingram could be candidates to fall.  Coples has immense upside, but comes with a lot of risk.  I am already projecting him to slide to Seattle at 12, but if they pass, he could fall into the 20's.  Melvin Ingram I like, but he too could slide.  I think the Cards, Jets, and Eagles would both look hard at him in the teens, but then he too could find himself looking at a 20-something draft spot.

Thanks for the question Clayton.

Mr EZ...

    So yet again you have dissed my boy Chandler Jones, dropping him into the 2nd round.  Some of the real experts show him going in round 1. What do you have against him?


Brad L - Freeport, NY

Mr Brad...

    I have absolutely nothing against Chandler Jones.  In fact, he is on my upside list, because I think he could develop into a much better player at the pro level.  Having said that, I do my Mocks primarily based on team need as compared to player grade.  Jones is very, very closely rated to both Andre Branch, and Whitney Mercilus.  It was almost a toss up as to which 2 I though would go late in round 1, and which one would slip into the second.  It would not surprise me one bit to hear the Commish announce Chandler's name on Thursday night.  If he were to go mid-teens or higher, I would think that to be a reach, but anywhere from 15 down make perfect sense.  He is exactly the kind of player that someone will fall in love with and trade back up into round 1, or down from an early round 1 position to secure.

Thanks for the awesome question Brad.

Mailbag 3-31-12

Today's mailbag is filled with some great questions, so let's have at it...

EZ...

    Looking over your most recent mock, I saw a lot of movement.  I know this comes from signings, and player movement as pro-days come and go.  Of the guys you have slotted to go in round 1, who are the most likely to fall out of round 1, and which players from round 2 are the most likely to step up and replace them?

Kevin T - Chicago, Illinois

Kevin,

    Great question.  Much of this will be related to player positions as compared to team need, but if i had to guess, I would expect that the most likely to fall out of the first round include Lamar Miller, David Wilson, and Michael Brockers.  I like both Miller and Wilson, but in today's NFL, the running back position has been devalued.  More and more we are seeing situations like that of Mark Ingram.  Very talented backs who stock falls on draft day because of the position.  After Richardson, I'm not sold on any other back being a must have in round 1.  As for Brockers, I have reservations.  He landed back inside the first round based on my expectations of how teams perceive him more than how I perceive him.  he does have an upside, but he has bust written all over him in my opinion.

     As for the guys most likely to replace them, Stephon Gilmore had an incredible pro day, and has been flying up draft boards.  For some teams, he has supplanted both Jenkins and Kirkpatrick behind Claiborne.  I also really like Zach Brown.  He only fell because of team needs, and I would not at all be surprised to hear his name called on the first night of the draft.  Stephen Hill is another name on the rise.

     Thanks again for the great question Kevin.

Hey There EZ,

     As we get closer to the draft, I was wondering which team is most likely to try and trade down in the first round?  Thanks.

Bill L - Carson City, NV

Hey Bill...

    This is a very interesting question, because there are a lot of teams who will look to move around the board on draft night.  The easy answer here would be New England, as I still fully expect them to try and move one of their two first rounders to continue to collect more picks.  Now for some of the less obvious ones.
     Minnesota sits at three, and after his pro day, I expect the Vikes to try and build a market for Tannehill,
to entice Miami to pay up to leap Cleveland and grab him.
     I think the Bucs would be smart to explore trade down options at 5, especially if Claiborne is off the board. Many experts have them selecting Richardson there, but if Claiborne is gone, I think they would be best served to trade down to the 10-12 range, add an additional pick and then grab Courtney Upshaw.
     From what I hear, St Louis is willing to listen to offers to trade down again, and if Miami sits tight at 8, and Tannehill passes Cleveland at 4, I could see St Louis trying to auction off the pick for a team who wants the QB.
     Finally, I think depending on who is still available when they do get on the clock, Miami may want to consider moving down.  They have a few prominent needs, and adding an extra early pick or two certainly wouldn't hurt.

     Thanks for the question Bill.  I sure do appreciate it.

EZ,

    So after the combine you wrote about Josh Robinson being on the rise.  Now in the most recent mock, you have him sliding back into the third round again.  What is the deal?


Anthony B - Orlando, FL

Anthony...

    So when I declare a stock on the rise, it does mean that his value proposition is going up, but it does not mean it will stay that way.  On my board, Robinson was given a 5th round grade when the season ended.  Then his combine performance moved him up 2 full rounds on my board.  That is quite a leap.  Could Robinson go in the second? Absolutely.  But when I do my Mocks, I try to stay true to my player rankings.  As of right now, I have Robinson ranked 10th amongst all corners.  Although he is blazing fast, his coverage skills, especially in man, do need some work.  If he gets into the right system, he could absolutely develop into an excellent corner in the league, but base on what I know now, I would feel more comfortable with the prospects of any of the nine guys I have rated ahead of him.
     Having said this, corner is a hot position, especially considering how much of a passing league the NFL has become.  Nickle corners are now a necessity, not a luxury, and thus most teams in the league could benefit from an additional skilled corner on their roster.  Corners go fast during the draft, and I expect this year to be no different.  It is an absolute possibility that before the end of round 2, 10-12 corners have had their names called.  If that is the case, expect that Robinson would be one of those.

     Thanks again Anthony for the question.

Mailbag 3-12-12

Time to take a look at the old mailbag, and see what we have waiting for us today...

EZ...

    So I really respect the work that you do, but I don't always agree with your analysis.  Since the beginning of draft season, you have had the Husker corner, Alfonso Denard rated as a first round player.  The guy may have been good last year, but that was an anomaly.  He was a total dud this past season, and in no way deserves to be picked in the first.  What gives?

Brandon L - Stillwater, Oklahoma

Brandon,

    First let me say thank you for both the read, and the compliment.  Now onto your question.  Just like pro scouts and GMs, I sometimes see a guy and fall in love.  The first time I really watched Denard play was last year, and I was very impressed.  I think my opinion of him formed then, and was reinforced over the rest of the season.  As I have said in the last few mocks, Denard's play did fall off this past season, but maybe the fall off was the anomaly.  Either way, I don't have him graded as a round 1 talent.  In my book he has a solid round 2 grade.  I just had the Lions reaching for him in recent mocks.  Having said that, every year I go back and take second and third looks a some guys.  I have done that recently with a few guys, including South Carolina CB, Stephon Gilmore.  I think that I have underrated Gilmore and have since bumped him up my board, which will have an impact on future mocks.  

    And before you ask, some of the other names that have been recently reviewed again, and earned an increase over their previous rating include:

• Ruben Randall, WR, LSU
• Kevin Zeitler, OG, Wisconsin
• Vinny Curry, DE, Marshall
• Jared Crick, DE, Nebraska
• Travis Lewis, OLB, Oklahoma
• Mike Adams, OT, Ohio State

Brandon, thanks again for the question, and I hope you keep on reading.

Hey Biggie,

     So I know you focus on the emerging college kids, but I am sure you have an opinion on the whole Peyton Manning thing.  Who do you think has the edge to get him, and how to you think the landscape of the league changes based on what he decides?  Who else could be effected by this?  Thanks for writing this stuff.

Chris T - Knoxville, TN

Chris...

    Thanks for the question man.  Although I do typically spend more time on the college kids, I will share with you my thoughts on Peyton.  First, let me say that there has never, ever, been a free agent the caliber of Peyton Manning on the open market, and I say that with all due respect to the late Reggie White.  I am in the group of folks who still think Peyton has something left in the tank, and would be a great add for just about anyone, even if only for a year or three.  Having said that, I think at this point it is down to three teams for Manning.  I will give you the impact scenarios, in order of most likely destination, first to third.

Arizona Cardinals - In my mind, Arizona is the best destination for Manning of the teams still in the mix.  Now if he does in fact land in Arizona, the first casualty of this decision will be Kevin Kolb.  The Cards sent picks to the Eagles in exchange for Kolb last year, and this year they will finish paying for that deal. Despite his struggles last year before going down with an injury, Kolb will still have some market value.  Teams like the Seahawks, and Dolphins; and to a lesser extent, Cleveland and Denver will all kick the tires on him.  At the end of the day, I would guess that if Peyton lands in Arizona, Kolb heads to Seattle.  

Denver Broncos - Denver was the first stop on Peyton's tour, and as it appears from all of the reports, was a team who made a great impression on him.  Having John Elway calling the shots sure doesn't hurt.  Now if Peyton does indeed choose the mile high city, obviously the most impacted other in this scenario would be Tim Tebow.  He would be out and even with the Manning signing, Denver will still have some PR to do because of the fanatic following Tebow has.  Should this happen, I would expect that Tebow will be shopped and eventually land in Jacksonville.  They are a franchise whose new owner has publicly declared that it was a mistake to pass on him in the draft a few years ago.  But if Timmy does head home, this would impact last years first round pick, Blaine Gabbart.  I would expect the Jags to shop Gabbart, and I would think the most logical destination for him will be Miami.  They are searching for a young signal caller to build around, and I think they would likely prefer the former Tiger to Tannehill, or anyone else from this year's class (other than Luck or Griffin, who they will not get).  Now the timing on this will be very important because I think Miami will prefer Flynn over Gabbart, so if they can sign him, Blain may be in search for another team.  The Seahawks would also be in heavy play here.

Miami Dolphins - Although a distant third, it still appears as if Miami is in the Manning race.  Should he land in Miami, I think the person most impacted by this will be Matt Flynn.  Miami does not have an incumbent who would be dropped with Peyton's arrival.  Chad Henne will not be back in aqua, and Matt Moore will return to the bench to pitch in relief.  Flynn however is the best free agent QB not named Manning, and right now he is positioned to watch Seattle and Miami start bidding against each other for his services.  If the Phins land Manning, that reduces Flynn's market by one major player, and thus will cost him some cash.  Sure, some other teams will be in the mix for Flynn, but it will be more cursory.  Outside of Seattle and Miami, the only other team who desperately needs a QB is Washington, and they just dealt to land Griffin, and thus left the marketplace.

Thanks for the question Chris.

Hello EZ,

    Each year you give all of the prospects a rating based on the round you think they should be drafted.  I know there are typically 30 or so players who get a first round grade.  But among those guys, aren't there some guys who are just a bit better? Obviously very few of them, if any, will eventually land in Canton, but of this class, who has the best chance of that?  Thanks so much.

Rex F - Austin, TX

Rex...

    Thanks so much for your question.  Let me start by warning against enshrining anyone from any class prior to them ever having played a down in the NFL.  All of the evaluations in the world sometimes mean nothing in the end.  Having said that, there is in fact a rating that I have which is better than a round 1 grade, and that is my "Elite" rating.  Players who are elite, are guys who I feel have the best potential to be true game changers at the next level.  These are the guys I think that opposing coaches could lose sleep over have to game plan against.  From this year's group, I have pegged 6 different players as Elite.  They are listed below.

• Andrew Luck, QB, Stanford - Luck is really a once in a lifetime type prospect.  This guy is simply the best rated prospect to come out of college in the past quarter century.  Simply put, he has the best chance of anyone to be that elite talent.
• Robert Griffin, QB, Baylor - RG3 is more of the breed of new QBs than Luck, but he has an exceptional upside.  As a mobile QB, people make the mistake of comparing him to Mike Vick and Cam Newton from a talent perspective, but this would be a mistake.  Griffin is some much farther along than either of those guys at the same point in their careers.  Yes, RG3 can run, and he will shred a defense when he does, but he is a true pass first kind of player.  He wants to sit in the pocket and find his target, and that is what he strives to do.  He will however use is considerable speed to create opportunities should he not find anything.  There is a very bright future on the horizon for him in the NFL.
• Morris Claiborne, CB, LSU - The natural comparison for Claiborne is his former teammate, drafted a year ago, Patrick Peterson.  Now except for Peterson's exceptional return ability, Claiborne grades out higher in every other way.  The NFL is right now a passing league, and this puts a premium on true shut down corners.  Claiborne has the best chance of anyone in this class at becoming a Revis type corner.  He has all of the skills you want in a guy who will match up against another team's number 1 receiver.  
• Matt Kalil, OT, USC - It has been said time and time again, that if the QB is the most important position on the field, the blind side tackle is the second most critical.  Kurt Warner, QB of the Greatest Show on Turf, touts Orlando Pace as the key to his success in St Louis.  Trent Dilfer who was under center for the Ravens when they hoisted the Lombardi Trophy, claims that the offense would have been dramatically different if not for Jonathan Ogden.  Kalil has enough talent in him to eventually be mentioned alongside those guys.  He will give his signal caller enough time in an upright position to be able to find targets downfield, and will prevent him from taking some potentially devastating hits in the back.  
• Trent Richardson, RB, Alabama - Yes the league has gone to a running back by committee approach, and yes this does devalue the "factor back" to some extent, but Richardson is the best back to come out of college since Adrian Peterson in '07.  In the right system, Richardson can be difference between wins and losses for a team, and in the end, that is what teams are looking for.  Richardson has exceptionally rare lower body strength, and along with his low center of gravity, this makes him very difficult to bring down. He may not have the top end, breakaway speed that some guys possess, but he is by no means slow, and I doubt he will get caught from behind.  The bottom line with Richardson is I think of anyone in this class, he has the best chance at making an immediate impact.
• Justin Blackmon, WR, Oklahoma State - Blackmon is the final player to make the cut into the elite category.  His production for the Cowboys is unmatched, and he has all of the right tools to bring it at the next level.  An easy comparison for Blackmon is his former teammate, Dez Bryant.  Bryant fell on draft day, but he is beginning to emerge as a real threat in Dallas.  I like Blackmon better than I did Bryant.  I think Blackmon uses his body better at the same point in their careers.  Now that the second pick in the draft has been dealt, Minnesota is in the pole position to hold a sweepstakes to see who will have the right to add this guy to their roster next season.

One last point to make on this subject.  Although the guys I think are elite are those who I feel have the best chance at being real difference makers in the league, there are always guys drafted lower who also develop into those type of players.  Again, just pointing out how inexact the "science" of player evaluation really is.  Rex, thanks again for the question.  I hope to talk with you again soon.

Mailbag 3-3-12

So with today's addition of the mailbag, I have decided to do something a little different.  Rather than post the insightful questions which really deserve an answer, I've decided to share some of my more critical readers emails.  It amazes me how much anger a small blog like this can generate from folks.  I'll do my best to post the emails as they came in as to not hide anything.  OK, so here we go...

EZ,
    What is with all of the hate you clearly have for the Jets?  What are you, from Boston or something?  The Jets are the best team ever, and they are the best in the league right now.  Somebody auta teach you a thing or two about football.  You should show some respect and get off the Patriots waggon.  


Stu M - Port Jefferson, New York


Dear Delusional on the North Shore (a.k.a Stu from Port Jeff),
    First off, I am not from Boston, I was born and raised in New York.  Second, what is a "waggon"?  I am assuming that you meant "wagon", as in "bandwagon" but it is hard to tell. Third, "auta"?  Really Stu?

   Stu, I don't hate the Jets.  All fans accuse me of hating their team if I post even one criticism.  The Jets are a talented team, but I think their front office/coaching staff is a bit dysfunctional.  Winning football games in the NFL is not just about fielding the team with the most talented players.  It is about taking player's talents and merging them in a way that creates an effective team.  Once the Jets figure that out, they may ascend to great heights and become "best in the league".  Until then, they won't even earn the title "best in their city".

Stupid EZ,
    From reading this cr@p you call a blog one thing has become clear.  You know nothing about football or quarterback play.  You have never once pegged a future good quarterback, and you always say that someone will be a bust when they won't.  You called my man Josh Freeman stupid, but he is a great QB for my Bucs. There is not another young QB anyone would rather have than Freeman, so you were just wrong.  How does it feel to be so wrong, stupid?  You should quit your day job.


Alan R - Tampa, Florida


Dear Confused about Cliches (also known as Alan from Tampa),
     First, I think it is important that you recognize that all analysts get it wrong about players from time to time.  So do scouts and GMs (how else can you explain Tom Brady being available in the 6th round).  In fact, even the ones who do this for a living get quite a few projections wrong.  Considering I don't do this professionally, I am flattered to be in such great company.

   As for your guy Freeman, I have indeed said that I don't believe he is smart enough to run a successful pro offense.  After his rookie season, it was looking like I was wrong. If you didn't see him seriously regress last year however, you either didn't watch the Bucs play, or you don't know what regress means.  Teams who start outstanding QBs don't usually wind up picking 5th overall and have their whole coaching staff fired.  It is still too early to make a definitive call as to how good, or bad Freeman will be.

   As for my never picking good QBs, I have called a few right.  In 2005 I called for the 49ers to pick Aaron Rodgers with the first pick, and they chose Alex Smith.  In 2007, I warned against picking Jamarcus Russell first overall, and look what happened.  I have missed a few too, and some of my more recent criticisms of guys like Freeman, Matt Ryan, and Cam Newton may turn out to be wrong, but it is still to early to tell.

Dear Dum EZ
     You are dum and you know nothing about football.  We know this because your nothingness shows every time you open your mouth.  You are dum and know nothing about nothing.  You always rip on the Dolphins, and that is unfair.  They are a very good football team who had some tough breaks.  Matt Moore is the clear QB of the future, and you need to stop bashing the Phins.  Clearly you hate them, and that means you hate Mimi, so you'd better not let me see you there or I'll lick your dum face in.


Carlos G - Royal Palm Beach, Florida


Dear Desperately in Need of a Proofreader (also known as Carlos from Royal Palm Beach),
   Oh wow, where do I start?  How about with your mastery of the language.  You see after the first "dum", I thought you may have had some sort of typo or autocorrect issue, but after you hit me with it twice more, I thought I'd do you the favor of introducing you to the concept of silent letters.  There is a "b" at the end of that word my friend, you just can't hear it.  Also, I urge you to purchase both a dictionary and a thesaurus as soon as possible.  I am not sure you even know what you meant by some of those sentences.

   Now onto the Dolphins.  I don't hate the Dolphins, but as with other teams I try to examine things with a critical eye.  I feel your pain Carlos.  Any QB in Miami since Marino who doesn't completely suck, is now touted as the QB of the Future.  Having said that, Moore doesn't totally suck, but he is not the future either.  There are some quality options for the Dolphins to look at this offseason, including some exciting guys in the draft.  If Steven Ross lets his football people do football, they may even land one.


   In closing Carlos, I have a few parting questions.  First, who is Mimi, and why do you think I hate her? And finally, although I typically don't like being threatened, I really do hope you meant "kick your face in".  If your plan, Fido, is to "lick my face in" all I can say is "ewww". Seeing however that you are in Royal Palm Beach which is at least an hour and a half north of Miami, I guess I don't have too much to worry about.

EZ,
   What did the Chargers ever do to you?  Did you loose money on them or something.  You are so harsh on them and yet you give all this praise to the damn Raiders.  The Raiders suck, and so do you.  Rivers is better than Palmer, and Gates is better than everyone on their whole team.  I can't wait until we roll south and pound them in their own house.  Now get off the Raider's jocks, and appreciate the greatness that is San Diego football.


Mark W - San Diego, California


Dear Desperately in Need of a GPS, or a Map, or a Compass (a.k.a Mark from San Diego),
     Riddle me this my friend.  How do the Chargers travel south bound to arrive in Oakland which a 491 miles north up I5?  I think you have been spending too much time out in the California sunshine Mark.
      Seriously though, I don't love the Raiders, and I don't hate the Chargers.  I simply call them as I see them.  I agree with you that Rivers > Palmer, but Oakland's running game > San Diego's running game.  Moreover, this is not about the Chargers vs the Raiders.  The Chargers have been too talented for too long to have gone nowhere.  All I said was that I think it may be time for a change at the top.  Turner is a good coach, and Smith has a good eye for talent, but they have yet to get anywhere with that.  The Spanos family decided to give these guys one more chance, but I have a hard time imagining that the result will change.
     As for Oakland, I hardly think I am a armor wearing member of the black hole.  All I said was that the hiring of Reggie McKenzie was a very smart move.  If he is the guy that many think he is, the Raiders could be a team on the rebound very soon.

Mailbag 5.21.10

In the Mailbag, I will answer questions sent in by you.  Remember, if you have a question you want to see answered, send it in an email to ezfootballfutures@gmail.com

Hello EZ…

   So with the spring ball now in the books, which schools do you think will be in the mix for the national title?  Any that are typically not on the national radar who could make some noise?  How about some schools that are usually title contenders that could take a step backwards? 

Matt B.
San Jose, CA

Hello Matt…

    Wow, a three part question.  Very nice.  Well, let’s start by talking about some teams who could be on the decline.  First, I am going to point out some SEC teams like Florida, Georgia, and Tennessee.  Each of these big time programs has been competitive for much of the last decade, especially Florida.  Each of these squads I think will miss the mark somewhat in 2010 though.  The Vols and the Dawgs are both rebuilding a bit.  Dooley becomes the third coach in three years in Knoxville, and the Dawgs need to find some answers at QB before they will challenge for the conference crown again.  The Gators lost an immense amount of talent this offseason, and although they guys that will replace them are all going to be studs, it may take a year for the team to rebuild the chemistry that made them title contenders and winners in recent years.

   

   Some other teams that could slide a bit include Oklahoma, who like the Gators lost a huge amount of talent to the NFL this offseason, and the Trojans, who now have a new HC in town.  Although talented, I am just not sure Lane Kiffin will have this team performing the way Pete Carroll did.  Don’t forget about Texas Tech either, who may find that although they wanted Mike Leetch out of town, he may have just taken that powerful aerial attack with him.  Also watch for slides from Penn State, Cincinnati, and Texas.

   

   As for some contenders, we have to start with the defending champs.  I think Bama will enter the season with a number one overall ranking, and deservedly so.  They are a very talented program who is well coached.  They still have one of the nation’s most dynamic players in Mark Ingram, and overall more experience.  Losing Cody, McClain, Jackson, and Arenas from their defense could hurt, but I expect them to still be a dominant program.

   

   Another team to watch will be of no surprise if you are a regular reader of the blog. I think that the Carolina Tar Heels could have quite a year in front of them.  Not typically a factor in the ACC, I think UNC will have maybe the best defense in the country this coming season.  With guys like Bruce Carter, Marvin Austin, Robert Quinn, Dunta Williams, and Quan Sturdivant all currently projected as possible first round picks in next year’s draft, I think this defense will keep them in every game they play this year.  If Butch Davis can motivate the offense to put some points on the board, they could very well make a run for the ACC title, and possibly enter the national title discussion this year.  Some other teams on the rise include South Carolina, Miami, Oregon State, Ohio State, and West Virginia.

Thanks again for the question Matt.

EZ…

    Recently, the sportswriters were asked to revote on Brian Cushing’s ROTY award from this past season.  Some of them felt this was completely inappropriate despite his testing positive for a PED.  What are your thoughts on this?

Casey M.
Dallas, TX

Casey…

   Thanks for the question.  First, let me be clear.  I was not warning teams against drafting Brian Cushing.  I said in numerous posts, that he has tenacity and upside, both of which would serve him well at the next level.  I did however question if he had the strength necessary to be linebacker worthy of a first round selection. 

  

   Now, another thing for me to point out here is that I am not a doctor.  Heck, I don’t even play one on TV.  As a result, I can only form an opinion based on the information I read and hear.  According to the league, Cushing failed a test early during the season, and then didn’t fail another one.  According to Cushing, he was not using performance enhancing drugs.  Was he?  Wasn’t he?  Ultimately I am not sure we will ever get a definitive answer to the question.

   

   I do know this however.  The league is very clear on what substances are banned.  If you take any of them, intentionally or not, you should be punished.  These are professional athletes we are talking about.  Their body is their tool needed to be effective at their trade.  Therefore they, and only they are responsible for what goes into it.  Each player has a responsibility to be cognizant of everything they ingest.  I don’t care if it was prescribed to them or not, they have to know what they are taking, and what the associated risks are. 

   

   Regardless of whether the intention to cheat was there or not, Cushing popped positive on a test, and the league rightfully reacted.  Suspensions are nothing new in the NFL.  Guys like Julius Peppers and Shawn Merriman have tested positive for banned substances before, and been punished accordingly.  I know some folks were turned off by the league calling for a revote on Cushing’s ROTY status, but I think it is the right thing to do.  If you cheat to win, and are later caught, you should not be allowed to reap the benefits of winning.  If it is found that a college team doesn’t follow proper protocols for player eligibility, they are stripped of wins, even after the fact.  If it is found out that Grammy Award winning artists actually were lip-synching,  they get stripped of their award.  It was absolutely the right move for the league to call for a revote on Cushing’s award.  Now, he did in fact re-win the vote, and as such will maintain his award, but I do think he tarnished his reputation in the process.  If he goes on from here, keeping his nose (and the rest of his body) clean, and continues to produce, we may eventually lose sight of this setback, ultimately filing it away next to blips like Brett Favre’s addiction to pain killers.  But until then, every success and accomplishment will be cautiously examined.  And that is the way it should be.  After all, intentionally or not, Cushing has shaken our trust in him.  It will take some time for him to earn it back.

Good question Casey.

Hey EZ,

Big fan of the blog, keep up the great work! My questions are about all of the conference expansion talk swirling around in the media right now. If the Big East winds up having 3 of it's top teams poached, do you think the conference can survive by adding some new schools, would it survive but wind up losing it's BCS eligibility, or would it simply be doomed and headed for extinction? If there is a possible future, which schools do you think would be the best candidates for addition? Thanks,

Eric R.
Ft Lauderdale, FL

Hey Eric…

   Conference expansion in college football has been a hot topic lately, so I am glad you asked this question.  Unfortunately the answer at this time is really unknown.  Right now, no one knows much, and anyone who claims they do, unless they are a conference commissioner or school president probably doesn’t know what they are talking about.  The truth is all we know is that the Big 10 has made strong overtures to 5 schools (Missouri, Nebraska, Pittsburgh, Rutgers, and Syracuse) in an attempt to become the nation’s first “super conference”.  How the other conferences react is still very much an unknown.  We have heard that the Big 12 is not interested in dissolving, and with teams like Texas supposedly wanting to stay put, there could be a real chance of the Big 12 maintaining its existence, although probably not in the form we know now.  As for the Big East, losing three teams out of an 8 team football conference, makes it difficult at best to remain a legitimate force, or maintain their BCS bowl alignments. 

   But since we don’t really know a lot let’s instead do a little speculation of our own.  Below, I have included a table which shows a new conference layout proposal I am suggesting.  The teams highlighted in yellow are current Big East schools.  The teams in green are currently members of the Big 12.  Those teams highlighted in blue are not currently part of a BCS conference.  Lets take a closer look.  

   As we have already mentioned, the Big 10 is making some waves, so let’s assume this moves forward.  They would now be a 16 team “super conference” with some good teams and rivalries.  Michigan and Ohio State stay put, as do Indiana and Purdue.  Pittsburgh comes into the conference and renews its in-state rivalry with Penn State, and both the Rutgers/Syracuse and Nebraska/Missouri rivalries come over in tact. 

   This move would drop the Big 12 from 12 teams down to 10.  My next prediction would include the Big 12 trying to replace their two lost teams with two others from the Big East (Cincinnati and Louisville).  These teams would open the Big 12 to some new television markets, which increases both conference revenues and conference footprint.

   The next conference to make a move would then be the ACC.  The ACC is no stranger to expansion, having added Miami, Virginia Tech and Boston College a few years ago. My prediction with them would be to add 4 more teams to become the second “super conference”.  Having lost 5 of 8 teams already, I would expect the ACC to grab the remaining three teams from the Big East (Connecticut, South Florida, and West Virginia), relegating the Big East to a basketball only conference.  Then, to round out the picture and give them an even 16 teams, I think they would go and add a school like C-USA’s Central Florida.  They are a big school, in a growing media market, and they would be able to renew the War on I-4, with rival and new conference-mates South Florida.

   To remain competitive in this new alignment, the Pac 10 will react, and try to add two schools of their own, increasing to a 12 school conference.  Boise State is a good program, who fits geographically, and would add to the conference’s overall talent pool.  Same thing could be said for BYU, who is currently a member of the smaller Mountain West conference.  

   This would leave us with 2 super conferences, and 3 other “BCS” conferences, accounting for a minimum of 5 of the 8 spots need to fill the current BCS bowl games.  For the final three spots, I would recommend making them “at large bids” given to some subset of a group comprised of the losers of the super conference title games, and the conference winners from all of the other conferences across the country like C-USA, the Mountain West, the WAC, the MAC, and the Sun Belt to name a few.  The only stipulation is that in order to obtain a bid to one of these bowls (and consequently be eligible for a national title), a school would have to be a member of a conference.  This would mean that a team like Notre Dame would still be eligible to compete in any of the other bowls with which they maintain an alliance, however, they would be excluded from BCS Bowls until they joined a conference. 

   So although this is all simple conjecture, this is one of my predictions.  Thanks again for the question Eric, and I hope I gave you something to think about.
 

. Big 10 SEC Big 12 ACC Pac 10 . Illinois Alabama Baylor Boston College Arizona . Indiana Arkansas Cincinnati Central Florida Arizona State . Iowa Auburn Colorado Clemson Boise State . Michigan Florida Iowa State Connecticut BYU . Michigan State Georgia Kansas Duke California . Minnesota Kentucky Kansas State Florida State Oregon . Missouri LSU Louisville Georgia Tech Oregon State . Nebraska Mississippi State Oklahoma Maryland Southern Cal . Northwestern Ole Miss Oklahoma State Miami Stanford . Ohio State South Carolina Texas North Carolina UCLA . Penn State Tennessee Texas A&M North Carolina State Washington . Pittsburgh Vandy Texas Tech South Florida Washington State . Purdue Virginia . Rutgers Virginia Tech . Syracuse Wake . Wisconsin West Virginia

Mailbag 3.28.10

In the Mailbag, I will answer questions sent in by you.  Remember, if you have a question you want to see answered, send it in an email to ezfootballfutures@gmail.com

EZ...
   So which teams in next months draft have the most potential to shake things up with their pick in round 1?


Pete R.
Orlando, FL

Pete...
   So the obvious answer here starts at the top with the Rams.  Although I think they will pull the trigger on Bradford first overall, should they opt to go in a different direction, the whole first round changes.  I know that is not the ground breaking answer you were looking for though, so lets take a deeper look.

   I think the next team with a real choice on their hands in Washington at 4.  I don't think Mike Shannahan looks at Jason Campbell as his QB of the future.  This means I expect the team to invest in a long term answer at QB early in the draft.  With Bradford gone, the Skins will have to choose between grabbing Clausen at #4, or waiting until round 2 to grab their signal caller.  As I have said in my Mocks, I see the team passing on Clausen, and trying to grab Colt McCoy in the second round.  This decision effects Buffalo, as Clausen would fall to them, but it also could effect the draft plans of a team like Cleveland.  The Browns are also reportedly looking at QBs early in this draft, and knowing Washington would likely try and take McCoy early in the second round, could prompt Holmgren and Company to try and swing a deal to push them into the bottom of the first round to swipe the Texas product.

   Another team whose first round decision could have an impact on the rest of the league would be Kansas City.  KC has a lot of needs, and therefore could go in many directions when they get on the clock at #5 overall.  The experts are seemingly split on what direction Scott Pioli will go with this choice.  Some have them drafting a o-lineman.  Others have them looking at Eric Berry.  I have even heard speculation that despite a bad performance at the combine that Joe Haden is still a possibility.  I still think the Chiefs will take the Tennessee standout with their pick, but if they don't that could drastically effect the decision of Cleveland who picks two picks later.  With Berry still available (I don't see Seattle making him their choice), I think the Browns would absolutely pull the trigger.  This would result in JPP falling.  That could alter the plans of Jacksonville at 10, or give Denver something else to consider at 11.  Depending on what happens with these two teams, alterations by one of them could impact Miami, the Giants, Tennessee, Atlanta, New England, and even Arizona.

   The truth is that with the draft, every team's decision effects the decisions of every team that comes after.  Just one change at the top can have a ripple effect that can be felt across multiple rounds.  Just because it seems like an obvious choice right now doesn't mean that how it will play next month, so really any team could the one who sends the draft in a whole new direction.



Yo EZ...
 Why are people not talking more about the Jets acquisition of LT as the move of the offseason so far.  I mean, clearly he is the best pickup for any team in free agency, right?


Marty L
Queens, NY

Yo Marty...
   So I am going to start this answer by saying that I do think the Jets picking up Tomlinson was a good move for them.  They have decided that their future at running back was going to be in the hands of Shonn Green, and they also have Leon Washington should he return from injury as the player he was before.  With veteran Thomas Jones gone, they did need a veteran presence to provide some leadership and take some carries off the shoulders of Green, and Tomlinson will be exactly that. 

   Now for the other half of the answer.  It sounds to me like you are thinking this LT is the same guy who was lighting it up in San Diego for much of this last decade, and unfortunately, he is simply not the same guy.  Sure, he is a future hall-of-famer, who in his prime, was the most dangerous weapon in the game, but we are now 3 years removed from those days.  Tomlinson has lost a step or two over the last few season, which is why the Chargers were willing to part with him in the first place.  He is a 30 year old back with a lot of mileage on his legs.  It is not an old wives tale that you can't win in this league featuring a 30 year old back.  Guys like Shawn Alexander, Jamal Lewis, Eddie George, Jerome Bettis, and even Emmit Smith all saw their production fall off after turning 30.

   As long as you aren't expecting the LT from 4-6 years ago, you should not be disappointed.  That being said, I don't see this as the move of the offseason.  Other great additions this offseason included Baltimore's acquisition of Q Boldin, Miami's signing of Karlos Dansby, Jacksonville adding Aaron Kampman, and the resigning of Ryan Clark by Pittsburgh.  I like the Julius Peppers pickup by the Bears, and Niners adding of David Carr too.

   Thanks for the question Marty.





EZ...
   Will the change in the format of the draft this year have any other effects on the draft itself?

Sam F
Akron, OH

Sam...
    I think the primary effect will be on the number of trades we see.  Under the previous format, it was not uncommon for teams to trade up to the first pick of the third round (first pick of the second day).  This is because after the first day, team had all night to review the players that has fallen, and typically some teams would convince themselves that there was a particular player still on the board who shouldn't have fallen.  As a result, they pull out all the stops and work a deal to grab the first pick of day two. 

    Under the new format, the draft will span an additional day, leaving teams with an additional night to talk themselves into making a deal to go up and grab the first pick of the upcoming day. 

   Thanks for the great question Sam.

The Mailbag 3.10

In the Mailbag, I will answer questions sent in by you.  Remember, if you have a question you want to see answered, send it in an email to ezfootballfutures@gmail.com

Hey EZ...
   I have been a loyal member of Raider Nation for my entire life.  Recently, we have struggled and you have been quite critical of many of our moves.  Do you see any hope for a turn around anytime soon?


Don C
Las Vegas, NV

Hey Don...
   You are not going to like my answer, but unfortunately, I do not see things turning around for your Raiders any time soon.

If you were to compile a list of companies that each year swapped out it's management team, hiring whomever will take the job, rather than guys who can execute the desired executive strategy, you would have a list of highly volatile, high risk companies, not worthy of your investment.  Unfortunately, that is the situation the Raiders are in.  Seemingly every year, Al Davis hires a new head coach and asks him to do the impossible.  When they cannot generate results in 12 months on the job (with their hands tied on personnel decisions), he fires them and starts again.  This is an awful situation, that continues to leave the team in a bad position.

Compounding the issue is that the NFL today is a different league from the 70's.  Today, it takes more than big, strong, fast athletes to win games.  No longer is it sufficient to field a team of big fast nasties and think they will be able to bully their way into victories.  It seems to me that the game may have past the great Al Davis by, and his draft selections and free agent signings over the last few season are all the evidence I need.

Unfortunately for you and the rest of Raider Nation, this may be the new status quo until Al Davis retires, sells the team, or dies.   Sorry Don.




EZ...
 Which players that are currently flying under the radar do you see as potential steals in the upcoming draft?


Joe H
Atlanta, GA

Joe...
   As usual there are a few guys who are not getting a lot of pub right now that I think teams will regret passing on in a few years.

The first two that come to mind are a linebacking pair from TCU.  Jerry Hughes has started making some noise recently, and has moved up to round 1 in my most recent mock, but his teammate Darryl Washington is just as talented, and like Jerry, has some big upside potential.  Both backers have the make-up of successful pros, and I think there will be some teams unhappy about missing the boat on them.

Another guy I like is South Florida's, George Selvie.  This guy was a standout for his first two seasons in Tampa, but fell off some during his junior and senior campaigns.  The primary reason for this is the focus other teams began to put on him.  In fact his presence is what I think allowed for fellow linemen Jason Pierre Paul to emerge as a first round candidate.  Selvie may have to move to an OLB in a 3-4 scheme in the pros, but is is physically gifted, and really knows how to get after opposing QBs.  Someone will get a find in the 3rd or 4th round.

Finally, someone else that I really like is Texas wideout, Jordan Shipley.  Watching this kid play makes me think a lot of Patriot wide receiver Wes Welker.  He has good hands, quick moves, and seems fearless.  I can see some team learning to use him in a multitude of ways because of his versatility, and this can pay dividends over time.





Hey there EZ...
   Assuming your most recent mock draft comes true, which team will most regret its selection in 5 years from now.

Jeff D
Houston, TX

Jeff...
    Great question man.  There are a few that could be in the mix for most sorry team.  The obvious choice would be the Raiders, as I have them making a huge reach for the physically talented but unproven Bruce Campbell from Maryland.  This is a huge risk, but Al Davis has shown no fear when it comes to selecting flyers.

Another possibility could be the Buffalo Bills with Jimmy Clausen.  I know Charlie Weis was in love with this guy, and he has been a hype machine since heading to South Bend, but something sits uneasy with me about him.  Maybe it is the fact that he couldn't consistently win at Notre Dame.  I really can't put my finger on it, but I think he could be a highly chosen miss in round 1.


Some other guys who could be a round 1 miss include Sergio Kindle, Dez Bryant, Earl Thomas, Jason Pierre Paul, CJ Spiller, and Jahvid Best.