Mailbag 3-31-12

Today's mailbag is filled with some great questions, so let's have at it...

EZ...

    Looking over your most recent mock, I saw a lot of movement.  I know this comes from signings, and player movement as pro-days come and go.  Of the guys you have slotted to go in round 1, who are the most likely to fall out of round 1, and which players from round 2 are the most likely to step up and replace them?

Kevin T - Chicago, Illinois

Kevin,

    Great question.  Much of this will be related to player positions as compared to team need, but if i had to guess, I would expect that the most likely to fall out of the first round include Lamar Miller, David Wilson, and Michael Brockers.  I like both Miller and Wilson, but in today's NFL, the running back position has been devalued.  More and more we are seeing situations like that of Mark Ingram.  Very talented backs who stock falls on draft day because of the position.  After Richardson, I'm not sold on any other back being a must have in round 1.  As for Brockers, I have reservations.  He landed back inside the first round based on my expectations of how teams perceive him more than how I perceive him.  he does have an upside, but he has bust written all over him in my opinion.

     As for the guys most likely to replace them, Stephon Gilmore had an incredible pro day, and has been flying up draft boards.  For some teams, he has supplanted both Jenkins and Kirkpatrick behind Claiborne.  I also really like Zach Brown.  He only fell because of team needs, and I would not at all be surprised to hear his name called on the first night of the draft.  Stephen Hill is another name on the rise.

     Thanks again for the great question Kevin.

Hey There EZ,

     As we get closer to the draft, I was wondering which team is most likely to try and trade down in the first round?  Thanks.

Bill L - Carson City, NV

Hey Bill...

    This is a very interesting question, because there are a lot of teams who will look to move around the board on draft night.  The easy answer here would be New England, as I still fully expect them to try and move one of their two first rounders to continue to collect more picks.  Now for some of the less obvious ones.
     Minnesota sits at three, and after his pro day, I expect the Vikes to try and build a market for Tannehill,
to entice Miami to pay up to leap Cleveland and grab him.
     I think the Bucs would be smart to explore trade down options at 5, especially if Claiborne is off the board. Many experts have them selecting Richardson there, but if Claiborne is gone, I think they would be best served to trade down to the 10-12 range, add an additional pick and then grab Courtney Upshaw.
     From what I hear, St Louis is willing to listen to offers to trade down again, and if Miami sits tight at 8, and Tannehill passes Cleveland at 4, I could see St Louis trying to auction off the pick for a team who wants the QB.
     Finally, I think depending on who is still available when they do get on the clock, Miami may want to consider moving down.  They have a few prominent needs, and adding an extra early pick or two certainly wouldn't hurt.

     Thanks for the question Bill.  I sure do appreciate it.

EZ,

    So after the combine you wrote about Josh Robinson being on the rise.  Now in the most recent mock, you have him sliding back into the third round again.  What is the deal?


Anthony B - Orlando, FL

Anthony...

    So when I declare a stock on the rise, it does mean that his value proposition is going up, but it does not mean it will stay that way.  On my board, Robinson was given a 5th round grade when the season ended.  Then his combine performance moved him up 2 full rounds on my board.  That is quite a leap.  Could Robinson go in the second? Absolutely.  But when I do my Mocks, I try to stay true to my player rankings.  As of right now, I have Robinson ranked 10th amongst all corners.  Although he is blazing fast, his coverage skills, especially in man, do need some work.  If he gets into the right system, he could absolutely develop into an excellent corner in the league, but base on what I know now, I would feel more comfortable with the prospects of any of the nine guys I have rated ahead of him.
     Having said this, corner is a hot position, especially considering how much of a passing league the NFL has become.  Nickle corners are now a necessity, not a luxury, and thus most teams in the league could benefit from an additional skilled corner on their roster.  Corners go fast during the draft, and I expect this year to be no different.  It is an absolute possibility that before the end of round 2, 10-12 corners have had their names called.  If that is the case, expect that Robinson would be one of those.

     Thanks again Anthony for the question.