Mailbag 3-12-12

Time to take a look at the old mailbag, and see what we have waiting for us today...

EZ...

    So I really respect the work that you do, but I don't always agree with your analysis.  Since the beginning of draft season, you have had the Husker corner, Alfonso Denard rated as a first round player.  The guy may have been good last year, but that was an anomaly.  He was a total dud this past season, and in no way deserves to be picked in the first.  What gives?

Brandon L - Stillwater, Oklahoma

Brandon,

    First let me say thank you for both the read, and the compliment.  Now onto your question.  Just like pro scouts and GMs, I sometimes see a guy and fall in love.  The first time I really watched Denard play was last year, and I was very impressed.  I think my opinion of him formed then, and was reinforced over the rest of the season.  As I have said in the last few mocks, Denard's play did fall off this past season, but maybe the fall off was the anomaly.  Either way, I don't have him graded as a round 1 talent.  In my book he has a solid round 2 grade.  I just had the Lions reaching for him in recent mocks.  Having said that, every year I go back and take second and third looks a some guys.  I have done that recently with a few guys, including South Carolina CB, Stephon Gilmore.  I think that I have underrated Gilmore and have since bumped him up my board, which will have an impact on future mocks.  

    And before you ask, some of the other names that have been recently reviewed again, and earned an increase over their previous rating include:

• Ruben Randall, WR, LSU
• Kevin Zeitler, OG, Wisconsin
• Vinny Curry, DE, Marshall
• Jared Crick, DE, Nebraska
• Travis Lewis, OLB, Oklahoma
• Mike Adams, OT, Ohio State

Brandon, thanks again for the question, and I hope you keep on reading.

Hey Biggie,

     So I know you focus on the emerging college kids, but I am sure you have an opinion on the whole Peyton Manning thing.  Who do you think has the edge to get him, and how to you think the landscape of the league changes based on what he decides?  Who else could be effected by this?  Thanks for writing this stuff.

Chris T - Knoxville, TN

Chris...

    Thanks for the question man.  Although I do typically spend more time on the college kids, I will share with you my thoughts on Peyton.  First, let me say that there has never, ever, been a free agent the caliber of Peyton Manning on the open market, and I say that with all due respect to the late Reggie White.  I am in the group of folks who still think Peyton has something left in the tank, and would be a great add for just about anyone, even if only for a year or three.  Having said that, I think at this point it is down to three teams for Manning.  I will give you the impact scenarios, in order of most likely destination, first to third.

Arizona Cardinals - In my mind, Arizona is the best destination for Manning of the teams still in the mix.  Now if he does in fact land in Arizona, the first casualty of this decision will be Kevin Kolb.  The Cards sent picks to the Eagles in exchange for Kolb last year, and this year they will finish paying for that deal. Despite his struggles last year before going down with an injury, Kolb will still have some market value.  Teams like the Seahawks, and Dolphins; and to a lesser extent, Cleveland and Denver will all kick the tires on him.  At the end of the day, I would guess that if Peyton lands in Arizona, Kolb heads to Seattle.  

Denver Broncos - Denver was the first stop on Peyton's tour, and as it appears from all of the reports, was a team who made a great impression on him.  Having John Elway calling the shots sure doesn't hurt.  Now if Peyton does indeed choose the mile high city, obviously the most impacted other in this scenario would be Tim Tebow.  He would be out and even with the Manning signing, Denver will still have some PR to do because of the fanatic following Tebow has.  Should this happen, I would expect that Tebow will be shopped and eventually land in Jacksonville.  They are a franchise whose new owner has publicly declared that it was a mistake to pass on him in the draft a few years ago.  But if Timmy does head home, this would impact last years first round pick, Blaine Gabbart.  I would expect the Jags to shop Gabbart, and I would think the most logical destination for him will be Miami.  They are searching for a young signal caller to build around, and I think they would likely prefer the former Tiger to Tannehill, or anyone else from this year's class (other than Luck or Griffin, who they will not get).  Now the timing on this will be very important because I think Miami will prefer Flynn over Gabbart, so if they can sign him, Blain may be in search for another team.  The Seahawks would also be in heavy play here.

Miami Dolphins - Although a distant third, it still appears as if Miami is in the Manning race.  Should he land in Miami, I think the person most impacted by this will be Matt Flynn.  Miami does not have an incumbent who would be dropped with Peyton's arrival.  Chad Henne will not be back in aqua, and Matt Moore will return to the bench to pitch in relief.  Flynn however is the best free agent QB not named Manning, and right now he is positioned to watch Seattle and Miami start bidding against each other for his services.  If the Phins land Manning, that reduces Flynn's market by one major player, and thus will cost him some cash.  Sure, some other teams will be in the mix for Flynn, but it will be more cursory.  Outside of Seattle and Miami, the only other team who desperately needs a QB is Washington, and they just dealt to land Griffin, and thus left the marketplace.

Thanks for the question Chris.

Hello EZ,

    Each year you give all of the prospects a rating based on the round you think they should be drafted.  I know there are typically 30 or so players who get a first round grade.  But among those guys, aren't there some guys who are just a bit better? Obviously very few of them, if any, will eventually land in Canton, but of this class, who has the best chance of that?  Thanks so much.

Rex F - Austin, TX

Rex...

    Thanks so much for your question.  Let me start by warning against enshrining anyone from any class prior to them ever having played a down in the NFL.  All of the evaluations in the world sometimes mean nothing in the end.  Having said that, there is in fact a rating that I have which is better than a round 1 grade, and that is my "Elite" rating.  Players who are elite, are guys who I feel have the best potential to be true game changers at the next level.  These are the guys I think that opposing coaches could lose sleep over have to game plan against.  From this year's group, I have pegged 6 different players as Elite.  They are listed below.

• Andrew Luck, QB, Stanford - Luck is really a once in a lifetime type prospect.  This guy is simply the best rated prospect to come out of college in the past quarter century.  Simply put, he has the best chance of anyone to be that elite talent.
• Robert Griffin, QB, Baylor - RG3 is more of the breed of new QBs than Luck, but he has an exceptional upside.  As a mobile QB, people make the mistake of comparing him to Mike Vick and Cam Newton from a talent perspective, but this would be a mistake.  Griffin is some much farther along than either of those guys at the same point in their careers.  Yes, RG3 can run, and he will shred a defense when he does, but he is a true pass first kind of player.  He wants to sit in the pocket and find his target, and that is what he strives to do.  He will however use is considerable speed to create opportunities should he not find anything.  There is a very bright future on the horizon for him in the NFL.
• Morris Claiborne, CB, LSU - The natural comparison for Claiborne is his former teammate, drafted a year ago, Patrick Peterson.  Now except for Peterson's exceptional return ability, Claiborne grades out higher in every other way.  The NFL is right now a passing league, and this puts a premium on true shut down corners.  Claiborne has the best chance of anyone in this class at becoming a Revis type corner.  He has all of the skills you want in a guy who will match up against another team's number 1 receiver.  
• Matt Kalil, OT, USC - It has been said time and time again, that if the QB is the most important position on the field, the blind side tackle is the second most critical.  Kurt Warner, QB of the Greatest Show on Turf, touts Orlando Pace as the key to his success in St Louis.  Trent Dilfer who was under center for the Ravens when they hoisted the Lombardi Trophy, claims that the offense would have been dramatically different if not for Jonathan Ogden.  Kalil has enough talent in him to eventually be mentioned alongside those guys.  He will give his signal caller enough time in an upright position to be able to find targets downfield, and will prevent him from taking some potentially devastating hits in the back.  
• Trent Richardson, RB, Alabama - Yes the league has gone to a running back by committee approach, and yes this does devalue the "factor back" to some extent, but Richardson is the best back to come out of college since Adrian Peterson in '07.  In the right system, Richardson can be difference between wins and losses for a team, and in the end, that is what teams are looking for.  Richardson has exceptionally rare lower body strength, and along with his low center of gravity, this makes him very difficult to bring down. He may not have the top end, breakaway speed that some guys possess, but he is by no means slow, and I doubt he will get caught from behind.  The bottom line with Richardson is I think of anyone in this class, he has the best chance at making an immediate impact.
• Justin Blackmon, WR, Oklahoma State - Blackmon is the final player to make the cut into the elite category.  His production for the Cowboys is unmatched, and he has all of the right tools to bring it at the next level.  An easy comparison for Blackmon is his former teammate, Dez Bryant.  Bryant fell on draft day, but he is beginning to emerge as a real threat in Dallas.  I like Blackmon better than I did Bryant.  I think Blackmon uses his body better at the same point in their careers.  Now that the second pick in the draft has been dealt, Minnesota is in the pole position to hold a sweepstakes to see who will have the right to add this guy to their roster next season.

One last point to make on this subject.  Although the guys I think are elite are those who I feel have the best chance at being real difference makers in the league, there are always guys drafted lower who also develop into those type of players.  Again, just pointing out how inexact the "science" of player evaluation really is.  Rex, thanks again for the question.  I hope to talk with you again soon.