The first week of free agency is coming to a close, and most of the biggest fish available have found their homes. There has been a considerable amount of movement as teams have addressed some of their holes via free agency. As other FAs get signed, more juggling of the draft is likely. Also, pro days and private workouts continue, and this too will have an effect. Still, it seems like a good time to take our first post-FA look at the 2012 NFL Draft.
1. Indianapolis Colts – Andrew Luck, QB, Stanford
With the first week having come to a close, the most impactful thing the Colts have done was to secure the return of Reggie Wayne. With his age, and the absence of Manning, Wayne is no longer an elite option. Having said that, Wayne will get to finish his career in Indy, and will serve to provide Andrew Luck a reliable pair of hands to throw the ball to as he adjusts to the pro game.
2. Washington Redskins via St. Louis – Robert Griffin III, QB, Baylor
The Skins paid a lot to move up to two, and they will select RG3 with this pick. Thanks to free agency, he will even have some targets to throw to, including Pierre Garcon, Josh Morgan, and those who return from last year’s roster. In the end, if Griffin does prove to be a franchise player, and he can get enough from the guys Washington will add in FA, the cost will have been well worth it.
3. Minnesota Vikings – Matt Kalil, OT, USC
The Vikings biggest addition thus far during free agency was TE, John Carlson. This doesn’t impact their first round selection. They still need a rock to anchor the line, and Matt Kalil will be that rock. He has established himself as the premier tackle option in this draft, and the Vikes will be sure glad to have him around to help the development of their QB of the future, Christian Ponder.
4. Cleveland Browns – Trent Richardson, RB, Alabama
Cleveland is now in the point position for the 2012 draft. What they do with this pick will sway the rest of the first round and beyond. With RG3 spoken for, the Browns will be left to pick between the draft’s best RB and the best WR. Both will be positions of need for Cleveland, and in the end, I think they should pick Richardson. Hillis is now in KC, and to grab a premiere RB like Richardson will be huge for the Dawg Pound.
5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Morris Claiborne, CB, LSU
When free agency began, the Bucs came out of the gate swinging, and they have landed some players. The V-Jax add, although more costly than necessary, will immediately help this offense, and Carl Nick at Guard was a great addition. This will allow them to move Zuttah to center to replace Jeff Faine. Eric Wright was also added in the secondary, but he is not a 1. I am not really sold on him as even a 2. Still, if the Bucs add Claiborne here, and Talib stays out of jail, Wright makes a very solid nickel corner, and the Bucs are looking good.
6. St Louis Rams via Washington – Justin Blackmon, WR, Oklahoma State
What a phenomenal off season thus far for St Louis. First they land their coach in Jeff Fisher. Then they get a king’s ransom from Washington for the second pick. In free agency the landed two fantastic additions in Cortland Finnegan and Scott Wells, and now they are in position to fill their hole at wide out with the draft’s top option in Blackmon. With the haul from Washington, this team will be contenders again in no time flat.
7. Jacksonville Jaguars – Quinton Coples, DE, North Carolina
Jacksonville has a new head coach, a young QB, and now has added a potential playmaker in Laurent Robinson to stretch the field. Now the focus will be on defense, and the decision will come down to Coples or Melvin Ingram. I like Ingram a lot, but Coples has a better upside. He is not Julius Peppers, but he can become him if he continues to develop, and that will be too tempting for the Jags to pass on.
8. Miami Dolphins – Ryan Tannehill, QB, TAMU
The Dolphins offseason has been the exact opposite of the Rams. It has been a disaster. First they get left at the altar by Fisher. Then they get stood up by Manning. Now the sure thing, Matt Flynn has chosen to play in Seattle, leaving them negotiating with Alex Smith, and David Garrard while pondering making an offer to Denver for Tebow. Oh my. New OC Mike Sherman better hope Cleveland doesn’t surprise everyone and grab his former signal caller with pick 4. If he is still available at 8, the Phins have to pounce.
9. Carolina Panthers – Dontari Poe, DT, Memphins
The Panthers have been very quiet in the early part of free agency. It seems that Ron Rivera and company will look to the draft to try and fill their needs. Both WR and CB are also significant holes, but with Blackmon and Claiborne off the board, Poe will be the choice at DT. If his combine performance is indicative of a revitalized player, Poe could be a beast. If it was simply the case of a work-out warrior showing off, he could be a bust.
10. Buffalo Bills – Riley Reiff, OT, Iowa
Not even on the radar prior to free agency, the Bills stepped up and landed the largest defensive prize in free agency, Mario Williams. He will immediately improve this squad’s anemic pass rush from a year ago. This will allow them to let Melvin Ingram slide, and instead focus on shoring up the o-line with Reiff. I had been high on the Iowa product from much of the season, but after some additional tape, I am starting to question if he is really the stud I had thought. The Bills however, will be happy to make this pick, and focus on other need later in the draft.
11. Kansas City Chiefs – Luke Kuechly, ILB, Boston College
Coming into last week, the two biggest needs for KC were at RT and TE. Both have been filled already with the additions of Eric Winston, and Kevin Boss. Brandon Carr left town for Dallas, and this makes CB their top priority now, but with a need at ILB, and the skills of Kuechly, KC will happily make this pick. Kuechly is a tackling machine, and he brings a fantastic work ethic with him. He will be very popular both on the field and in the locker room, and KC is a team on the move.
12. Seattle Seahawks –David DeCastro, OG, Stanford
After adding Matt Flynn, the Seahwks are no longer in danger of having to reach for a QB here. DE is still their biggest need, but Guard became an issue once the team released Robet Gallery. The decision will come down to DeCastro and Melvin Ingram. I think in the end, the team chooses DeCastro in an effort to protect their new investment in Flynn.
13. Arizona Cardinals – Melvin Ingram, DE, South Carolina
Seattle taking DeCastro along with the addition of Adam Snyder in free agency will allow for Arizona to take advantage of Melvin Ingram’s bad day, and land him at 13. Ingram will immediately improve this defense with his ability to line up at DE or any LB spot. Sure the Cards whiffed on Manning, but all will not be lost when they catch this drafts most unfortunate faller.
14. Dallas Cowboys – Cordy Glenn, OG, Georgia
The Boys addressed their biggest need in the offseason by landing Brandon Carr from KC. Now they can focus on continuing to improve their front by adding the former Bulldog, Glenn. Cordy Glenn has been moving up draft boards due to a very strong offseason. His ability to play either inside or out is another big nod in his favor. The pick may not be sexy, but if it works out the way Tyron Smith has, Dallas will be thrilled.
15. Philadelphia Eagles – Courtney Upshaw, OLB, Alabama
Last year, the eagles were in the midst of signing every big free agent they could, building the “Dream Team”. Now, we have a very clear picture of how that worked out for them. This offseason they have been quiet, and sitting at 15 in the draft, they will be luck to land a guy with Upshaw’s upside to fill a position of need for the club. Resigning Jackson to a long term deal was nice, but getting help on the defense will be even more appreciated next season.
16. New York Jets – Jonathan Martin, OT, Stanford
After having landed Leron Landry at safety this offseason, Alabama’s Mark Barron will no longer be an for Gang Green. Now, GM Tannenbaum can focus on keeping their newly extended QB upright. Jonathan Martin is the best prospect remaining in a position to do just that, and I think they need to make this pick here.
17. Cincinnati Bengals via Oakland – Dre Kirkpatrick, CB, Alabama
Thanks to the Carson Palmer deal, the Bengals have two first rounders to continue to build their franchise. Losing Jonathan Joseph last season hurt, so adding his replacement should be their priority. Thanks to the Cowboys adding of Brandon Carr, Kirkpatrick will slip to them here, and allow them to add the second best corner in the draft. Janoris Jenkins will be a consideration too, but in the end Kirkpatrick will be the safer pick.
18. San Diego Chargers – Janoris Jenkins, CB, North Alabama
The Bolts need some help in the interior of that o-line, and after the defection of Jackson to Tampa Bay, they had a hole at wide out too. Notre Dame WR, Michael Floyd would have been a consideration had the team not signed both Robert Meachem and Eddie Royal. Cordy Glenn would have been a consideration had he not already been taken. Instead the team will get the huge upside of Janoris Jenkins in the secondary. He fills a hole, and if he can stay out of trouble, may surpass Kirkpatrick and challenge Clairborne as the best corner to come from this class.
19. Chicago Bears – Fletcher Cox, DT, Mississippi State
For all of my previous mocks, I pegged the Bears to land Michael Floyd from Notre Dame. Then they went out and added Brandon Marshall by trading with Miami. We can consider that need filled. Now the Bears will look at o-linemen, corners, and a DT. Of those positions, Cox represents the best value still available. He has the skills to be a penetrating force up front, but he still needs to grow into his body a bit more. That however, is only a matter of time for this youngster.
20. Tennessee Titans – Andre Branch, DE, Clemson
Tennessee has now missed on both Manning and Super Mario. They are still almost exactly as they were at the start of free agency, needing to find a way to get after the QB. Derrick Morgan will need to stay healthy and improve, but they also need another option, and Branch will be that guy. He has the raw ability, and alongside a healthy Morgan, can make opposing OCs take notice. Michael Floyd will also be a consideration to add another offensive weapon, but in the end, defense should win out.
21. Cincinnati Bengals – David Wilson, RB, Virginia Tech
I expected the Bengals to be in play more for some of the available backs in free agency, including Peyton Hillis and Michael Bush. As of now they have not added any ball carriers worth noting, and thus they look to the rookie class. David Wilson is one in the next group of backs after Richardson, and I think he makes the most sense of the options here. He was prolific at Va Tech, and should it translate to the pro game, he, Dalton, and Green give the Bengals a bright future.
22. Cleveland Browns via Atlanta – Mark Barron, S Alabama
Thus far in free agency, the Browns have addressed the d-line. After having taken Richardson at 4, I now think they look to fill a hole in their secondary at safety. There is a real risk of a team trading up in front of them to grab the Alabama product, but since this mock doesn’t predict trades, Holmgren will be a very happy camper. Barron has all of the skills you want in a safety, and with the pass happy NFL, having a good safety is now a requirement.
23. Detroit Lions – Dont’a Hightower, LB, Alabama
In my opinion, corner is the biggest need for this team. This year’s class of corners is deep, but not top heavy. Instead of reaching for the next best corner in Stephon Gilmore, I expect the Detroit front office to instead work the middle of that defense and add Hightower. He is another player who has had a strong offseason and is on the rise. He will be a good addition, both for his playing and leadership skills. With him on this defense and some corner help in a later round, Detroit may be the real deal.
24. Pittsburgh Steelers – Whitney Mercillus, DE, Illinois
Pittsburgh has cut ties with some of their key veterans, including Hines Ward, Aaron Smith, and James Farrior. Replacing Smith and Farrior will be of the utmost priority. Aaron Smith was quietly, the best 3-4 DE of the last decade, and his absence will be the hardest to replace. Mercillus will have big shoes to fill, but he seems to have the talent necessary. The question is, will he put it all together consistently in the NFL?
25. Denver Broncos – Coby Fleener, TE, Stanford
Prior to landing Peyton Manning, the priority for the Broncos was finding a defensive asset who could help continue to build up the defense. Now that Manning is in the fold though, there are some other needs that have emerged that this team must fill. Manning needs to be kept safe, and thus a need at Center, and there have to be better targets to throw to. It looks as if Jeff Saturday and Brandon Stokley will be added via free agency, and now Elway can add a new TE option for Manning. In Indy, Dallas Clark was a big part of the offense, and now if Denver, Fleener can be that guy.
26. Houston Texans – Michael Floyd, WR, Notre Dame
Floyd is one of the guys who will be most negatively impacted by some of the free agent signing, and he will unfairly slide. Tennessee and Denver will both flirt with the idea of selecting him, but instead he will fall to the excitedly waiting arms of the Texans. The Texans are one of the hot picks to make a run next year, and if they can get another weapon across from Andre Johnson, they may be the team to watch. Floyd has all the skills necessary to be exactly that guy.
27. New England Patriots via New Orleans – Zach Brown, LB, New England
Every year the Pats field an excellent ball club, and I think it is because of a combination of having this generation’s best coach on the side line, and all of the draft day gymnastics this team always seem to execute. Two more first round picks for the Pats will allow for New England to continue to re-stock rather than rebuild. Zach Brown is a tremendous athlete, and although raw, open to learning. With the tutelage available to him in New England, he can develop into what I expect to be an excellent force at linebacker.
28. Green Bay Packers – Nick Perry, DE/OLB, USC
The Packers really have very few weaknesses, so they can really go in any direction with this pick. Despite being eliminated from the playoffs early, I still feel Green Bay is the best team in the league. The defense was a little disappointing at times last year however, and finding someone to put pressure on opposing signal caller, other than Mathews has to be a priority. Perry comes from the same school as Mathews, and he is a high motor player who I think will fit quite nicely in that defense.
29. Baltimore Ravens – Peter Konz, C, Wisconsin
Baltimore is another very good team without too many pressing needs. Unfortunately they have some key players who are getting a bit long in the tooth (Lewis, Reed, Birk) that they need to start to think about replacing. Birk is coming back for what most expect to be his final season. Drafting the best center in this year’s class would be a wise investment in this team’s future.
30. San Francisco 49ers – Alshon Jeffery, WR, South Carrolina
San Fran has now entered damage control mode, after making a failed play for Manning. Alex Smith’s feelings have been hurt, and they really need for him to return now. Giving him some new toys may help ease those hurt feelings. The team has added Randy Moss and Mario Manningham, but I am not sold on either one of those guys being a long-term answer as a true 1. Crabtree has talent but hasn’t put it together. I think choosing Jeffery is the smartest move. He has all of the skills you want, and really was a great target in the college game.
31. New England Patriots – Lamar Miller, RB, Miami
I still have confidence that the Pats will eventually deal this pick, but assuming they keep it, I see them choosing Miller here. I know New England doesn’t have a tremendous amount of needs, but it looks like the law firm will be moving out of Boston. Miller is an exciting talent who could help this run game and keep the Pats as the team to beat in the AFC East.
32. New York Giants – Jerel Worthy, DT, Michigan State
The Giants are a tough team to peg because more than anyone they really do stick to the best player available philosophy. Worthy fits the bill as the best player remaining on the board. Although I don’t see the G-men having a need up front on the D, Jerry Reese has shown time and time again that he will pick the best guy with no thought to position.
33. St Louis Rams – Ronnell Lewis, LB, Oklahoma
34. Indianapolis Colts – Kendall Wright, WR, Baylor
35. Minnesota Vikings – Stephon Gilmore, CB, South Carolina
36. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Levonte David, LB, Nebraska
37. Cleveland Browns – Stephen Hill, WR, Georgia Tech
38. Jacksonville Jaguars – Travis Lewis, OLB, Oklahoma
39. St Louis Rams via Washington – Mike Adams, OT, Ohio State
40. Carolina Panthers – Mohamed Sanu, WR, Rutgers
41. Buffalo Bills – Ruben Randall, WR, LSU
42. Miami Dolphins – Harrison Smith, S, Notre Dame
43. Seattle Seahawks – Vinny Curry, DE, Marshall
44. Kansas City Chiefs – Alfonso Denard, CB, Nebraska
45. Dallas Cowboys – Chandler Jones, DE, Syracuse
46. Philadelphia Eagles – Michael Brockers, DT, LSU
47. New York Jets – Shea McClellin, LB, Boise State
48. New England Patriots via Oakland – Antonio Allen, S, South Carolina
49. San Diego Chargers – Kevin Zeitler, G, Wisconsin
50. Chicago Bears – Jayron Hosley, CB, Virginia Tech
51. Philadelphia Eagles via Arizona – David Molk, C, Michigan
52. Tennessee Titans – Chase Minnefield, CB, Minnesota
53. Cincinnati Bengals – Kelechi Osmele, G, Iowa State
54. Detroit Lions – Trumaine Johnson, CB, Montana
55. Atlanta Falcons – Brandon Washington, OG, Miami
56. Pittsburgh Steelers – Casey Heyward, CB, Vanderbilt
57. Denver Broncos – Brandon Weeden, QB, Oklahoma State
58. Houston Texans – Devon Still, DT, Penn State
59. New Orleans Saints – Brandon Thompson, DT, Clemson
60. Green Bay Packers – Doug Martin, RB, Boise State
61. Baltimore Ravens – Mychal Kendrick, LB, California
62. San Francisco 49ers – Nick Foles, QB, Arizona
63. New England Patriots – Josh Robinson, CB, Central Florida
64. New York Giants – Chris Polk, RB, Washington
65. Indianapolis Colts – Dewayne Allen, TE, Clemson
66. St Louis Rams – Brock Osweiler, QB, Arizona State
67. Minnesota Vikings – Chris Owusu, WR, Stanford
68. Cleveland Browns – Kirk Cousins, QB, Michigan State
69. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Bobbie Massey, OT, Ole Miss
70. Washington Redskins – Amini Silatolu, G, Midwestern State
71. Jacksonville Jaguars – Joe Adams, WR, Arkansas
72. Buffalo Bills – Bruce Irvin, DE/OLB, West Virginia
73. Miami Dolphins – Jarius Wright, WR, Arkansas
74. Chicago Bears via Carolina – Zebrie Sanders, OT, Florida State
75. Kansas City Cheifs – George Lloka, S, Boise State
76. Seattle Seahawks – Jared Crick, DE, Nebraska
77. Philadelphia Eagles – Kennan Robinson, LB, Texas
78. New York Jets – Nick Toon, WR, Wisconsin
79. San Diego Chargers – Billy Winn, DE, Boise State
80. Miami Dolphins via Chicago – Orson Charles, TE, Georgia
81. Arizona Cardinals – Jamell Fleming, CB, Oklahoma
82. Dallas Cowboys – Brandon Taylor, S, LSU
83. Tennessee Titans – Travis Benjamin, WR, Miami
84. Cincinnati Bengals – Kendall Reyes, DT, UConn
85. Atlanta Falcons – Ladarius Green, TE, UL-Lafayette
86. Detroit Lions – Markelle Martin, S, Oklahoma State
87. Pittsburgh Steelers – Sean Spence, LB, Miami
88. Denver Broncos – Mike Martin, DT, Michigan
89. Houston Texans – Andrew Datko, OT, Florida State
90. New Orleans Saints – Bobby Wagner, LB, Utah State
91. Green Bay Packers – Leonard Johnson, CB, Iowa State
92. Baltimore Ravens – LeMichael James, RB, Oregon
93. San Francisco 49ers – Phillip Thomas, S, Syracuse
94. New England Patriots – Phillip Blake, C, Baylor
95. New York Giants – Mike Brewster, C, Ohio State
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