With this mock, we see some serious movement from some players in the first round. Some of this comes from some free agent signings, some from some pro-day performances, and the rest simply from my re-evaluating team needs, and front office habits. Of course shuffling in round 1 leads to adjustments in subsequent rounds, so lets take a look how I see things falling now. More changes will come after I add in the compensatory selections that will be awarded by the NFL later today, but for now...
1. Indianapolis Colts – Andrew Luck, QB, Stanford
After the great pro day of Robert Griffin, some were postulating that the Colts should select him first overall. Then the next day, Andrew Luck had his own brilliant performance, and as a results, seems to have solidified himself as the first pick. The Colts will use Luck as the franchise player that Manning has been for them for more than the last decade. If he reaches his potential, the Colts next early QB selection is currently in 5th or 6th grade.
2. Washington Redskins via St. Louis – Robert Griffin III, QB, Baylor
If anyone had any questions about if RG3 has what it takes to be a franchise QB, those are gone now. His performance at Baylor’s pro day could not have gone any better. He made all the throws, and simply dazzled with his physical ability and his poise. It is very rare to have two QBs of this caliber come from the same draft, but it seems that this is the year that it will happen.
3. Minnesota Vikings – Matt Kalil, OT, USC
I recently read some speculation that the Vikings are looking at Morris Claiborne with this pick. The Vikes do need help in their secondary, and Claiborne deserves a look, but in the end, Kalil should be the pick. He has the great upside of all of the league’s best left tackles, and with the investment the team made in Christian Ponder last year, they have to ensure his protection. Kalil is the top tackle in the draft, and should be picked here.
4. Cleveland Browns – Trent Richardson, RB, Alabama
Cleveland is now in the point position for the 2012 draft. What they do with this pick will sway the rest of the first round and beyond. Arguments will be made for Justin Blackmon, Trent Richardson, and even Ryan Tannehill. At the end of the day however, Richardson has the potential to make the quickest impact of any of these three. In 2007 the team passed on Adrian Peterson. I don’t see them doing that again.
5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Morris Claiborne, CB, LSU
The Bucs have some good young pieces in place, and they added some nice veteran presence with V-Jax and Carl Nicks. They also got the news that stalwart, Ronde Barber will return for his 16
th NFL season. Drafting Claiborne here gives them the best corner in this draft, and enables them to ease him into the defense. When Barber does hang them up, or Talib dons his inevitable Orange Jumpsuit, Claiborne will be ready to immediately step in.
6. St Louis Rams via Washington – Justin Blackmon, WR, Oklahoma State
What a phenomenal off season thus far for St Louis. First they land their coach in Jeff Fisher. Then they get a king’s ransom from Washington for the second pick. In free agency the landed two fantastic additions in Cortland Finnegan and Scott Wells, and now they are in position to fill their hole at wide out with the draft’s top option in Blackmon. With the haul from Washington, this team will be contenders again in no time flat.
7. Jacksonville Jaguars – Melvin Ingram, DE, South Carolina
The Jaguars coaches and front office made it apparent they wanted nothing to do with Tim Tebow, and as a result, he chose to go to New York. It made it very clear to me that Gene Smith is truly calling the shots in Jacksonville. That being said, I now expect him to take the safer DE in Melvin Ingram. Ingram lacks the upside of Quinton Coples, but he is the safer pick. Considering recent pick like Alualu, it indicates to me that Smith prefers the safer, players with good technique and character to guys with greater upside and risk. Ingram is very talented, and he does represent the best chance to fill Smith’s mold.
8. Miami Dolphins – Quinton Coples, DE, North Carolina
A half decade of questionable choices has left the dolphins with some needs, including the hole they have under center. After not landing the franchise QB they promised during free agency, I had them projected to choose Tannehill. Sherman will push to add his former signal caller from TAMU, and Riley Reiff will get some real consideration too, but in the end, the allure of Coples will be too much. He has the best upside of any pass rusher in this class, and the Phins need to be able to get after the opposing QB. Garrard and Moore will hold down the fort for a year or two while Miami grooms a replacement who they select later in this draft.
9. Carolina Panthers – Dontari Poe, DT, Memphins
The Panthers have been very quiet in the early part of free agency. It seems that Ron Rivera and company will look to the draft to try and fill their needs. Both WR and CB are also significant holes, but with Blackmon and Claiborne off the board, Poe will be the choice at DT. If his combine performance is indicative of a revitalized player, Poe could be a beast. If it was simply the case of a work-out warrior showing off, he could be a bust.
10. Buffalo Bills – Riley Reiff, OT, Iowa
The more I think about it, the more I like what the Bills defensive front is going to look like. With Super Mario now in the fold, the whole defense will look better. Another outside linebacker is still a need, and as such Courtney Upshaw from Alabama will garner some discussion. After the debate however, GM Buddy Nix will make Reiff his choice. Adding someone who can potentially anchor the front is important if Ryan Fitzpatrick, Fred Jackson, and the rest of the Bills offense is going to succeed. Reiff will hopefully be that guy for this team.
11. Kansas City Chiefs – Luke Kuechly, ILB, Boston College
Coming into last week, the two biggest needs for KC were at RT and TE. Both have been filled already with the additions of Eric Winston, and Kevin Boss. Brandon Carr left town for Dallas, and this makes CB their top priority now, but with a need at ILB, and the skills of Kuechly, KC will happily make this pick. Kuechly is a tackling machine, and he brings a fantastic work ethic with him. He will be very popular both on the field and in the locker room, and KC is a team on the move.
12. Seattle Seahawks –David DeCastro, OG, Stanford
After adding Matt Flynn, the Seahwks will no longer be tempted to reach for a QB here. DE is still their biggest need, but Guard became an issue once the team released Robet Gallery. Considering how much DeCastro has impressed everyone he has performed for this offseason, and his history of keeping a prized QB upright, the Seahawks will jump at the opportunity to add DeCastro to help protect Flynn.
13. Arizona Cardinals – Courtney Upshaw, OLB, Alabama
Arizona is a team stuck in between. They are better than bad, but they still have too many holes to be good. One of the most significant holes is at linebacker, and Upshaw is the top player remaining at the position. He plays better than he measures, and that has impacted his stock a bit in the eyes of some teams. If the Cards pull the trigger on Upshaw though, they will be getting a good football player, who despite some questionable measurables, will make this team better.
14. Dallas Cowboys – Mark Barron, S, Alabama
Last year the Cowboys secondary was a real liability. They clearly noticed that, and have been aggressive this offseason in trying to reshape this unit. They parted with longtime corner Terrance Newman, and they added playmaker Brandon Carr and Brodney Pool to replace him. Mark Barron will be the final addition to this group. He has the potential to be a great safety in the league. Not only does he have the on-field skills, but his leadership will be valuable in the Dallas locker room too. Flexible offensive lineman, Cordy Glenn will get some consideration too, but Barron will make the bigger impact, and Jerry Jones loves to make a splash.
15. Philadelphia Eagles – Fletcher Cox, DT, Mississippi State
The Eagles were a big disappointment last year, and now they have to put up wins, or there will be wholesale changes. They need some help at linebacker, both inside and out. Trading for Demeco Ryan was a steal, and there are no outside backers worth reaching for here. Instead, the team will look to firm up the middle of the front by adding Cox. Paired with Cullen Jenkins, they could make for a formidable front for opponents to run against, and open up opportunities for a guy like Ryan to make plays.
16. New York Jets – Jonathan Martin, OT, Stanford
After having landed Leron Landry at safety this offseason, the Jets have addressed one of their two most glaring needs. Now, GM Tannenbaum can focus on keeping their newly extended QB, and the most popular backup EVER performing under center. Jonathan Martin is the best prospect remaining in a position to do just that, and I think they need to make this pick here. Adding Martin to a line that already includes Da’Brick and Mangold could turn this unit into a strength immediately.
17. Cincinnati Bengals via Oakland – Dre Kirkpatrick, CB, Alabama
Thanks to the Carson Palmer deal, the Bengals have two first rounders to continue to build their franchise. Losing Jonathan Joseph last season hurt, so adding his replacement should be their priority. Thanks to the Cowboys adding of Brandon Carr, Kirkpatrick will slip to them here, and allow them to add the second best corner in the draft. Janoris Jenkins will be a consideration too, but in the end Kirkpatrick will be the safer pick.
18. San Diego Chargers – Janoris Jenkins, CB, North Alabama
The Bolts need some help in the interior of that o-line, and after the defection of Jackson to Tampa Bay, they had a hole at wide out too. Notre Dame WR, Michael Floyd would have been a consideration had the team not signed both Robert Meachem and Eddie Royal. Cordy Glenn will also be a consideration, but the talent of Jenkins is too much to pass on. He has huge upside and if not for the questionable character, he would have been pushing Claiborne for top honors at the cornerback position.
19. Chicago Bears – Jerel Worthy, DT, Michigan State
For all of my previous mocks, I pegged the Bears to land Michael Floyd from Notre Dame. Then they went out and added Brandon Marshall by trading with Miami. We can now consider that need filled. Now the Bears will look at o-linemen, corners, and a DT. Of those positions, It will come down to Worthy and Cordy Glenn. Worthy disappointed at the combine, but redeemed himself in a big way at his pro-day. He was very productive during his time in Lansing, and I expect him to bring something to the front seven of this Bears defense.
20. Tennessee Titans – Michael Floyd, WR, Notre Dame
With most of my previous Mocks, I had the Titans targeting a pass rusher with this pick. Recently, the team signed former Raider, Kamerion Wimbley. He may not be a complete DE/OLB, but he can apply pressure. I do not consider him to be the answer to that need, but he can be enough of an answer to allow Tennessee to look at other options with this pick. After losing Kenny Britt to injury last year, the Titans offense was hobbled. Having another option is a necessity to help this team grow, and Floyd is the best option still on the board. He has good hands, runs good routes, and showed in college he can take over games.
21. Cincinnati Bengals – Cordy Glenn, OG, Georgia
Up until this week, I had expected that the Bengals would use this pick to secure a replacement to Cedric Benson in their backfield. Then the team went out and added Benjarvus Green Ellis. He will serve as the team’s primary back, and I’d expect that they will look to add another option, albeit later in the draft. Now they can focus on getting their young QB some better protection up front by adding the most versatile lineman in the draft. Glenn can line up anywhere on the line, although I do project him highest at guard. Coming away from round 1 with both Kirkpatrick and Glenn will make the Bengals front office quite happy.
22. Cleveland Browns via Atlanta – Ryan Tannehill, QB, TAMU
Oh the fortunes of the draft. After considering reaching at four to pick Tannehill, the Browns will find themselves ecstatic at the prospects of landing him at 22. It appears that the team is not sold on Colt McCoy as their future at QB, and grabbing Tannehill here to come in to compete will give the team two young QBs to develop. The one that proves most successful, will get the snaps. The other can be a quality backup or trade bait for the organization.
23. Detroit Lions – Dont’a Hightower, LB, Alabama
In my opinion, corner is the biggest need for this team. This year’s class of corners is deep, but not top heavy. Instead of reaching slightly for the next best corner in Stephon Gilmore, I expect the Detroit front office to instead work the middle of that defense and add Hightower. He is another player who has had a strong offseason and is on the rise. He will be a good addition, both for his playing and leadership skills. With him on this defense and some corner help in a later round, Detroit may be the real deal.
24. Pittsburgh Steelers – David Wilson, RB, Pittsburgh
This has been a tough offseason thus far for the Steelers. First the team parts ways with some key veterans, including James Farrior and Aaron Smith, and then they have Hines Ward retire. Now they learn that starting RB, Rashard Mendenhall will likely miss all of next year, and possibly may not ever take another handoff for them. Whereas Isaac Redmond is good, he is better in a complimentary role. Jonathan Dwyer hasn’t shown that he is even good enough to be a backup, and thus RB becomes their most immediate need. Highly productive at Va Tech, the Steelers will hope Wilson can come in and provide the running game a boost it would most certainly lack with Mendenhall’s absence. They still need to add a linebacker, corner, and some o-line help, but that will have to wait until later rounds.
25. Denver Broncos – Michael Brockers, DT, LSU
Manning is in the fold, Tebow is in New York, and now they have give Peyton some weapons to play with too. Andre Caldwell, Jacob Tamme, and Joel Dressen have all come to town, and although none of these guys will knock your socks off, they are all serviceable. This will preclude the team from taking the Stanford TE, Fleener, as previously projected, and instead allow them to continue to build that defense. Von Miller was a sensation last season, and with a little help the defense could be very good. Brockers is a boom-or-bust type prospect, but he currently maintains a tentative hold on the fourth position amongst d-tackles on my board. If he pans out, this will be great for Denver.
26. Houston Texans – Kendall Wright, WR, Baylor
When the Texans come on the clock, it will come down to a decision between Penn State DT, Devon Still, and Kendall Wright, the wide out from Baylor. At the combine Wright was a disappointment, but he showed at Baylor’s pro-day that RG3 isn’t the only talent this school boasts. Wright has great speed, and if he can provide Matt Schaub another option to Andre Johnson, this offense, which is already good, can be frightening. The Texans are becoming a chic pick from the AFC this year, and adding Wright will give them the substance to back it up.
27. New England Patriots via New Orleans – Andre Branch, DE, Clemson
Every year the Pats field an excellent ball club, and I think it is because of a combination of having this generation’s best coach on the side line, and all of the draft day gymnastics this team always seem to execute. Two more first round picks for the Pats will allow for New England to continue to re-stock rather than rebuild. With needs at a few positions the Pats will carefully examine South Carolina’s Stephon Gilmore, and North Carolina’s Zach Brown. At the end of the day however, New England chooses based on overall value, and Andre Branch is a better overall value than either of the other two. He can line up with his hand in the dirt, and he has the size to hold the end in a 3-4. He also has speed though, so he could get after opposing QBs too, and that is why I expect them to choose him here. With so many other selections still to come, they will have more than enough time to address all of their needs.
28. Green Bay Packers – Whitney Mercillus, DE, Illinois
The Packers really have very few weaknesses, so they can really go in any direction with this pick. Despite being eliminated from the playoffs early, I still feel Green Bay is the best team in the league. The defense was a little disappointing at times last year mainly in their secondary. Finding someone to put pressure on opposing signal caller, other than Clay Mathews will be one of the fastest ways to make this secondary look better. Again, Stephon Gilmore will be of consideration, but if Whitney can play the way he did during his senior season with the Illini, Green Bay will have made the right choice.
29. Baltimore Ravens – Peter Konz, C, Wisconsin
Baltimore is another very good team without too many pressing needs. Unfortunately they have some key players who are getting a bit long in the tooth (Lewis, Reed, Birk) that they need to start to think about replacing. Birk is coming back for what most expect to be his final season. Drafting the best center in this year’s class would be a wise investment in this team’s future.
30. San Francisco 49ers – Alshon Jeffery, WR, South Carrolina
San Fran has now entered damage control mode, after making a failed play for Manning. Alex Smith’s feelings have been hurt, and they really need for him to return now. Giving him some new toys may help ease those hurt feelings. The team has added Randy Moss and Mario Manningham, but I am not sold on either one of those guys being a long-term answer as a true 1. Crabtree has talent but hasn’t put it together. I think choosing Jeffery is the smartest move. He has all of the skills you want, and really was a great target in the college game.
31. New England Patriots – Lamar Miller, RB, Miami
I still have confidence that the Pats will eventually deal this pick, but assuming they keep it, I see them choosing Miller here. With the law firm having moved on to Cincinnati, the team will need to address its offensive backfield. Miller is an exciting talent who could help this run game and keep the Pats as the team to beat in the AFC East.
32. New York Giants – Coby Fleener, TE, Stanford
The Giants are a tough team to peg because more than anyone they really do stick to the best player available philosophy. After running a 4.4 at his pro-day, Fleener is the best player still available. It doesn’t hurt that the G-men have a need at TE, and that Martellus Bennet has proven to be somewhat unreliable. Going into next season with this pair of TE options will certainly make the younger Manning happy.
33. St Louis Rams – Zach Brown, OLB, North Carolina
34. Indianapolis Colts – Ronnell Lewis, OLB, Oklahoma
35. Minnesota Vikings – Stephon Gilmore, CB, South Carolina
36. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Levonte David, LB, Nebraska
37. Cleveland Browns – Stephen Hill, WR, Georgia Tech
38. Jacksonville Jaguars – Harrison Smith, S, Notre Dame
39. St Louis Rams via Washington – Mike Adams, OT, Ohio State
40. Carolina Panthers – Alfonso Denard, CB, Nebraska
41. Buffalo Bills – Travis Lewis, OLB, Oklahoma
42. Miami Dolphins – Mohamed Sanu, WR, Rutgers
43. Seattle Seahawks – Nick Perry, DE, USC
44. Kansas City Chiefs – Jayron Hosley, CB, Virginia Tech
45. Dallas Cowboys – Vinny Curry, DE, Marshall
46. Philadelphia Eagles – Shea McClellin, LB, Boise State
47. New York Jets – Chandler Jones, DE, Syracuse
48. New England Patriots via Oakland – Antonio Allen, S, South Carolina
49. San Diego Chargers – Kevin Zeitler, G, Wisconsin
50. Chicago Bears – Kelechi Osmele, OG, Iowa State
51. Philadelphia Eagles via Arizona – David Molk, C, Michigan
52. Tennessee Titans – Chase Minnefield, CB, Minnesota
53. Cincinnati Bengals – Devon Still, DT, Penn State
54. Detroit Lions – Ruben Randall, WR, LSU
55. Atlanta Falcons – Brandon Washington, OG, Miami
56. Pittsburgh Steelers – Mychal Kendrick, LB, California
57. Denver Broncos – Brandon Weeden, QB, Oklahoma State
58. Houston Texans – Kendall Reyes, DT, Connecticut
59. New Orleans Saints – Selection Forfeited Due to Bountygate
60. Green Bay Packers – Trumaine Johnson, CB, Montana
61. Baltimore Ravens – Doug Martin, RB, Boise State
62. San Francisco 49ers – Casey Heyward, CB, Vanderbilt
63. New England Patriots – Amini Silatolu, OG, Midwestern State
64. New York Giants – Chris Polk, RB, Washington
65. Indianapolis Colts – Dewayne Allen, TE, Clemson
66. St Louis Rams – Nick Foles, QB, Arizona
67. Minnesota Vikings – Chris Owusu, WR, Stanford
68. Cleveland Browns – George Lloka, S, Boise State
69. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Bobbie Massey, OT, Ole Miss
70. Washington Redskins – Phillip Blake, C, Baylor
71. Jacksonville Jaguars – Bruce Irvin, LB, West Virginia
72. Buffalo Bills – Sean Spence, LB, Miami
73. Miami Dolphins – Zebrie Sanders, OT, Florida State
74. Chicago Bears via Carolina – Josh Robinson, CB, Central Florida
75. Kansas City Cheifs – Brock Osweiler, QB, Arizona State
76. Seattle Seahawks – Keenan Robinson, LB, Texas
77. Philadelphia Eagles – Andrew Datko, OT, Florida State
78. New York Jets – Nick Toon, WR, Wisconsin
79. San Diego Chargers – Jared Crick, DE, Nebraska
80. Miami Dolphins via Chicago – Kirk Cousins, QB, Michigan State
81. Arizona Cardinals – Brandon Thompson, DT, Clemson
82. Dallas Cowboys – Mike Brewster, C, Ohio State
83. Tennessee Titans – Brandon Taylor, S, LSU
84. Cincinnati Bengals – LeMichael James, RB, Oregon
85. Atlanta Falcons – Orson Charles, TE, Georgia
86. Detroit Lions – Jamell Fleming, CB, Oklahoma
87. Pittsburgh Steelers – Leonard Johnson, CB, Iowa State
88. Denver Broncos – Joe Adams, WR, Arkansas
89. Houston Texans – Markelle Martin, S, Oklahoma State
90. New Orleans Saints – Mike Martin, DT, Michigan
91. Green Bay Packers – Ronnie Hillman, RB, San Diego State
92. Baltimore Ravens – Phillip Thomas, S, Syracuse
93. San Francisco 49ers – Billy Winn, DE, Boise State
94. New England Patriots – Coryelle Judie, CB, TAMU
95. New York Giants – Bobby Wagner, OLB, Utah State
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