2013 Outlook - Virginia

It has been some time since the fate of a program lied so heavily on an NCAA eligibility decision.  This decision could have as much as a 3 win swing for Mike London's Virginia Cavaliers.

If the NCAA allows for Alabama transfer QB, Phillips Sims to become immediately eligible to play, the 2013 Cavaliers could win some games.  If they don't, that leaves the offense in the hands of JR Michael Rocco for one more year.  Rocco is decent, but he is nothing more than that.  He has to become more consistent, and that comes with time.  Knowing his days as a starter are numbered though could have a dramatic impact on his performance, in either direction.  The powerful yet small, Perry Jones will line up as the primary ball carrier for his SR campaign.  He could put up some yards this year.  He flirted with the thousand yard barrier, and I fully expect him to cross it this year.  The receiving corp is a bit of a question mark though.  Sometimes, the receivers can really make the QB.  Other times, it is the other way around.  If Sims is at QB, the receivers will look better than they are.  With Rocco under center, they could be exposed.  The o-line for Virginia is without any question the biggest strength of this offense.  SR OT Oday Aboushi is currently projecting as a first round selection in next year's draft, and his cohort, JR OT Morgan Moses, could be a first round talent for the 2014 draft if he stays his path.  These guys will give whomever is under center their best chance to succeed.

In recent years, this team has had some nice talent, especially in the secondary. Unfortunately, both Ras-I Dowling and Chase Minnefield have moved on, but the cupboard has not been left bare.  Upfront, the team is going to have to figure out how to replace Matt Conrath.  After moving inside, he became a force in the ACC.  Now, UVA will have to find someone to replace his presence and penetration ability.  I'm not sure any of the guys projected to start on this defensive front have that skill set.  Steve Greer returns to the middle of the linebacking corp, and he will bring the right attitude and good leadership with him.  He can tackle anything that moves, and considering the rest of the front seven, he may have to.  The secondary has SO CB Demetrious Nicholson returning.  He was a standout FR last year, but he benefited from having Chase Minnefield lined up on the other side.  He has talent, but can he emerge as a true number 1 corner is the question.

Even if Sims becomes eligible for this season, I still think Virginia will struggle to match last year's 8 wins.  They have some nice pieces, but also some big question marks.  Without Sims, I think UVA may be in for a long season.