2013 Outlook - West Virginia

Dana Holgorsen left his old stomping grounds, the Big 12, last season when he became the new HC at West Virginia.  Now he returns to the conference where he built his reputation, as the Mountaineers leave the Big East for the pastures of the Big 12.  The question is, how will this high powered, productive offence fair in a conference with better competition?



Last season, as a JR, QB Geno Smith set the Big East record for passing yards, while completing 66% of his attempts.  As staggering as that is, it is even more incredible to think that it happened in his first year in Holgorsen's offense.  Now Smith is a year more experienced and has had more time to pick up the system, the sky is the limit in terms of productivity.  The defenses of the Big 12 will likely be more stingy than the competition they faced in the Big East last year, but I still think his number can improve.  This is especially true when you consider the talent of the weapons he will be throwing to.  Last year, both WRs Tavon Austin and Stedman Bailey broke the thousand yard receiving barrier.  2013 will be their second year in Holgorsen's offense too, and I expect for them to have increased production this year as well.  Even JR Ivan McCartney could get in on the action this year.  Although it seems far fetched, it is possible that all three of these guys pick up more than 1000 yards this season.  The running back situation at West Virginia is a little different.  Currently, SO Dustin Garrison is slated to be the primary back.  Garrison is quick, and he has good hands out of the backfield, but he is very, very small.  At only 166 lbs, he is always one hit away from his season coming to an end, and he will need to add size and strength if he is to survive.  Up front, the Mountaineers seem primed to reverse their downward trend they have been on for the last 5 seasons.  Although I am not overly impressed with either of the tackles, I really like all three projected starters on the interior of this line.  These three seniors are all very strong, and if OG Josh Jenkins can stay healthy, they should be a big asset to this team.

Defensively, I think this team may be down a notch or two from a year ago.  Last season, the Mountaineers produced an excellent pass rush, courtesy of Bruce Irvin and Julian Miller.  This year both are gone.  This leaves the most experienced pass rusher as JR DE Will Clarke, who amassed two whole sacks a year ago.  The linebackers will look different in 2013 too.  The team is transitioning from a 3-3-5 to a 3-4, which will result in SR Terrence Garvin moving from S into a OLB position.  Garvin is the team's best defender, and he should be able to excel in his new role.  West Virginia will also need for SR Josh Francis to step up his play, as he has not lived up to expectations since transferring from JUCO last year.  In the secondary, the Mountaineers always seem to play well as a group.  The unit lacks any true standouts, but the combination of  the 3 JRs and 1 SR puts them on par with last year's group in terms of starting experience.  I expect this team to be fundamentally sound as typical, and to put up some decent output.

West Virginia is a good team with a great offense, for whom life has gotten more difficult.  The level of competition has shifted, with games against Oklahoma, OK State, Texas, Baylor, and Texas Tech replacing games against Pittsburgh, Louisville, South Florida, Syracuse and Cincinnati.  Dana Holgorsen is one of the best young minds in college football, and his team will score points, but unless they can stop the other side, I expect to see the win total drop from a year ago as the team finds itself in a bunch of shootouts.