Friday, July 20, 2012

2013 Outlook - Boise State





I recently heard a question posed by a college football expert, "Other than Nick Saban and Urban Meyer, which current head coach would you like to have to build your college program with?"  Many folks comment on names like Bob Stoops, or Chip Kelly.  I love both of those guys, but my first choice (including Saban and Meyer) would be Chris Petersen.  No coach in football, college or pro, has a better track record of doing more with less.  In 6 years at Boise State, Petersen has compiled a 73-6 record!  No, I did not make a mistake.  He has won 73 games, while only losing 6.  Sure, the question will be asked, who have they played? But the bottom line is that you can only beat who they put in front of you, and he does it.  How about this year?  Will they put up another 10+ win season in their final year before moving over to the Big East?



4 year starter Kellen Moore has left the program with more wins that any QB in the history of college football.  Now for the first time in a long while, there will be someone new under center.  JR Joe Southwick looks to be that guy.  In his two years as Moore's backup Southwick has played sparingly, but when he has played, he has looked good.  Of course it is much easier to look good when the opposing defense has not prepared for you.  I expect Southwick to become a productive QB for Petersen, but just not to the level of Moore.  That would be unfair to expect of anyone.  At RB, Doug Martin has also graduated onto the NFL, leaving SR DJ Harper slated as the primary ball carrier.  Harper is good, and should be productive this year, but again, I see a step backwards from last year's team.  At receiver, SO Matt Miller and JR Geraldo Boldewijn will be the two primary targets.  Miller really has a bright future, and Boldewijn should make a very nice second option.  Up front, the team lost some talent, including OT Nate Potter and C Thomas Byrd, but they return some very good players too.  JR OT Charles Leno should easily earn All-Conference honors and will get some serious consideration for All-American honors too.  SR OG Joe Kellogg will also earn All-Conference honors this year as well.

As much as the team lost offensively this year, they lost even more defensively.  Last year the team was loaded with studs up front, including draft picks Shea McClellin, Tyrone Crawford, and Billy Winn.  There are some talented guys left in Boise to man the defensive front, but there is little doubt in my mind the unit will take a collective step backwards.  SO JUCO transfer Demarcus Lawrence who will be lining up at DE is the most likely candidate to become the front's next star.  At linebacker, the Broncos are also going to be inexperienced.  Highly touted MLB Blake Renaud is looking poised for a breakout season this year as a SO, which would be a welcome site for Petersen and his staff.  The secondary which was hurt by injuries a year ago also lost some talent, but some of it returns, making this the most experienced unit on this defense.  SR CB Jamar Taylor return from his injury and he should be quite good.

There is no doubt in my mind that this version of the Boise State Broncos will not be as good as last year's team, but the will be exceptionally well coached, and should still dominate the Mountain West.  Next year they will take a step up in competition, but I think they will be well positioned to immediately challenge for the Big East title.

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