The Senior Bowl is in the books, and the combine invitations have been issued. There is a whole lot of changes in this mock, starting with the top overall pick. Of course combine results as well as individual workouts, and the early parts of free agency will all effect this projection, but as of now...
1. St Louis Rams – Ndamukong Suh, DT, Nebraska
The Rams need a QB if they are going to return to respectability, but the grades of Bradford and Clausen aren't worthy of the first overall pick. Suh on the other hand is. He is as pro ready as they come, and will immediately plug holes in the middle of the defensive front. I still think the Rams would be better of though, trading down and getting multiple assets to help.
2. Detroit Lions – Gerald McCoy, DT, Oklahoma
McCoy has Warren Sapp like potential. He is the best pass rushing tackle in this class. He is the kind of player that will drive opposing o-line coaches crazy. The Lions are slowly improving, and they made a big investment in their future on offense with Stafford last year. Now they can make a similar commitment to their defense with McCoy.
3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Eric Berry, S, Tennessee
3
overall is normally too high to look at a safety. However, Eric Berry
is not a normal safety and the safety position has changed. Guys like
Reed, Sanders, and Polomalu are changing how defense is played in the
NFL, and the Bucs need help in the secondary badly. No doubt that
current HC Raheem Morris has spoken to his former boss Monte Kiffin all
about Berry (Kiffin coached Berry this past season at Tennessee), and I
expect the Bucs to pull the trigger and acquire the most talented
athlete on the board.
4. Washington Redskins – Russell Okung, OT, Oklahoma State
Shannahan and the Skins still have a need at QB and both Bradford and Clausen will get discussion, but in the end, logic will rule, and Washington will make the correct choice and address their highly depleted offensive line. Okung is still holding onto the top grade amongst the o-linemen, although barely, and he can fill an immediate need at tackle for Washington.
5. Kansas City Chiefs – Joe Haden, CB, Florida
This
years draft lacks top end talent at corner, except for Florida’s Joe
Haden. He has all the potential to be a shut down corner, and Todd
Haley and Scott Pioli need to get new DC Romeo Crennell some weapons.
Haden should be the team’s selection, as he could be the new Asante
Samuel for Patriots West.
6. Seattle Seahawks – Anthony Davis, OT, Rutgers
During my previous Mock, I projected the Seahawks nabbing Davis with their second pick of the first round, at 14. Things change though. Davis has been on a huge rise, and with Okung coming off the board with the last pick, the Hawks will not wait to address their largest need. Davis will be picked due to his strong upside, and the expected immediate contribution he can make to this team. Bradford and Clausen will also get some consideration with this choice too.
7. Cleveland Browns – Derrick Morgan, DE, Georgia Tech
Morgan
is versatile and can bring some punch to a defense. He can pressure
the QB from the edge, and he can drop into coverage when necessary
too. New Browns Czar Holmgren will choose this guy because of all the
options he will have with him on the defensive side of the ball.
8. Oakland Raiders – Trent Williams, OT, Oklahoma
Last
year the Raiders blew their first rounder on a marginal talent in
Heyward-Bey with Crabtree still on the board. Maybe this year will be
different. The team has a lot invested in skill guys in their
backfield (read, Russell and McFadden). They need to keep opposing
defenses off them. With Okung and Davis already gone, Oakland will not risk losing out on an impact lineman, so they will choose the tackle from Oklahoma.
9. Buffalo Bills – Sam Bradford, QB, Oklahoma
The Bills have needs on their offensive front, and with the run on tackles their will be some intense discussion here. In the end however, the Bills will end the Trent Edwards error, um I mean era, by selecting Sam Bradford. With recent reports from Dr James Andrews that Bradford is ahead of schedule on his return Bradford has jumped Clausen on my board, and the Bills will choose this pro-ready QB with the 9th overall selection.
10. Jacksonville Jaguars – Rolando McClain, LB, Alabama
The
Jags need to play better if Del Rio has any chance of saving his job
beyond this season. When Jack played he was an impact inside
linebacker, and he knows personally what that can do for a defense and
subsequently a team. McClain is a tackling machine, and there is no
reason to think he won’t have a huge impact at the pro level. The Jags
could be getting their own version of Patrick Willis with this
selection.
11. Denver Broncos via Chicago Bears – Jason Pierre Paul, DE, South Florida
Thanks
to dealing Cutler, the Broncos are in a great position in this draft.
Last season the team struggled off the edge with McBean and Peterson as
their starters. Pierre Paul is raw, but has huge upside. He has
freakish athleticism and could be another Javon Kearse if he continues
to develop. He benefited from playing across from a big reputation in
George Selvie, so becoming the man will be a different view for Pierre
Paul, but he has all the upside for Denver to think he can get it done.
12. Miami Dolphins – Dez Bryant, WR, Oklahoma State
The
Phins will be in the market for linebackers this offseason, and if
McClain would fall to them here I’d expect them to pull the trigger.
Bt since we have him off the board, I expect them to look to their
other big need, wide out. Henne needs some weapons to be more
dangerous, and Bryant is exactly that. He has awesome talent and if he
can prove his suspension was a result of a bad choice not bad character
the dolphins will pick him here.
13. San Francisco 49ers – Bryan Bulaga, OT, Iowa
The
Niners are one of the two teams in the first round with multiple selections. There are a few directions the team cold go with this pick. Because Clausen is still available, he will get some discussion here. So will Texas Safety, Earl Thomas. In the end though the run on tackles will prompt the Niners to jump on the Iowa lineman Bulaga. He is talented, and has a mean streak which will help him upgrade the San Fran line immediately.
14. Seattle Seahawks via Denver – Jimmy Clausen, QB, Notre Dame
Since they addressed their biggest need with their first selection, the Hawks will have some flexibility with this choice. It will come down to two players. Tennessee's Dan Williams is flying up boards because he is looking like a difference maker on the defensive front. In the end however, the Hawks need for an heir to Hasslebeck at the helm will lead them to snap up the over hyped Notre Dame signal caller, Clausen with this pick.
15. New York Giants – Dan Williams, DT, Tennessee
The
Giants will be the beneficiaries of Clausen's fall. Because Seattle will jump at the previous selection, Williams becomes available to NY here. The G-men need help at linebacker, but they also need help up the middle of their defense. Williams has excellent potential and his rise up draft boards will make him irresistible to the Giants here at 15.
16. Tennessee Titans – Carlos Dunlap, DE, Florida
There is little question about the talent that Carlos Dunlap is. He has all of the technical tools you want in a DE, and he has so much athleticism it is scary. Unfortunately, there are character questions surrounding this guy. At the end of the day however, the Titans will make this selection because they need a presence like Dunlap in their front seven.
17. San Francisco 49ers –Earl Thomas, S, Texas
As I mentioned earlier, the Niners will take a look at Thomas with their earlier selection. In this scenario, their patients pays dividends as Thomas falls to them here. His ball skills and overall athleticism will make him an attractive option to really add another playmaker to this side of the ball. The additions of Bulaga and Thomas make this team so much more formidable next season, and my new favorites to win the NFC West.
18. Pittsburgh Steelers – Mike Iuptai, G, Idaho
Steelers
football all begins with the play of the front five on the o-line. If
this team is to be successful they need to be able to run the
football. Rashard Mendenhall is a future star, and they need another
big body to pave his way. The team lost a lot when Alan Faneca left for New York, and they need to replace him. Iuptai is a rare interior lineman who could be a true impact player. Guards and Centers don't usually breach the first round, but this kid is deserving.
19. Atlanta Falcons – Kyle Wilson, CB, Boise State
Atlanta
needs to play better defense if they want to compete again. To deal with pass productive teams like New Orleans, they have to be strong at the corners. Kyle Wilson had a great Senior Bowl, and really impressed scouts with his ability to cover, and his breaks on the ball. He has moved to the number one corner spot on my board, which makes him ripe for the Falcons to grab up here at 19.
20. Houston Texans – CJ Spiller, RB, Clemson
The
Texans played musical running backs all season long, and it hurt this
team badly. Slaton has talent, but he needs to spend some time with
Tiki Barber learning to hold on to the football. Moats and the rest of
the platoon are not starting RB material long term. Spiller on the
other hand can be a superstar. He is big enough to hold up in the
pros, and he is fast enough to fit the teams offense. He will be the
kind of back this team needs, and could push the Texans to the next
level.
21. Cincinnati Bengals – Jermaine Gresham, TE, Oklahoma
Another
pick, another Sooner. Gresham is such a mega talent, I had him graded
out as the top TE last year if he had come out. This year is no
different. He can do everything you want a tight end to do, and
Cincinnati needs another difference maker to help Carson Palmer out.
The Bengals made great strides this season, despite have an emotionally
difficult season. Imagine the strides next season with Gresham on
board.
22. New England Patriots – Jahvid Best, RB, California
New
England’s offense was exposed a little this year. Brady showed he is
healed, but teams are learning that if you pressure him, and play up on
his wide outs, you can beat New England. They need a running game to
help them back to prominence, and Best is the best running back still
on the board. Fred Taylor is no longer a difference maker, so Best can
step in and provide the spark and the running threat this team needs.
23. Green Bay Packers – Taylor Mayes, S, USC
Green
Bay had a nice bounce back season, and Aaron Rodgers has emerged as a
prime playmaker like the team had hoped when they drafted him to
replace Favre. To take the next step forward this team needs to
provide Rodgers with a playmaker at wide out, and this is why a guy like Arellius Benn will get discussed. In the end however,
the team will go with Taylor Mayes. Mayes is just too talented to pass
up, and with the Green Bay secondary aging, he is exactly the type of
player they need in the fold.
24. Philadelphia Eagles – Sergio Kindle, LB, Texas
Every year, some players slip on draft day more as a result of other players rise then anything they have done. Sergio Kindle is one of those guys in this mock. He showed in the National Title game how impactful he can be, both with his hand in the dirt, and from a stand position. He is a high energy player with great speed, and acceleration. A team like the Eagles could use this type of playmaker in their defense again, and therefore I see this as their selection.
25. Baltimore Ravens – Arrelious Benn, WR, Illinois
There
is little doubt in anyone’s mind that Baltimore needs a primary target
to throw to. The signing of Donte Stallworth was nice, but he is not a number one type guy. Arrelious Benn has that kind of potential. I think if he had a QB who could get him the ball at Illinois, he could have pushed Bryant for the top WR in this class. Bottom line, Benn will quickly become Flaco's favorite target, and this tandem could push Baltimore back into the AFC elite.
26. Arizona Cardinals – Brandon Graham, DE/LB, Michigan
Despite the retirement of Kurt Warner, the Cards primary need will be on the defensive side of the ball. Bert Berry has also called it a career, and Karlos Dansby looks poised to take his game elsewhere next season. Brandon Graham is a tweener type player who could play end in a 4-3, or a linebacker in a 3-4. This versatility will make him valuable to an Arizona franchise who has needs at both spots right now.
27. Dallas Cowboys – Brian Price, DT, UCLA
The
Cowboys have a roster to get excited about, yet they still seem to
struggle to put the pieces together to turn this team into a
championship team. The Boys have to put beef up in the middle of that
defensive front, and Brian Price is just the guy to help them do it.
If he can plug some holes for this team, it could help Dallas become
more stout against the run, and subsequently, a more dominant team.
28. San Diego Chargers – Jonathan Dwyer, RB, Georgia Tech
The
Chargers are in a very unfamiliar situation. They enter this offseason
with a need a running back. It seems that Tomlinson may be at the end
of his hall-of-fame career, and although Sproles is quick, he is a
better change of pace back than primary ball carrier. Dwyer is shifty,
and he brings a great nose for holes to the pro game. He can find the
seam, and he makes fairly quick decisions, and cuts making him a
seemingly good replacement for LT.
29. New York Jets – Damian Williams, WR, USC
USC
wide outs have gotten a rep for becoming pro busts recently. Where as
you can understand why that may be, I think Williams could be
different. This kid shows more promise to me that either predecessor
Williams, or Jarrett. I think the Jets definitely need a prime time
target for Sanchez, since I don’t expect them to bring back Edwards,
and who better than his college teammate. This pair already knows each
other, so the chemistry should already be in place for this to be a
dynamic combination for the future.
30. Minnesota Vikings – Devin McCourty, CB, Rutgers
The
weakness that the Vikes have shown this season has been in their
secondary. Cedric Griffin has not become a stud yet, and Winfield may
be at the end of his road. Rutgers standout Devin McCourty benefited from spending one more year in school, and unlike his twin brother Jason who was taken last season in the 6th round by the Titans, Devin has pushed his way into the late end of the first round. Not only can this kid cover, but he can return kicks too.
31. Indianapolis Colts – Jared Odrick, DT, Penn State
As long as Peyton Manning lines up under center in Indy, this offense will continue to find ways to score. The defense is under rated, but still lacks presence in the middle of the line. Jared Odrick is a tackle moving up draft boards right now, and with a late first/early second round grade, he makes sense for Indy. If he can occupy blockers up front the backers should be able to make more plays, and the very good ends on this team can put even more pressure on opposing QBs.
32. New Orleans Saints –Navarro Bowman, LB, Penn State
To close out round one, we have the Super Bowl champion, New Orleans Saints. Gosh, that still feel strange to type. Greg Williams has solidified himself in my mind as the pre-eminent defensive football mind currently in the NFL. He turned this defense into the games most under rated (just ask Peyton Manning). Despite this achievement, the defense could still use the addition of some talent in their linebacking corps. Bowman is a real good talent who has terrific upside. He also comes from a school who knows how to grow linebackers, and thus makes a good addition to the defending World Champs.
Arguably, no player helped themselves more with their combine performance than Tate. As many of you will remember I ripped Tate in a mock draft a few months back, but he sure showed up to play in Indy. Top end speed was a big concern for teams when looking at the Notre Dame Wideout prior to the combine. He ran well in Indy though, and quelled concerns for a lot of teams. Many present said tate looked fluid in and out of his break, and used his hands well too. Coming into Indy, Tate held a late second / early third round grade in my book. Now, he is an early two, maybe even a late first rounder.
When a guy is 316 pounds, you don't expect chiseled, but when Campbell showed up in Indy, that is exactly what they saw. This guy then went on to run a 4.85 in the 40, leap a 32" vertical, and pound out 34 reps on the bench. By the end of his time at the combine Campbell had so impressed with his physical tools, that teams will no doubt overlook some of his game tape on draft day. Campbell was a fringe first round talent coming into the combine. Now he holds a solid round 1 grade from me.
Those of you who follow Football Futures know that I think highly of Jahvid Best. I believe he has all of the tools necessary to become a "factor back" in the NFL. Many "experts" however disagree with me, grading him out as a second round selection. Best worked out very well in Indy, and impressed with his speed, footwork, breaks, and hands this week. He was only confirming what I already knew. This kid belongs in the first round in April. If he stays healthy at the next level he will be a gem.
As the combine approached, the hype surrounding Morgan's top competitor, South Florida's Jason Pierre Paul, was reaching a fever pitch. With immense upside, JPP had leaped Morgan as the top DE on most draft boards. Then came Indy. Morgan looked great at the combine, but more importantly, showcased the attribute that has him back in the top slot on my board, his polish. The Morgan/Pierre Paul debate is starting to remind me of the Manning/Leaf saga from years ago. On one hand we have a guy with immense physical skills and raw talent. He bubbles over with upside. On the other hand, you have an NFL ready option, who may not have quite the same ceiling. Now, I am not trying to say JPP will flame out ala Ryan Leaf, but I do think the polish showed by Morgan makes him a safer bet next month.
After Mobile, Tim Tebow had his stock plummet. He needed a great combine to reclaim some spotlight, and that is exactly what he did, and he did it without throwing a single pass. The former Gator is currently undergoing a rework of his maligned throwing motion, and thus he wasn't ready to toss the ball in Indy, but he did very well in his measurables, including a QB best performance in the vertical jump. He also did an outstanding job of selling himself, his knowledge, and his dedication to the game during his interviews. Tim is still pushing to be a QB at the next level, but his performance this weekend eased concerns about his ability to transition to another position should the need arise down the road. Tebow jumped from a fourth rounder in my book, to a fringe second rounder now.
As many of you will recall, Griffen fell out of my first round mock this past month. Mostly this was because I felt like Griffen was a tweener at the next level, and I was not convinced that he could hold up as a linebacker in space. Well I now color myself corrected. Griffen was dynamite in Indy erasing any concerns that I had about his ability to play the outside in a 3 man front scheme. His speed and strength were just what I would like to see from a 3-4 backer, and with the right coaching, I see him succeeding on Sundays.
Like Griffen, my concerns about Hughes surrounded his ability to step outside at the next level. As my most loyal followers will recall, at the start of the college football season, I had a lot of good things to say about Hughes. Also just like Griffen, Hughes performance in Indy erased any concerns I have about his ability to play the OLB in a 3-4 at the next level. He showed excellent speed and lateral quickness during his drills, and I now have Hughes carrying a solid second round grade heading into Pro-Days.
As many of you recall, Dwyer was a late first round selection in some of my previous mocks, but after this performance, Dwyer will be lucky to be picked in the top 60 now. Not only were his measurables lower than expected, but he simply looked overwhelmed while running drills. This does not bode well for the former Yellow Jacket. Combine this with the good performances put in by the RB class as a whole, and now Dwyer has fallen from battling for the #2 RB position with Best to a tenuous #6 ranking behind Fresno State's Ryan Mathews, Heisman runner-up Toby Gerhart, and Tennessee's fast riser Montario Hardesty.
It is so hard to believe that an impact player like McClain could be falling, but he is. Rolando chose not to work out in Indy, siting a previously undisclosed hamstring injury. Because of the cloak-and-dagger games surrounding this injury, many scouts left Indy wondering if McClain was simply scared of underperforming and opted to sit instead. When guys leave you with questions after the combine, their Pro-Day becomes even more vital, and McClain has landed himself in this grouping now. I still see him as a great addition to any squad, and on my board he has only taken a slight hit.
The thing about Davis that was disappointing was that coming into the combine, he was on a meteoric rise up draft boards. Then he shows up out of shape and sloppy. This is a quick way to end a rise and start to fall. Especially when you take into consideration the depth of the rest of the linemen available in this draft. With guys like Okung, Bulaga, and Williams all looking good, Davis could have really impacted his potential first year earnings with this underwhelming showing this week.
