Sunday, April 29, 2012

Bottom 7





Now that the 2012 Draft is in the books, let take stock of how each of the teams did, putting themselves in better position for the future through this weekend's acquisitions.  It is impossible to tell who really did well, and who really struggled until after we can see what type of finished product these kids become, but based on what me know today, or more accurately, what we think we know today, lets take a look.

I have ranked every selection from this weekend's draft with a grade.  These grades are based on what I project the player's skill at, as compared to the position they were drafted in, taking into account both my perception of team need, and alternatives available when the team picked.  The letter grades for each selection were then converted to a numerical equivalent with an "A" earning 4 points, down to an "F" earning 0 points. Pluses to a letter grade added an extra .3 to the points.  Minuses subtracted an extra .3 from the points.  Each of these scores were averaged together to calculate a team's DPA (Draft Point Average).

In addition, this year I will also share where a team ranked according to NFL.com's player selection rankings.  Prior to the draft, the crew at NFL.com assigned each player a total ranking, which ranges from 0, through 100.  The higher the ranking, the better the player (in their eyes).  I have averaged out the NFL.com player ranking for each team too, and when I review the team, I will share the overall NFL.com average, and where that ranks amongst the rest of the league.

Over the next 6 days, I am going to release my review of each team's performance this weekend, working from the lowest score up to the highest based on my calculated DPA.  So lets get to it starting with the bottom 7.

#32 - Seattle Seahawks     DPA:1.76   NFL.com Avg:61.84   NFL.com Rank:29
     Highest Rated Picks: Rd 6 Pk 11 - Guy Winston, DB, Kentucky

     Lowest Rated Picks: Rd 1 Pk 15 - Bruce Irvin, OLB/DE, West Virginia
                                     Rd 5 Pk 19 - Korey Toomer, ILB, Idaho

     Things started off poorly for the Hawks, reaching by 2-rounds to grab Irvin. I think Irvin can develop into an exceptional pass rusher at the pro level, but I think his game is too one-dimentional right now, and his behavioral issues may come back to bit Seattle.  Too much of a risk to take so early.  I know some folks were excited about the Russel Wilson selection, but I am just not sure how he will play out.  I had him as a low fourth/early fifth grade, so round 3, pick 12 is a bit of a reach too.  I do like the Winston pick in the 6th. I think the kid is a play maker, and I expect him to contribute from year one.


#31 - Chicago Bears     DPA:1.83   NFL.com Avg:62.70   NFL.com Rank:28
     Highest Rated Picks: Rd 2 Pk 13 - Alshon Jeffrey, WR, South Carolina

     Lowest Rated Picks: Rd 3 Pk 16 - Brandon Hardin, FS, Oregon State
                                     Rd 4 Pk 16 - Evan Rodriguez, FB/TE, Temple

     The Bears had some opportunities that I feel they let slip by during this draft.  I like Shea McClellin as a ball player, but I didn't love the Bears picking him in the 1st.  Sure Briggs is getting older, but the defensive front needed more attention, and the o-line needs to be completely overhauled.  Too much talent was still there at positions of need to take a luxury pick.  I really Like the Alshon Jeffrey pick.  Opposite Brandon Marshall, and Johnny Knox, the Bears have a nice receiving corps now.  Hardin and Rodriguez were throw away picks in the 3rd and 4th.  To address the secondary Chicago should have looked at a Brandon Boykin  in the third, and I am not sure Evan Rodriguez will be a long lasting player on the Bears roster either.


#30 - Oakland Raiders     DPA:2.00   NFL.com Avg:60.52   NFL.com Rank:31
     Highest Rated Picks: Rd 5 Pk 33 - Juron Criner, WR, Arizona

     Lowest Rated Picks: Rd 3 Pk 32 - Tony Bergstrom, OT, Utah

     The Raiders did not have too much to work with.  Their first pick wasn't until the end of the thrid round, and their selection of Tony Bergstrom with a guy like Bobby Massie inexplicably still available was baffling to me.  I felt considering they got started late due to adding Carson Palmer and Tyrell Prior, they needed to make the most out of each and every pick, and I think they failed to do that.  I did like the addition of Juron Criner in the 5th.  He had a late 4th round grade in my book, and I think he can be an immediate addition to a wide receiving corp that had some trouble staying healthy last year.  I like the hire of Reggie Mackenzie as the GM, but I am not yet sold on the results of this draft.



#29 - Denver Broncos     DPA:2.13   NFL.com Avg:66.37   NFL.com Rank:25
     Highest Rated Picks: Rd 4 Pk 6 - Omar Bolden, CB, Arizona State

     Lowest Rated Picks: Rd 2 Pk 4 - Derek Wolfe, DT, Cincinnati

     I agreed with John Elway, addressing the d-line was a must, and I even liked the move to trade back out of round 1, but I really did not like the selection of Derek Wolfe.  Some have him rated higher, but I just did not see enough to make me grade him any higher than a 4th round.  With guys like Worthy, Still, and Reyes still all available, I feel this to be a very poor selection.  The rest of the picks felt like average picks, which is not a bad thing.  I am intrigued by the Osweiler pick.  A few years behind Manning could pay huge dividends.  I like Ronnie Hillman, although I think Denver reached a little for him.Phillip Blake could become a starter in the middle in year 1 or 2, Omar Bolden makes a nice heir apparent to Champ Bailey, and I think 7th round pick Danny Trevathan has a great chance of making the roster.  This draft was fairly average, with the Wolfe pick hurting it a bit.


#28 - New Orleans Saints     DPA:2.14   NFL.com Avg:56.58   NFL.com Rank:32

     Highest Rated Picks: Rd 4 Pk 27 - Nick Toon, WR, Wisconsin

     Lowest Rated Picks: Rd 5 Pk 27 - Corey White, SS, Samford

     This has been an exceptionally tough off season for the Saints.  With all that they have had going on, I almost feel like I am piling on.  But the truth is that the Saints didn't do anything exciting at all over the weekend.  I like the addition of Nick Toon, but the Saints are already deep at wide out.  None of the other picks made by the Saints during this draft were memorable in either direction.  Their top pick, Akiem Hicks has some potential, but serious consistency issues.  Not a terrible reach at the back end of the third, but not anything to get too excited about either.


#27 - New England Patriots     DPA:2.23   NFL.com Avg:73.82   NFL.com Rank:4
     Highest Rated Picks: Rd 7 Pk 17 - Alfonso Denard, CB, Nebraska

     Lowest Rated Picks: Rd 3 Pk 32 - Tavon Wilson, FS, Illinois
                                                           Nate Ebner, DB, Ohio State

     I know that I am going to get lambasted for this, but the numbers are what the numbers are.  Any high school kid can tell you, it is very difficult to have a stellar GPA when you have an F on your record.  The Pats did get an F for the Tavon Wilson selection (3-4 rounds too early) and a D for the pick of Nate Ebner, who only played special teams for the Buckeyes.  I did like their work in the first round to get both Chandler Jones and Dont'a Hightower, but I am slightly concerned about the lack of speed in the middle with Spikes and Hightower.  I loved the pick of Alfonso Denard in the seventh.  In my opinion that could very well be the steal of the draft.


#26 - San Francisco 49ers     DPA:2.24   NFL.com Avg:66.97   NFL.com Rank:23
     Highest Rated Picks: Rd 7 Pk 30 - Cam Johnson, DE, Virginia

     Lowest Rated Picks: Rd 1 Pk 30 - AJ Jenkins, WR, Illinois

     Since making major changes in their front office, I have typically been a fan of what the Niners have been doing to rebuild their roster.  I feel like they are a team on the cusp of greatness, but I am not sold that this year's draft is going to put them over the top.  They had some solid picks, and I love them grabbing Cam Johnson all the way at the bottom of the 7th.  On my board he was a 4th round talent, so I think they got themselves a solid guy at a great value.  Unfortunately, like the Pats, the 49ers overall grade is lower due to a F.  The pick of AJ Jenkins in the first round is worse than the Seahawks Brue Irvin selection.  The Jenkins pick feels like something that the Raiders would have done under Al Davis.  Jenkins is fast.  He is very fast.  but fast and football fast are two different things, and I am not sold on him being football fast.  His stock was rising quickly leading up to draft day, and I think San Fran got caught up in the hype.  To skip Ruben Randle, Stephen Hill, Brian Quick, Ryan Broyles, Mohamad Sanu, and other to grab Jenkins was simply head scratching to me.





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