I cannot remember a draft where there has been as much uncertainty as with this draft. Despite a strong sense of agreement among the draft community that KC will take Joeckel first overall, this is far from a certainty. Depending on which writer you read, yo can get drastically different opinions on players this year.
Remember, here at EZ Football Futures, we are not looking to predict what we think will happen. Instead, we are talking about what we think should happen when each team comes on the clock. There are a bunch of teams who could look to wheel and deal as we get closer to draft day, and even more trades that could occur once the event gets going, but this mock does not project trades either.
So as draft day gets even closer, lets take a look at the first three rounds.
1. Kansas City Chiefs – Luke Joeckel, OT, TAMU
I am still thinking this pick should come down to two possible selections. Joeckel is the best choice if the Chiefs are looking for a left tackle. But they still have Braden Albert on the roster. Albert won't move to the right side and Joeckel doesn't belong on the right side. This leaves Eric Fisher as a legit possibility as he can play on the left or the right. In the end it comes down to Albert. If KC sees Albert as a long term player on this roster, then Fisher is the choice. Right now, I think they will use Albert as a trade chip, and thus Joeckel makes the most sense.
2. Jacksonville Jaguars – Sharrif Floyd, DT, Florida
Looking over the Jags roster, you can see how they really do have the freedom to go in whatever direction they want with this pick. New HC Gus Bradley is a defensive minded individual, and I think they need a cornerstone to build around. Of the available players, I like Floyd the best for that role. He could develop into a game changing DT and that could be exactly what this team need as their future anchor for their defense.
3. Oakland Raiders – Dee Milliner, CB, Alabama
Since my previous mock, the Raiders made a move by releasing QB Carson Palmer, and adding QB Matt Flynn. The experts think the Raiders view Flynn as a backup. Thus many predict Geno Smith as their choice. Although Smith is my top rated QB in this class, I still feel third overall would be a stretch. Instead, I think Oakland should address their porous secondary and choose the top CB in this class. Milliner is a potential shut down corner, who can alter an opponents passing game, and the Raiders have to make strides to compete in a quickly improving AFC West.
4. Philadelphia Eagles – Dion Jordan, DE, Oregon
The Eagles will have a bunch of good options depending on what happens above them on draft day. In this scenario the best choice for the Eagles would be Jordan. He played for the Eagles new HC Chip Kelly at Oregon. He is athletic, fast, and he can come in and immediately start at OLB for this club. They are transitioning from a 4-3 to a 3-4 and they could really use Jordan to spark that transition.
5. Detroit Lions – Eric Fisher, OT, Central Michigan
The Lions would be best served if Dee Milliner was still available to them here. In this scenario however, Milliner is gone. Still, don't view Fisher as a consolation prize. With Jeff Backus having retired, the Lions have a need up front, and Fisher has the talent to be an impact player on either the left or right side. As I mentioned earlier, Fisher is still in serious consideration for the first overall pick, so this is a dynamic situation which is most certainly open to change.
6. Cleveland Browns – Star Lotulelei, DL, Utah
Of all of the mocks that I have read, I have yet to see this projection, but it really does make sense to me. The health scare Star Lotulelei faced at the combine proved to be nothing, and he really is an impact player. In the 3-4 the Browns will play, he would line up at DE. He has Haloti Ngata upside, and I think, although not their biggest need, this pick still makes sense.
7. Arizona Cardinals - Lane Johnson, OT, Oklahoma
Seven picks in and still no changes as compared to my previous mock. Why? We simply put, it still makes sense. Some will argue that if Geno Smith is here, he should be taken by the QB needy Cards. As I've repeated throughout draft season, a QB in round one would be a reach. Lane Johnson is a very high quality prospect, who will help keep the Cards round 2 QB selection upright as he learns the ropes in the NFL.
8. Buffalo Bills - Chance Warmack, OG, Alabama
My previous mocks had the Bills going in a different direction with this pick. But the more I thought about it, the more I saw this pick as making real sense. The Bills let OG Andy Levitre leave during free agency, and they have a real hole at the position. This year's draft class is unusual in many ways, including the presence of two real top notch guards. When you have the chance to land one, and you have the need that Buffalo has, I think you pull the trigger.
9. New York Jets - Jarvis Jones, DE/OLB, Georgia
When doing this mock, I looked over the Jets depth chart and I was surprised to see how many holes this team really has. The three that jumped out at me the most were at QB, RT, and OLB. With Joeckel, Fisher, and Johnson all gone, and the absence of a first round QB available, OLB should be the target. Last mock I had the Jets taking Barkevious Mingo. After further review, I have re-decided that Jarvis Jones is the better of the prospects. I really love his upside. There are some injury concerns, but in the end, every OLB prospect has some concerns. If I were the Jets front office, I would take the guy with the biggest upside, and that is the dynamic Jones.
10. Tennessee Titans - Xavier Rhodes, CB, Florida State
Although not a flashy move, the Titans opened free agency addressing their biggest need by adding the underrated Andy Levitre to play guard. I really like this addition for this team already on the rise. Jonathan Cooper would be a consideration, but the Titans also have a hole at corner too. I still like FSU's Xavier Rhodes. He can play physical, in-your-face football. I think his strength on the outside would be a welcome addition in Tennessee, and thus this is the call.
11. San Diego Chargers - Jonathan Cooper, OG, North Carolina
It is always nice when your team's biggest need matches up with the BPA in the draft. In the Bolts case, that is exactly the case here. The Bolts have to improve their o-line and Jonathan Cooper has the flexibility to play anywhere up front. I think he steps into the lineup as a starter on day 1. Considering the growth of Denver, and the developments in KC, I think the Chargers have to hit with this pick.
12. Miami Dolphins – Tyler Eifert, TE, Notre Dame
The Dolphins put a lot of money and effort into "winning" free agency, and they may have done just that. Adding Wallace and Gibson at wideout, Ellerby and Wheeler at LB, and Grimes at CB fills many of this teams needs. During my last mock, I had the Phins going with DT Sheldon Richardson. This is still a possibility considering their loss of McDaniel, but the more I think through this, the more I like Eifert here. The signing of Keller is a temporary fix at TE. Eifert has the upside to make a big splash in the league because of his skill/size combination. I think the Dolphins will want to continue to make sexy acquisitions, and give Tannehill more weapons and Eifer fits the bill.
13. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Ziggy Ansah, DE, BYU
Last year the Bucs began to address their secondary with Mark Barron. They still have holes at both corner and safety, but anyone at those positions would be a reach here. Instead, The Bucs will maximize value by taking Ziggy Ansah. Ansah had an incredible combine, and established himself as a legit defensive playmaker. He is raw, but has incredible upside, and with the hole left by Michael Bennett leaving, I think the Bucs will be happy to add Ansah's exceptional athleticism to their young defense.
14. Carolina Panthers - Cordarrelle Patterson, WR, Tennessee
Carolina is in a very good position with this draft. They have some holes, but a lot of their key positions are filled with young players, who are emerging stars. Now they will be in a position to add a real weapon to place opposite the aging Steve Smith. Giving Cam Newton another playmaker would make this a more dangerous offense. They added a defensive playmaker a year ago. Now, to again help the offense.
15. New Orleans Saints -Barkevious Mingo, DE/OLB, LSU
I love it when a college standout gets to stay at home to play his pro ball. It has the potential to be very special. Mingo played his college ball at LSU and with this pick, he would get to stay in state and play for the Saints. The Saints have to get better in the front seven, and Mingo has some real upside. He is one of the guys in this class with boom-bust potential. I think Payton will be very happy to add a talent like Mingo in his return from exile.
16. St Louis Rams - Tavon Austin, WR, West Virginia
The Rams are in a good position with this draft because of the RG3 trade from a year ago. Ultimately, they would love to see either Cooper or Warmack fall to them here. In this scenario, neither is available. Thus they look to either OLB or WR. Arthur Brown and Tavon Austin are the top two candidates available. Austin has been rocketing up draft boards this season. Adding a speed demon like Austin to the Rams offense could really help Jeff Fisher get closer to the top of the league's best conference.
17. Pittsburgh Steelers - Desmond Trufant, CB, Washington
This is the first time in a very long time, I can remember looking over the Pittsburgh Steelers and seeing so many holes. They have to fill needs at LB, NT, CB, WR, and RB. When the team looks over the available choices I think they will look to either Arthur Brown or Desmond Trufant. Trufant has very good speed and excellent ball skills. Considering how much trouble the team had in the secondary a year ago, adding a player like Trufant seems like the best possible choice for them at this point.
18. Dallas Cowboys - Kenny Vaccaro, S, Texas
Dallas is a team with a lot of talent that continues to fall short season after season. Last offseason they spent a lot of money trying to upgrade their secondary. They did better in 2012, but they still have some needs there. Adding the local product, Kenny Vaccaro will make the Big D fans happy. Although his measurables are a bit questionable, Vaccaro won everyone over at the combine with his personality and character. Dallas could use some high character influence in their locker room, and his smarts at the safety position will be well received too.
19. New York Giants - Arthur Brown, LB, Kansas State
Previous mock drafts had the Giants going after TE Tyler Eifer with this pick. Now he is gone, so it would bring Stanford TE Zach Ertz into the picture. The also have to make some additions to their defense. OLB and S are the areas that are the biggest concern for the G-Men. I really love the game Arthur Brown plays. He covers ground so well, and he is an exceptional tackler. I think the Giants will think so too, and that is why I think he should go to them at this point.
20. Chicago Bears - DJ Fluker, OT, Alabama
The biggest issue the Bears have faced over the last three seasons is the porous o-line they have. This has created erratic play from Cutler, and thus, inconsistent results. This offseason the Bears added Jermon Bushrod to play OT for them. In reality, this should likely preclude them from adding an OT with this pick... but it shouldn't. Bushrod is not the answer. I still see this team needing a real option to keep Cutler upright. If I were calling the shots in Chicago, I'd look at DJ Fluker with this pick. I like his production at Alabama, against some of the best competition anywhere in the nation. Then again, if I were calling the shots in Chicago, I would not have signed Bushrod in the first place.
21. Cincinnati Bengals - Keenan Allen, WR, California
I know exactly what many of you are going to say about this pick. Allen runs a 4.7 at his workout, and after that I have him moving up in the draft... huh? So here is the deal. Allen may not be a workout warrior, but he is a good football player. He reminds me a lot of guys like Anquan Boldin and Reggie Wayne, who have both had excellent careers after sub par performances in the 40 during the pre-draft process. If the Bengals could add a young Boldin/Wayne type player to pair with Green, they could have the weapons they will need at receiver for years to come.
22. St Louis Rams via Washington - John Cyprien, S, Florida International
With their first pick in this round the team added Austin. Now they need to look to the defensive side of the ball. OLB is their biggest need, but Arthur Brown is gone, and all the other options are too much of a reach. The Rams need a safety, and in ten years from now, I suspect we will view John Cyprien as the best from this class. He has tremendous upside. Despite a lack of big time competition, I think this kid is a stud, and Fisher and the Rams will be thrilled.
23. Minnesota Vikings - Mantei Te'o, LB, Notre Dame
Minnesota was considerably better this year than I anticipated. They still have some room to grow though. The Vikes traded away Percy Harvin in the offseason, but then they went and added Greg Jennings from Green Bay. They still need to add another WR, but they also have some additional holes. The biggest of these is at inside linebacker. Te'o has had a crazy offseason, but in the end, he is still a pretty good football player. He does have some limitations, as evidenced during the National Title Game, but Les Frazier will work to minimize those, and take advantage of the assets Te'o does have.
24. Indianapolis Colts - Alec Ogletree, LB, Georgia
After a demonstration of seriously poor decision making earlier in the offseason, Ogletree fell down my board to the second round. I think I may have overreacted. Ogletree is still a hell of a football player. He makes plays all over the field from his post in the middle of the defense, and the Colts could use that. Ogletree needs to be around some good influences, and Andrew Luck and the coaching staff in Indy will be exactly that.
25. Minnesota Vikings via Seattle - Bjoern Werner, DE, Florida State
Seattle sent this pick to the Vikings in exchange for Percy Harvin. With their earlier pick, the Vikes added Te'o. Now they can continue to bolster their defense with the addition of Werner. Warner is another boom/bust time of player, but the Vikes would be very happy if he reaches his full potential. He can become a big time pass rusher if he gives his best effort on every play. Frazier has a talent of getting maximum effort out of his guys, so I do like the pairing here.
26. Green Bay Packers - Sheldon Richardson, DT, Missouri
With an exceptionally talented team, the Packers can pretty much sit tight and adopt a BPA strategy with this pick in the first round. This is the typical plan for the Packers, and again it works out to their extreme advantage. Sheldon Richardson is too talented to have fallen, but he did. Now the Packers can grab him, and transition him to a DE in their 3-4 scheme. Richardson next to Raji. Oh boy. If I was a QB or RB in the NFC North, I would be nervous. Very nervous.
27. Houston Texans - Robert Woods, WR, USC
Woods is another player who has moved down the board, and now he is on his way back up again. Woods is an overall good talent. Unfortunately he suffered as did the rest of the Trojans this past year. Then his injury made for even more fear with him. Woods can be an asset though, and with the Texans needing WRs as badly as they do, and with Andre Johnson still there to be a mentor, I like this pairing.
28. Denver Broncos - Sylvester Williams, DT, North Carolina
Denver was awfully close last year, and now they have added Wes Welker to the offense. If they can add a few more pieces to the defense, they could take that next step. The addition of Dominique Rodgers Cromartie to the secondary was nice, and it really leaves the Broncos to look at d-line with this next pick. Many are projecting them to try and replace Elvis Dumerville here, but based on what is available, I like the addition of Sylvester Williams. Williams has grown on me. The more I watch of him, the more I like. This is his first appearance in the top round of my mocks this year, but I think he is deserving of this distinction.
29. New England Patriots - Barrett Jones, OL, Alabama
How much heat has my continued projection of Jones to the Pats here earned me? Well after my last mock posted, I was called every name in the book. Sorry all, but your insults are going to dissuade me. The Pats take they guys they think will best fit their system. They don't adhere to "standard" ratings either. They love guys with a background in Nick Saban's program, and Jones fits all of these criteria. Bottom line is they have a need at center. Jones is a tough smart player. His lower than average athletics will not push New England away from this pick.
30. Atlanta Falcons - Zach Ertz, TE, Stanford
On the first day of free agency, the Falcons got very good news. Future hall-of-fame tight end Tony Gonzalez has decided to return for one more season. This means the Falcons don't yet have a big hole to fill. This does not mean that they should not look at TE with this pick. Zach Ertz projects higher that Coby Fleener did at this time a year ago, and adding Ertz who could learn from Gonzo for a year is a perfect scenario for the Falcons. My suggestion would be to grab Ertz here, and fill some of their other holes later in the draft.
31. San Francisco 49ers – Eric Reid, S, LSU
After falling just short in the Big Game this past season, the Niners are loading up for another run. They have made some nice moves, including adding the veteran receiver Anquan Boldin earlier in the month. In addition, this team is loaded with draft picks this year, so they can sure up any holes they feel they have. With Dashon Goldson's defection to Tampa, the biggest hole is at safety. Reid has a high round 2 grade, so with pick 31, this is not much of a reach. He is a smart player who has a propensity to make plays in the crunch. I like this fit quite a bit.
32. Baltimore Ravens - Matt Elam, S, Florida
When you are the Super Bowl champs, you wear a big target on your back. The Ravens learned this only weeks after hoisting the Lombardi trophy as other teams began to pick them clean following their title. Ray Lewis and Matt Birk retired. Then Kruger, Reed, Pollard, Ellerby, and Boldin all committed to continuing their careers elsewhere. This leaves the defending champs with some serious holes, and unfortunately, I suspect that this draft scenario would result in all of their top targets having been selected. Next on their list should be Elam. I love the way this kid plays the game, but I don't project him to be a superstar pro. Can he be good? Yes, and I think that is why the Ravens should select him here. Everyone needs to start rebuild with someone, and I see Elam as the guy.
33. Jacksonville Jaguars - Geno Smith, QB, West Virginia
34. San Francisco 49ers via Kansas City - Jesse Williams, DT, Alabama
35. Philadelphia Eagles - Jamar Taylor, CB, Bosie State
36. Detroit Lions - Cornellius Carradine, DE, Florida State
37. Cincinnati Bengals via Oakland - Eddy Lacy, RB, Alabama
38. Arizona Cardinals - Matt Barkley, QB, USC
39. Cleveland Browns - Pick Forfeited
40. New York Jets - Menelik Watson, OT, Florida State
41. Tennessee Titans - Margus Hunt, DE, SMU
42. Buffalo Bills - Tyler Wilson, QB, Arkansas
43. Miami Dolphins - Dallas Thomas, OT, Tennessee
44. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - DJ Hayden, CB, Houston
45. Carolina Panthers - Darius Slay, CB, Mississippi State
46. New Orleans Saints - Pick Forfeited
47. San Diego Chargers - Kevin Minter, LB, LSU
48. St Louis Rams - Demontre Moore, DE/OLB, TAMU
49. Dallas Cowboys - Kawann Short, DT, Purdue
50. Pittsburgh Steelers - DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Clemson
51. New York Giants - DJ Swearinger, S, South Carolina
52. Chicago Bears - Kiko Alonso, LB, Oregon
53. Washington Redskins - David Amerson, CB, NC State
54. Minnesota Vikings - Justin Hunter, WR, Tennessee
55. Cincinnati Bengals - Sam Montgomery, DE, LSU
56. Miami Dolphins via Indianapolis - Kyle Long, OG, Oregon
57. Green Bay Packers - Phillip Thomas, S, Fresno State
58. Seattle Seahawks - Alex Okafor, DE/OLB, Texas
59. Houston Texans - Justin Pugh, OT, Syracuse
60. Denver Broncos - Jamie Collins, OLB, Southern Miss
61. New England Patriots - Ryan Swope, WR, TAMU
62. Atlanta Falcons - Robert Alford, CB, Southeastern Louisiana
63. San Francisco 49ers - Larry Warford, G, Kentucky
64. Baltimore Ravens - Jonathan Bostic, LB, Florida
65. Kansas City Chiefs - Corey Lemonier, DE, Auburn
66. Jacksonville Jaguars - Cornelius Washington, LB, Georgia
67. Detroit Lions - Kenny Stills, WR, Oklahoma
68. Oakland Raiders - Jordan Reed, TE, Florida
69. Philadelphia Eagles - Bennie Logan, DL, LSU
70. Cleveland Browns - Johnathan Banks, CB, Mississippi State
71. Arizona Cardinals - Zavier Gooden, LB, Missouri
72. Tennessee Titans - Terron Armstead, OT, Arkansas Pine Bluff
73. Buffalo Bills - Aaron Dobson, WR, Marshall
74. New York Jets - Shamarko Thomas, S, Syracuse
75. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - EJ Manuel, QB, Florida State
76. San Francisco 49ers via Miami - Marcus Lattimore, RB, South Carolina
77. New Orleans Saints - Johnathan Hankins, DT, Ohio State
78. San Diego Chargers - Blidi Wreh Wilson, CB, UConn
79. Miami Dolphins - JJ Wilcox, S, Georgia Southern
80. St Louis Rams - Sean Porter, LB, TAMU
81. Pittsburgh Steelers - Datone Jones, DE/OLB, UCLA
82. Dallas Cowboys - Travis Frederick, C, Wisconsin
83. New York Giants - Vance McDonald, TE, Rice
84. Miami Dolphins via Chicago - Quanterus Smith, DE, Western Kentucky
85. Minnesota Vikings - Sanders Commings, DB, Georgia
86. Cincinnati Bengals - Jordan Mills, OT, La Tech
87. Washington Redskins - Marquise Goodwin, WR, Texas
88. Indianapolis Colts - Dwayne Gratz, CB, UConn
89. Seattle Seahawks - Oday Aboushi, OT, Virginia
90. Green Bay Packers - Montee Ball, RB, Wisconsin
91. Houston Texans - John Jenkins, NT, Georgia
92. Denver Broncos - Logan Ryan, CB, Rutgers
93. New England Patriots - Jordan Poyer, S, Oregon State
94. Atlanta Falcons - Brandon Jenkins, DE/OLB, Florida State
95. San Francisco 49ers - Stedman Bailey, WR, West Virginia
96. Baltimore Ravens - Quinton Patton, WR, La Tech
97. Houston Texans - TJ McDonald, S, USC
98. Kansas City Chiefs - Sio Moore, LB, UConn
99. Tennessee Titans - Josh Boyce, WR, TCU
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