Mailbag 3-12-12

Time to take a look at the old mailbag, and see what we have waiting for us today...

EZ...

    So I really respect the work that you do, but I don't always agree with your analysis.  Since the beginning of draft season, you have had the Husker corner, Alfonso Denard rated as a first round player.  The guy may have been good last year, but that was an anomaly.  He was a total dud this past season, and in no way deserves to be picked in the first.  What gives?

Brandon L - Stillwater, Oklahoma

Brandon,

    First let me say thank you for both the read, and the compliment.  Now onto your question.  Just like pro scouts and GMs, I sometimes see a guy and fall in love.  The first time I really watched Denard play was last year, and I was very impressed.  I think my opinion of him formed then, and was reinforced over the rest of the season.  As I have said in the last few mocks, Denard's play did fall off this past season, but maybe the fall off was the anomaly.  Either way, I don't have him graded as a round 1 talent.  In my book he has a solid round 2 grade.  I just had the Lions reaching for him in recent mocks.  Having said that, every year I go back and take second and third looks a some guys.  I have done that recently with a few guys, including South Carolina CB, Stephon Gilmore.  I think that I have underrated Gilmore and have since bumped him up my board, which will have an impact on future mocks.  

    And before you ask, some of the other names that have been recently reviewed again, and earned an increase over their previous rating include:

• Ruben Randall, WR, LSU
• Kevin Zeitler, OG, Wisconsin
• Vinny Curry, DE, Marshall
• Jared Crick, DE, Nebraska
• Travis Lewis, OLB, Oklahoma
• Mike Adams, OT, Ohio State

Brandon, thanks again for the question, and I hope you keep on reading.

Hey Biggie,

     So I know you focus on the emerging college kids, but I am sure you have an opinion on the whole Peyton Manning thing.  Who do you think has the edge to get him, and how to you think the landscape of the league changes based on what he decides?  Who else could be effected by this?  Thanks for writing this stuff.

Chris T - Knoxville, TN

Chris...

    Thanks for the question man.  Although I do typically spend more time on the college kids, I will share with you my thoughts on Peyton.  First, let me say that there has never, ever, been a free agent the caliber of Peyton Manning on the open market, and I say that with all due respect to the late Reggie White.  I am in the group of folks who still think Peyton has something left in the tank, and would be a great add for just about anyone, even if only for a year or three.  Having said that, I think at this point it is down to three teams for Manning.  I will give you the impact scenarios, in order of most likely destination, first to third.

Arizona Cardinals - In my mind, Arizona is the best destination for Manning of the teams still in the mix.  Now if he does in fact land in Arizona, the first casualty of this decision will be Kevin Kolb.  The Cards sent picks to the Eagles in exchange for Kolb last year, and this year they will finish paying for that deal. Despite his struggles last year before going down with an injury, Kolb will still have some market value.  Teams like the Seahawks, and Dolphins; and to a lesser extent, Cleveland and Denver will all kick the tires on him.  At the end of the day, I would guess that if Peyton lands in Arizona, Kolb heads to Seattle.  

Denver Broncos - Denver was the first stop on Peyton's tour, and as it appears from all of the reports, was a team who made a great impression on him.  Having John Elway calling the shots sure doesn't hurt.  Now if Peyton does indeed choose the mile high city, obviously the most impacted other in this scenario would be Tim Tebow.  He would be out and even with the Manning signing, Denver will still have some PR to do because of the fanatic following Tebow has.  Should this happen, I would expect that Tebow will be shopped and eventually land in Jacksonville.  They are a franchise whose new owner has publicly declared that it was a mistake to pass on him in the draft a few years ago.  But if Timmy does head home, this would impact last years first round pick, Blaine Gabbart.  I would expect the Jags to shop Gabbart, and I would think the most logical destination for him will be Miami.  They are searching for a young signal caller to build around, and I think they would likely prefer the former Tiger to Tannehill, or anyone else from this year's class (other than Luck or Griffin, who they will not get).  Now the timing on this will be very important because I think Miami will prefer Flynn over Gabbart, so if they can sign him, Blain may be in search for another team.  The Seahawks would also be in heavy play here.

Miami Dolphins - Although a distant third, it still appears as if Miami is in the Manning race.  Should he land in Miami, I think the person most impacted by this will be Matt Flynn.  Miami does not have an incumbent who would be dropped with Peyton's arrival.  Chad Henne will not be back in aqua, and Matt Moore will return to the bench to pitch in relief.  Flynn however is the best free agent QB not named Manning, and right now he is positioned to watch Seattle and Miami start bidding against each other for his services.  If the Phins land Manning, that reduces Flynn's market by one major player, and thus will cost him some cash.  Sure, some other teams will be in the mix for Flynn, but it will be more cursory.  Outside of Seattle and Miami, the only other team who desperately needs a QB is Washington, and they just dealt to land Griffin, and thus left the marketplace.

Thanks for the question Chris.

Hello EZ,

    Each year you give all of the prospects a rating based on the round you think they should be drafted.  I know there are typically 30 or so players who get a first round grade.  But among those guys, aren't there some guys who are just a bit better? Obviously very few of them, if any, will eventually land in Canton, but of this class, who has the best chance of that?  Thanks so much.

Rex F - Austin, TX

Rex...

    Thanks so much for your question.  Let me start by warning against enshrining anyone from any class prior to them ever having played a down in the NFL.  All of the evaluations in the world sometimes mean nothing in the end.  Having said that, there is in fact a rating that I have which is better than a round 1 grade, and that is my "Elite" rating.  Players who are elite, are guys who I feel have the best potential to be true game changers at the next level.  These are the guys I think that opposing coaches could lose sleep over have to game plan against.  From this year's group, I have pegged 6 different players as Elite.  They are listed below.

• Andrew Luck, QB, Stanford - Luck is really a once in a lifetime type prospect.  This guy is simply the best rated prospect to come out of college in the past quarter century.  Simply put, he has the best chance of anyone to be that elite talent.
• Robert Griffin, QB, Baylor - RG3 is more of the breed of new QBs than Luck, but he has an exceptional upside.  As a mobile QB, people make the mistake of comparing him to Mike Vick and Cam Newton from a talent perspective, but this would be a mistake.  Griffin is some much farther along than either of those guys at the same point in their careers.  Yes, RG3 can run, and he will shred a defense when he does, but he is a true pass first kind of player.  He wants to sit in the pocket and find his target, and that is what he strives to do.  He will however use is considerable speed to create opportunities should he not find anything.  There is a very bright future on the horizon for him in the NFL.
• Morris Claiborne, CB, LSU - The natural comparison for Claiborne is his former teammate, drafted a year ago, Patrick Peterson.  Now except for Peterson's exceptional return ability, Claiborne grades out higher in every other way.  The NFL is right now a passing league, and this puts a premium on true shut down corners.  Claiborne has the best chance of anyone in this class at becoming a Revis type corner.  He has all of the skills you want in a guy who will match up against another team's number 1 receiver.  
• Matt Kalil, OT, USC - It has been said time and time again, that if the QB is the most important position on the field, the blind side tackle is the second most critical.  Kurt Warner, QB of the Greatest Show on Turf, touts Orlando Pace as the key to his success in St Louis.  Trent Dilfer who was under center for the Ravens when they hoisted the Lombardi Trophy, claims that the offense would have been dramatically different if not for Jonathan Ogden.  Kalil has enough talent in him to eventually be mentioned alongside those guys.  He will give his signal caller enough time in an upright position to be able to find targets downfield, and will prevent him from taking some potentially devastating hits in the back.  
• Trent Richardson, RB, Alabama - Yes the league has gone to a running back by committee approach, and yes this does devalue the "factor back" to some extent, but Richardson is the best back to come out of college since Adrian Peterson in '07.  In the right system, Richardson can be difference between wins and losses for a team, and in the end, that is what teams are looking for.  Richardson has exceptionally rare lower body strength, and along with his low center of gravity, this makes him very difficult to bring down. He may not have the top end, breakaway speed that some guys possess, but he is by no means slow, and I doubt he will get caught from behind.  The bottom line with Richardson is I think of anyone in this class, he has the best chance at making an immediate impact.
• Justin Blackmon, WR, Oklahoma State - Blackmon is the final player to make the cut into the elite category.  His production for the Cowboys is unmatched, and he has all of the right tools to bring it at the next level.  An easy comparison for Blackmon is his former teammate, Dez Bryant.  Bryant fell on draft day, but he is beginning to emerge as a real threat in Dallas.  I like Blackmon better than I did Bryant.  I think Blackmon uses his body better at the same point in their careers.  Now that the second pick in the draft has been dealt, Minnesota is in the pole position to hold a sweepstakes to see who will have the right to add this guy to their roster next season.

One last point to make on this subject.  Although the guys I think are elite are those who I feel have the best chance at being real difference makers in the league, there are always guys drafted lower who also develop into those type of players.  Again, just pointing out how inexact the "science" of player evaluation really is.  Rex, thanks again for the question.  I hope to talk with you again soon.

2012 Mock Draft 3.1

Although big trades are typical for the NFL Draft, a mega deal 1-month prior to the first pick is a bit unusual.  With Washington moving up 4 spots in the first round, and giving St Louis quite the bounty in the process, a lot happens in the first round and of course that trickles down into the second, and so forth.  Also, the arrest of Orson Charles sees him dropping out of the second round too.  Let’s look at the changes.

1.       Indianapolis Colts – Andrew Luck, QB, Stanford

Peyton is gone.  So is Wayne, Clark, Addai, Brackett, and it is possible that Freeny will be dealt too.  It is truly a new era in Indy, and there is no better guy in this draft to build the franchise around than Andrew Luck.

2.       Washington Redskins via St. Louis – Robert Griffin III, QB, Baylor

Three 1’s and a 2 is a whole lot to give up to move up 4 spots, but that is the price the Skins paid to grab RG3.  If he pans out, becoming a franchise QB in the process, the team will feel like they got value.  It will be hard to put in pieces around him though with less draft firepower over the next three years.

3.       Minnesota Vikings – Matt Kalil, OT, USC

The Vikings may as well start fitting Kalil for his new jersey now.  Like the two picks before him, this is a slam dunk.  The Vikes need someone to keep their QB of the future upright, and no one in this class is more equipped to do that than Kalil.

4.       Cleveland Browns – Trent Richardson, RB, Alabama

Cleveland is now in the point position for the 2012 draft.  What they do with this pick will sway the rest of the first round and beyond.  With RG3 spoken for, the Browns will be left to pick between the draft’s best RB and the best WR.  Both will be positions of need for Cleveland, and in the end, I think they should pick Richardson.  Hillis is out, and to grab a premiere RB like Richardson will be a huge coup for the Dawg Pound.

5.       Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Morris Claiborne, CB, LSU

There was not a lot of questions going into the combine as to whom the top corner of the 2012 class was.  Coming out of Indy, there are no questions at all.  Claiborne showed everything you want from a number 1 corner, and now rates higher than his teammate from a year ago Patrick Peterson.  The Bucs need to find a replacement for Ronde Barber, and Aquib Talib seems to be working very hard on his 6X9 retirement plan.  Claiborne is the right guy. 

6.       St Louis Rams via Washington – Justin Blackmon, WR, Oklahoma State

What a dream for the Rams.  They trade down four spots in the first round, earn an extr second this year, and an extra first in each of the next two, and still land the guy at the top of their board.  Blackmon is easily the top WR in this class, and gives Sam Bradford a great target to throw to.  With the extra picks, the Rams can continue to stockpile talent, and should be a contender again in no time.  The only possible change will be if Blackmon is picked by Cleveland.  Then expect the Rams to grab Riley Reiff from Iowa.

7.       Jacksonville Jaguars – Quinton Coples, DE, North Carolina

New Head Coach, Mike Mularkey will have his work cut out for him in Jacksonville, but he has a nice piece at QB in Blaine Gabbert to build around.  Now he needs to look to improve a defense that struggled getting after the QB last year.  Coples is an excellent athlete off the edge, and the best d-lineman on the board.  South Carolina’s, Melvin Ingram will also be a consideration if Coples is deemed to be too inconsistent.

8.       Miami Dolphins – Ryan Tannehill, QB, TAMU

Even if this team lands Peyton Manning, which is a distinct possibility, I still think they choose Tannehill here.  Manning is 36, and clearly there are questions about his durability.  Allowing a hall-of-famer like Manning mentor Tannehill for a few years before handing over the reins could finally answer the QB question that has been plaguing Miami since Dan Marino hung up his cleats.

9.       Carolina Panthers – Dontari Poe, DT, Memphins

After losing the coin toss to Miami, the Panther will be picking 9^th.  The team has a serious need at corner, but I don’t see anyone still available worth taking this high.  Instead, I think the Panthers will focus on shoring up a weak middle which resulted in a very poor run defense last season.  Poe’s questionable work ethic makes this a huge risk, but his jaw-dropping combine and freakish athletic ability/size combination will be too much to resist, and will result in him finding himself picked in the top ten.  

10.   Buffalo Bills – Melvin Ingram, DE, South Carolina

Buffalo has some nice pieces to build around, but the defense still has some serious holes.  The Bama DT Darius was a nice pick last year, but now they need to figure out a way to get after the QB.  Ingram is the best player still on the defensive side of the board, and would be an excellent fit for this team.

11.   Kansas City Chiefs – Riley Reiff, OT, Iowa

As I mentioned earlier, Reiff could find himself in St Louis depending on Cleveland’s decision at 4, but in this scenario he fall right to the Chiefs.  As I mentioned during my last mock, Reiff may not be the sure thing I had initially thought, but he is still a very worth wile risk for KC here at 11.  Once this team is healthy again, watch out world.

12.   Seattle Seahawks –Andre Branch, DE, Clemson

The Hawks are going to go all-in on Manning, but it looks like they will come up empty.  Also, they re-signed Lynch this offseason, which secures them at RB.  Their biggest need to still address will be under center, but to avoid reaching, they will look at getting pressure on opposing QBs instead.  Branch has been rising up boards with a very nice offseason, and Seattle will call his name here.

13.   Arizona Cardinals – David DeCastro, OG, Stanford

The Cardinals need help in a few spots, but none greater than their o-line.  DeCastro is a valuable add as he is flexible enough to play inside or out.  I think long term he projects best at Guard, but with all the holes up front for Zona, DeCastro will be an immediate upgrade for this team.

14.   Dallas Cowboys – Dre Kirkpatrick, CB, Alabama

Kirkpatrick is in a heated battle with North Alabama’s Janoris Jenkins for the second spot amongst corners on the board.  Both are physically gifted talents with questions about their character.  In the end, I suspect Kirkpatrick will be deemed the less risky of the two and thus the selection of the Dallas Cowboys.

15.   Philadelphia Eagles – Luke Kuechly, ILB, Boston College

Luke Kuechly did in Indy exactly what he does best.  He simply performed.  This guy brings an awesome work ethic and attitude to the table and will be an immediate upgrade for a disappointing Eagles team who will be looking for answers. 

16.   New York Jets – Jonathan Martin, OT, Stanford

The Jets have needs in a few spots, but when they get on the clock, it will be between Martin, and Bama Safety, Mark Barron.  Getting help on D is important, but with Sanchez having just signed an extension, the Jets have to do a better job protecting him.  Martin cut his teeth protecting Andrew Luck at Stanford, and that will be enough for Tannenbaum to pull the trigger here.

17.   Cincinnati Bengals via Oakland – Janoris Jenkins, CB, North Alabama

Thanks to the Carson Palmer deal, the Bengals have two first rounders to continue to build their franchise.  Losing Jonathan Joseph last season hurt, so adding his replacement should be their priority.  No one questions Jenkins physical talents, however, there are plenty of questions about his character.  This team has taken risks with characters before (TO, Pacman) so Jenkins past may not weigh quite as heavily on this team as it would others.

18.   San Diego Chargers – Cordy Glenn, OG, Georgia

 The Chargers need help upfront.  Their lack of consistent line play led to Phillip Rivers having his worst season as the Bolts starting QB last year, and for him, and ultimately them to rebound, they will need to handle pressure better.  Cordy Glenn is a man on the rise following an excellent combine.  He proved to many that he is the rare OG worthy of a first round selection and I think he would be a good fit in San D.

19.   Chicago Bears – Michael Floyd, WR, Notre Dame

The Bears have speed but they still lack a true, reliable, number one receiver.  Floyd has good speed, and great hands.  He uses his body well, and knows how to go up and get the ball.  He has experience in playing in cold weather, so Chicago could be the perfect fit for this Notre Dame product who solidified himself as the number two WR prospect with his work at the combine.

20.   Tennessee Titans – Courtney Upshaw, LB, Alabama

In past mocks, Courtney Upshaw was long gone by the time the Titans get on the clock.  Now he is available to Tennessee because his stock is falling after performing poorly in Indy.  When the Titans are up there will be a lot of debate between selecting Upshaw versus Clemson DE, Andre Branch who stock is on the rise.  In the end, the Titans will choose the Bama product, and they will be glad they did.  His play for the Tide means more to me than his performance at the combine, and I suspect he will be a very solid pro.

21.   Cincinnati Bengals – David Wilson, RB, Virginia Tech

Before the combine, I was having a hard time finding any other back I liked behind Richardson.  Now there are a few.  The truth is, Richardson is still the class of this group, but David Wilson is no slouch.  He has an excellent combination of size and speed, and I think he can be a good back at the next level.  He holds a slight lead on Lamar Miller, and Doug Martin for the number two spot for backs on my board.

22.   Cleveland Browns via Atlanta – Mark Barron, S Alabama

Now that Richardson is in the fold, the Browns will look at both wide out, and their secondary.  The 2012 receiver class is deeper than that of the secondary positions, so grabbing the best safety on the board will be a better value pick here.  Barron was a leader on the best defense in the nation last year, and that type of experience will help him and the Browns immensely.

23.   Detroit Lions – Alfonso Denard, CB, Nebraska

The Lions made some excellent strides last year, becoming a playoff team for the first time since the Roosevelt Administration. They have a very high powered offense, and a strong, young group at the front of their defense.  Now they need to shore up that secondary.  Denard comes with some questions about his subpar senior season, and a weak showing at the combine, but is a strong talent nonetheless.  I think he is a risk worth taking for Detroit at this point in the draft.

 

24.   Pittsburgh Steelers – Dont'a Hightower, LB, Alabama

Pittsburgh has cut ties with some of their key veterans, including Hines Ward, Aaron Smith, and James Farrior.  Replacing Smith and Farrior will be of the utmost priority.  Hightower is a good inside backer, and he gets after the ball carrier very well.  Pittsburgh has a long history of having outstanding linebackers, and I expect Hightower to be the next in that illustrious line.

25.   Denver Broncos – Fletcher Cox, DT, Mississippi State

Denver is going head first after Peyton Manning, but when they strike out, Elway and company will be able to focus on their largest need.  The Broncos defense was much improved last season thanks to the phenomenal play of rookie Von Miller.  Now, they need to get themselves stronger in the trenches to both hold up against the run better, and keep o-lineman from getting out to the next level and putting a body on Miller.  Cox is good up front and has what it takes to solidify this defense.  His addition could catapult this defense from playoff caliber to championship caliber. 

26.   Houston Texans – Alshon Jeffery, WR, South Carolina

The Houston Texans are a team to watch as they are very good and getting better.  They really do need another weapon on the other side of Andre Johnson however.  Alshon Jeffery is a guy I have long been high on.  I think he has all of the skills you want in a wide out.  Although not spectacular, his showing at the combine was sufficient to move him into the third spot on the board amongst WRs.  With a healthy Schaub, along with Foster, Tate, Johnson, and now Jeffery… my oh my.

27.   New England Patriots via New Orleans – Zach Brown, LB, New England

Every year the Pats field an excellent ball club, and I think it is because of a combination of having this generation’s best coach on the side line, and all of the draft day gymnastics this team always seem to execute.  Two more first round picks for the Pats will allow for New England to continue to re-stock rather than rebuild.  Zach Brown is a tremendous athlete, and although raw, open to learning.  With the tutelage available to him in New England, he can develop into what I expect to be an excellent force at linebacker.

28.   Green Bay Packers – Whitney Mercillus, DE, Illinois

The Packers really have very few weaknesses, so they can really go in any direction with this pick.  Despite being eliminated from the playoffs early, I still feel Green Bay is the best team in the league.  Adding a guy like Mercillus could make the best even better.  Getting more pressure off the edge is almost always a good thing, and Mercillus could help them do that.

29.   Baltimore Ravens – Peter Konz, C, Wisconsin

Baltimore is another very good team without too many pressing needs.  Unfortunately they have some key players who are getting a bit long in the tooth (Lewis, Reed, Birk) that they need to start to think about replacing.  Birk is coming back for what most expect to be his final season.  Drafting the best center in this year’s class would be a wise investment in this team’s future.

30.   San Francisco 49ers – Kendall Wright, WR, Baylor

Despite a worse than anticipated performance at the combine, Kendall Wright is a fairly luck guy.  His performance was not so bad that it made scouts question all they thought they knew about him.  It also helps that San Fran has such a glaring need at the position.  I don’t know if he will ever grow into a superstar in the league, but I do think he will be a better option than most of what is there for Smith to throw to now.

31.   New England Patriots – Lamar Miller, RB, Miami

I still have confidence that the Pats will eventually deal this pick, but assuming they keep it, I see them choosing Miller here.  I know New England doesn’t have a tremendous amount of needs, but it looks like the law firm will be moving out of Boston.  Miller is an exciting talent who could help this run game and keep the Pats as the team to beat in the AFC East.

32.   New York Giants – Coby Fleener, TE, Stanford

The Giants are a tough team to peg because more than anyone they really do stick to the best player available philosophy.  Fleener is the top TE in this class, and a good value at this point in the draft.  Considering the injuries to the Giant incumbents at the TE position, this makes this selection make even more sense.

33.   St Louis Rams – Ronnell Lewis, LB, Oklahoma

34.   Indianapolis Colts – Chris Owusu, WR, Stanford

35.   Minnesota Vikings – Chase Minnefield, CB, Minnesota

36.   Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Levonte David, LB, Nebraska

37.   Cleveland Browns – Mohamed  Sanu, WR, Rutgers

38.   Jacksonville Jaguars – Stephen Hill, WR, Georgia Tech

39.   St Louis Rams via Washington – Michael Brockers, DT, LSU

40.   Carolina Panthers – Nick Perry, DE/OLB, USC

41.   Buffalo Bills – Bruce Irvin, DE/OLB, West Virginia

42.   Miami Dolphins – Chandler Jones, DE, Syracuse

43.   Seattle Seahawks – Brandon Weeden, QB, Oklahoma State

44.   Kansas City Chiefs – Dwayne Allen, TE, Clemson

45.   Dallas Cowboys – David Molk, C, Michigan

46.   Philadelphia Eagles – Devon Still, DT, Penn State

47.   New York Jets – Harrison Smith, S, Notre Dame

48.   New England Patriots via Oakland – Jerel Worthy, DT, Michigan State

49.   San Diego Chargers – Jayron Hosley, CB, Virginia Tech

50.   Chicago Bears – Klechi Osmele, OG, Iowa State

51.   Philadelphia Eagles via Arizona – Billy Winn, DE, Bosie State

52.   Tennessee Titans – Antonio Allen, S, South Carolina

53.   Cincinnati Bengals – Mike Brewster, C, Ohio State

54.   Detroit Lions – Mychal Kendrick, LB, California

55.   Atlanta Falcons – Brandon Washington, OG, Miami

56.   Pittsburgh Steelers – Casey Heyward, CB, Vanderbilt

57.   Denver Broncos – Nick Foles, QB, Arizona

58.   Houston Texans – Brandon Thompson, DT, Clemson

59.   New Orleans Saints – Kendall Reyes, DT, UConn

60.   Green Bay Packers – Josh Robinson, CB, Central Florida

61.   Baltimore Ravens – Vontaze Burfict, LB, Arizona State

62.   San Francisco 49ers – Mike Martin, DT, Michigan

63.   New England Patriots – George Lloka, S, Boise State

64.   New York Giants – Doug Martin, RB, Boise State

Mailbag 3-3-12

So with today's addition of the mailbag, I have decided to do something a little different.  Rather than post the insightful questions which really deserve an answer, I've decided to share some of my more critical readers emails.  It amazes me how much anger a small blog like this can generate from folks.  I'll do my best to post the emails as they came in as to not hide anything.  OK, so here we go...

EZ,
    What is with all of the hate you clearly have for the Jets?  What are you, from Boston or something?  The Jets are the best team ever, and they are the best in the league right now.  Somebody auta teach you a thing or two about football.  You should show some respect and get off the Patriots waggon.  


Stu M - Port Jefferson, New York


Dear Delusional on the North Shore (a.k.a Stu from Port Jeff),
    First off, I am not from Boston, I was born and raised in New York.  Second, what is a "waggon"?  I am assuming that you meant "wagon", as in "bandwagon" but it is hard to tell. Third, "auta"?  Really Stu?

   Stu, I don't hate the Jets.  All fans accuse me of hating their team if I post even one criticism.  The Jets are a talented team, but I think their front office/coaching staff is a bit dysfunctional.  Winning football games in the NFL is not just about fielding the team with the most talented players.  It is about taking player's talents and merging them in a way that creates an effective team.  Once the Jets figure that out, they may ascend to great heights and become "best in the league".  Until then, they won't even earn the title "best in their city".

Stupid EZ,
    From reading this cr@p you call a blog one thing has become clear.  You know nothing about football or quarterback play.  You have never once pegged a future good quarterback, and you always say that someone will be a bust when they won't.  You called my man Josh Freeman stupid, but he is a great QB for my Bucs. There is not another young QB anyone would rather have than Freeman, so you were just wrong.  How does it feel to be so wrong, stupid?  You should quit your day job.


Alan R - Tampa, Florida


Dear Confused about Cliches (also known as Alan from Tampa),
     First, I think it is important that you recognize that all analysts get it wrong about players from time to time.  So do scouts and GMs (how else can you explain Tom Brady being available in the 6th round).  In fact, even the ones who do this for a living get quite a few projections wrong.  Considering I don't do this professionally, I am flattered to be in such great company.

   As for your guy Freeman, I have indeed said that I don't believe he is smart enough to run a successful pro offense.  After his rookie season, it was looking like I was wrong. If you didn't see him seriously regress last year however, you either didn't watch the Bucs play, or you don't know what regress means.  Teams who start outstanding QBs don't usually wind up picking 5th overall and have their whole coaching staff fired.  It is still too early to make a definitive call as to how good, or bad Freeman will be.

   As for my never picking good QBs, I have called a few right.  In 2005 I called for the 49ers to pick Aaron Rodgers with the first pick, and they chose Alex Smith.  In 2007, I warned against picking Jamarcus Russell first overall, and look what happened.  I have missed a few too, and some of my more recent criticisms of guys like Freeman, Matt Ryan, and Cam Newton may turn out to be wrong, but it is still to early to tell.

Dear Dum EZ
     You are dum and you know nothing about football.  We know this because your nothingness shows every time you open your mouth.  You are dum and know nothing about nothing.  You always rip on the Dolphins, and that is unfair.  They are a very good football team who had some tough breaks.  Matt Moore is the clear QB of the future, and you need to stop bashing the Phins.  Clearly you hate them, and that means you hate Mimi, so you'd better not let me see you there or I'll lick your dum face in.


Carlos G - Royal Palm Beach, Florida


Dear Desperately in Need of a Proofreader (also known as Carlos from Royal Palm Beach),
   Oh wow, where do I start?  How about with your mastery of the language.  You see after the first "dum", I thought you may have had some sort of typo or autocorrect issue, but after you hit me with it twice more, I thought I'd do you the favor of introducing you to the concept of silent letters.  There is a "b" at the end of that word my friend, you just can't hear it.  Also, I urge you to purchase both a dictionary and a thesaurus as soon as possible.  I am not sure you even know what you meant by some of those sentences.

   Now onto the Dolphins.  I don't hate the Dolphins, but as with other teams I try to examine things with a critical eye.  I feel your pain Carlos.  Any QB in Miami since Marino who doesn't completely suck, is now touted as the QB of the Future.  Having said that, Moore doesn't totally suck, but he is not the future either.  There are some quality options for the Dolphins to look at this offseason, including some exciting guys in the draft.  If Steven Ross lets his football people do football, they may even land one.


   In closing Carlos, I have a few parting questions.  First, who is Mimi, and why do you think I hate her? And finally, although I typically don't like being threatened, I really do hope you meant "kick your face in".  If your plan, Fido, is to "lick my face in" all I can say is "ewww". Seeing however that you are in Royal Palm Beach which is at least an hour and a half north of Miami, I guess I don't have too much to worry about.

EZ,
   What did the Chargers ever do to you?  Did you loose money on them or something.  You are so harsh on them and yet you give all this praise to the damn Raiders.  The Raiders suck, and so do you.  Rivers is better than Palmer, and Gates is better than everyone on their whole team.  I can't wait until we roll south and pound them in their own house.  Now get off the Raider's jocks, and appreciate the greatness that is San Diego football.


Mark W - San Diego, California


Dear Desperately in Need of a GPS, or a Map, or a Compass (a.k.a Mark from San Diego),
     Riddle me this my friend.  How do the Chargers travel south bound to arrive in Oakland which a 491 miles north up I5?  I think you have been spending too much time out in the California sunshine Mark.
      Seriously though, I don't love the Raiders, and I don't hate the Chargers.  I simply call them as I see them.  I agree with you that Rivers > Palmer, but Oakland's running game > San Diego's running game.  Moreover, this is not about the Chargers vs the Raiders.  The Chargers have been too talented for too long to have gone nowhere.  All I said was that I think it may be time for a change at the top.  Turner is a good coach, and Smith has a good eye for talent, but they have yet to get anywhere with that.  The Spanos family decided to give these guys one more chance, but I have a hard time imagining that the result will change.
     As for Oakland, I hardly think I am a armor wearing member of the black hole.  All I said was that the hiring of Reggie McKenzie was a very smart move.  If he is the guy that many think he is, the Raiders could be a team on the rebound very soon.

Mock Draft 3.0

2012 Mock Draft 3.0

The combine is over and for those of you that have been following the posts here at EZ Football Futures, you know who we feel came out as the winners, and who hurt themselves through the process.  The two coin tosses that will impact draft order are now in the books too, so onto Mock 3.0 we go.  This one goes two rounds deep.  As always, I welcome your comments.

1.       Indianapolis Colts – Andrew Luck, QB, Stanford

The Colts are in the driver’s seat for this draft, and it appears an almost certainty that they will be using the pole position to select the team’s next franchise QB, Andrew Luck.  Brian Billick echoed the thoughts of many NFL insiders when he called luck the most pro ready prospect at QB since Elway. 

2.       St. Louis Rams – Justin Blackmon, WR, Oklahoma State

Even more certain than the Colts taking Luck, is the fact the St Louis WILL trade this pick.  The only questions now are to whom, and for how much.  As you all are aware, until the trades become official, I don’t include them in my standard mocks, so for now, I have the Rams adding the best weapon for their young QB.  Blackmon is easily the best amongst the wide outs in this class, and he will give the team a weapon they haven’t had since the prime of Torry Holt ended.

3.       Minnesota Vikings – Matt Kalil, OT, USC

During the combine, Matt Kalil cemented his status as the top tackle on the board.  Although Minnesota may be interested in shopping this pick, they will not be sad to stick here and select the guy that will work to keep their QB of the future upright.  If the Vikes are to get better, they will need consistent play from Ponder, and keeping him off the floor will be an awesome first step.

4.       Cleveland Browns – Robert Griffin III, QB, Baylor

Pained as I am to write this, I expect now that the Browns will make the mistake of choosing RG3.  In fact, I expect in the end, it will be Cleveland trading up to 2 to get him.  This is by no means a knock on Griffin.  He is the second best overall prospect on my board, and I think he can be an excellent pro.  My knock is that Cleveland shouldn’t add a QB early.  I still think McCoy has the tools to be a good starter in the league, and I think the Browns need to find a RB they can rely on.  They passed on Adrian Peterson in 07.  Now I think they are going to do the same to Richardson in 2012.

5.       Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Morris Claiborne, CB, LSU

There was not a lot of questions going into the combine as to whom the top corner of the 2012 class was.  Coming out of Indy, there are no questions at all.  Claiborne showed everything you want from a number 1 corner, and now rates higher than his teammate from a year ago Patrick Peterson.  The Bucs need to find a replacement for Ronde Barber, and Claiborne is the right guy. 

6.       Washington Redskins – Ryan Tannehill, QB, TAMU

In this scenario, also called “Nightmare in the Capitol”, the top four players on Washington’s board (Luck, RG3, Blackmon, and Claiborne) are all gone.  Now they have to scramble.  They have needs at corner and wide out, but neither of those are more pressing than their need at QB.  Grossman/Beck is no way to go through a season in the NFL.  Considering the situation, my expectation is we will see the first reach of the draft as the Skins choose Tannehill.  The former Aggie may turn out to be a good QB in the league, but still I see 6 as a bit too high for him.  I’d rather see them trade down a few slots and grab him later.  Unfortunately with Miami and Seattle not far behind in draft order, I don’t see that happening.

7.       Jacksonville Jaguars – Quinton Coples, DE, North Carolina

New Head Coach, Mike Mularkey will have his work cut out for him in Jacksonville, but he has a nice piece at QB in Blaine Gabbert to build around.  Now he needs to look to improve a defense that struggled getting after the QB last year.  Coples is an excellent athlete off the edge, and the best d-lineman on the board.  He will bring a presence that could cornerstone the defense for years to come.

8.       Miami Dolphins – Melvin Ingram, OLB, South Carolina

Like the Redskins, the Dolphins biggest need is at QB.  This will lead them into serious discussions with St Louis for the second overall selection.  When those fall apart and Tannehill is already picked too, I see the Phins looking in another direction.  Melvin Ingram was another player who had an excellent combine, and he seems to fit another need of Miami.  Ingram will line up on the outside in a 3-4, and this will allow the team to move Koa Misi inside, and Kevin Burnett to the bench, all of which will make this team better.

9.       Carolina Panthers – Dontari Poe, DT, Memphins

After losing the coin toss to Miami, the Panther will be picking 9^th.  The team has a serious need at corner, but I don’t see anyone still available worth taking this high.  Instead, I think the panthers will focus on shoring up a weak middle which resulted in a very poor run defense last season.  Poe was the combine darling this year.  His freakish athletic ability/size combination will be too much to resist, and will result in him finding himself picked in the top ten.


  

10.   Buffalo Bills – Reily Reiff, OT, Iowa

The projection still hasn’t changed for the Bills.  Although improving, the team still has a few holes that could be filled and I expect them to address the o-line with this pick.  Although reiff is the highest ranked player at a position of need for Buffalo, I do have to say I have some concerns about him.  After a subpar performance at the combine, I watched some more video of him play, and I found myself seeing him miss blocks more often than I remembered.  This pick may come with a bit more risk than I previously thought.

11.   Kansas City Chiefs – Jonathan Martin, OT, Stanford

The Chiefs are a team could go in many directions with this pick, but adding a guy like Martin would be the best choice for them.  There are a few question marks with Martin, but at this point in the draft he is worth the risk.  If he pans out, he is the type of player that could afford Romeo Crennell the opportunity to move Braden Albert to the right side and give the Chiefs an excellent pair of bookends.

12.   Seattle Seahawks –Trent Richardson, RB, Alabama

The unfortunate fall of Trent Richardson will end here.  Richardson is easily the best RB of this class, and he grades out higher than all the other backs from last year’s class too.  His fall is more a result of the needs of the teams picking earlier than it is about Richardson himself.  The Hawks may or may not have Lynch back next year, and either way Richardson is an upgrade.  He would give the team a run game they could rely on.  That is of course if no one trades up to grab him first.

13.   Arizona Cardinals – David DeCastro, OG, Stanford

The Cardinals need help in a few spots, but none greater than their o-line.  DeCastro is a valuable add as he is flexible enough to play inside or out.  I think long term he projects best at Guard, but with all the holes up front for Zona, DeCastro will be an immediate upgrade for this team.

14.   Dallas Cowboys – Dre Kirkpatrick, CB, Alabama

Kirkpatrick is in a heated battle with North Alabama’s Janoris Jenkins for the second spot amongst corners on the board.  Both are physically gifted talents with questions about their character.  In the end, I suspect Kirkpatrick will be deemed the less risky of the two and thus the selection of the Dallas Cowboys.

15.   Philadelphia Eagles – Luke Kuechly, ILB, Boston College

Luke Kuechly did in Indy exactly what he does best.  He simply performed.  This guy brings an awesome work ethic and attitude to the table and will be an immediate upgrade for a disappointing Eagles team who will be looking for answers. 

16.   New York Jets – Mark Barron, S, Alabama

The Jets are a talented team, but their lack of chemistry really hurt them last season.  Revis is still one of the best corners in the game, but the Jets safeties hurt this team.  Mark Barron was the leader of the National Champion Tide’s outstand defensive unit, and will be an immediate upgrade for this secondary. 

17.   Cincinnati Bengals via Oakland – Janoris Jenkins, CB, North Alabama

Thanks to the Carson Palmer deal, the Bengals have two first rounders to continue to build their franchise.  Losing Jonathan Joseph last season hurt, so adding his replacement should be their priority.  No one questions Jenkins physical talents, however, there are plenty of questions about his character.  This team has taken risks with characters before (TO, Pacman) so Jenkins past may not weigh quite as heavily on this team as it would others.

18.   San Diego Chargers – Cordy Glenn, OG, Georgia

 The Chargers need help upfront.  Their lack of consistent line play led to Phillip Rivers having his worst season as the Bolts starting QB last year, and for him, and ultimately them to rebound, they will need to handle pressure better.  Cordy Glenn is a man on the rise following an excellent combine.  He proved to many that he is the rare OG worthy of a first round selection and I think he would be a good fit in San D.

19.   Chicago Bears – Michael Floyd, WR, Notre Dame

The Bears have speed but they still lack a true, reliable, number one receiver.  Floyd has good speed, and great hands.  He uses his body well, and knows how to go up and get the ball.  He has experience in playing in cold weather, so Chicago could be the perfect fit for this Notre Dame product who solidified himself as the number two WR prospect with his work at the combine.

20.   Tennessee Titans – Courtney Upshaw, LB, Alabama

In past mocks, Courtney Upshaw was long gone by the time the Titans get on the clock.  Now he is available to Tennessee because his stock is falling after performing poorly in Indy.  When the Titans are up there will be a lot of debate between selecting Upshaw versus Clemson DE, Andre Branch who stock is on the rise.  In the end, the Titans will choose the Bama product, and they will be glad they did.  His play for the Tide means more to me than his performance at the combine, and I suspect he will be a very solid pro.

21.   Cincinnati Bengals – David Wilson, RB, Virginia Tech

Before the combine, I was having a hard time finding any other back I liked behind Richardson.  Now there are a few.  The truth is, Richardson is still the class of this group, but David Wilson is no slouch.  He has an excellent combination of size and speed, and I think he can be a good back at the next level.  He holds a slight lead on Lamar Miller, and Doug Martin for the number two spot for backs on my board.

22.   Cleveland Browns via Atlanta – Lamar Miller, RB, Miami

After adding RG3, Cleveland will now look to fill holes in the secondary and at RB.  Lamar Miller is the highest rated player in any of those positions available.  He has great speed, and it looks like his injuries aren’t going to hold him back at all.  With Hillis on his way out of Cleveland, Miller can be paired with Montario Hardesty to give Cleveland an exciting, young backfield.

23.   Detroit Lions – Alfonso Denard, CB, Nebraska

The Lions made some excellent strides last year, becoming a playoff team for the first time since the Roosevelt Administration. They have a very high powered offense, and a strong, young group at the front of their defense.  Now they need to shore up that secondary.  Denard comes with some questions about his subpar senior season, and a weak showing at the combine, but is a strong talent nonetheless.  I think he is a risk worth taking for Detroit at this point in the draft.

 

24.   Pittsburgh Steelers – Andre Branch, DE, Clemson

The Steelers are typically a team who I have a hard time pegging because the rarely have any holes to fill.  This year is different.  Pittsburgh just said goodbye to a bunch of players who have been long term contributors to this team’s success.  One of those guys, Aaron Smith was quietly one of the best 3-4 d-ends of this era.  Branch is on the rise after a very good combine, and he will be the guy that Pittsburgh looks to, to help bridge this transition.

25.   Denver Broncos – Fletcher Cox, DT, Mississippi State

Despite what the press would have you believe, it was not only Tim Tebow who led Denver to the 2011 AFC West crown.  It was the defense, led by rookie extraordinaire, Von Miller.   Despite his excellent play, he cannot do it alone, and that is why I expect for the team to add a big guy up front.  If Cox can come in and help keep opposing linemen off Miller, this defense can go from playoff caliber to championship caliber.

26.   Houston Texans – Alshon Jeffery, WR, South Carolina

The Houston Texans are a team to watch as they are very good and getting better.  They really do need another weapon on the other side of Andre Johnson however.  Alshon Jeffery is a guy I have long been high on.  I think he has all of the skills you want in a wide out.  Although not spectacular, his showing at the combine was sufficient to move him into the third spot on the board amongst WRs.  With a healthy Schaub, along with Foster, Tate, Johnson, and now Jeffery… my oh my.

27.   New England Patriots via New Orleans – Zach Brown, LB, New England

Every year the Pats field an excellent ball club, and I think it is because of a combination of having this generation’s best coach on the side line, and all of the draft day gymnastics this team always seem to execute.  Two more first round picks for the Pats will allow for New England to continue to re-stock rather than rebuild.  Zach Brown is a tremendous athlete, and although raw, open to learning.  With the tutelage available to him in New England, he can develop into what I expect to be an excellent force at linebacker.

28.   Green Bay Packers – Whitney Mercillus, DE, Illinois

The Packers really have very few weaknesses, so they can really go in any direction with this pick.  Despite being eliminated from the playoffs early, I still feel Green Bay is the best team in the league.  Adding a guy like Mercillus could make the best even better.  Getting more pressure off the edge is almost always a good thing, and Mercillus could help them do that.

29.   Baltimore Ravens – Peter Konz, C, Wisconsin

Baltimore is another very good team without too many pressing needs.  Unfortunately they have some key players who are getting a bit long in the tooth (Lewis, Reed, Birk) that they need to start to think about replacing.  Birk is coming back for what most expect to be his final season.  Drafting the best center in this year’s class would be a wise investment in this team’s future.

30.   San Francisco 49ers – Kendall Wright, WR, Baylor

Despite a worse than anticipated performance at the combine, Kendall Wright is a fairly luck guy.  His performance was not so bad that it made scouts question all they thought they knew about him.  It also helps that San Fran has such a glaring need at the position.  I don’t know if he will ever grow into a superstar in the league, but I do think he will be a better option than most of what is there for Smith to throw to now.

31.   New England Patriots – Michael Brockers, DT, LSU

Brockers is one of the guys who fell hardest during the combine.  The outstanding performance of Poe, and many of the other DTs shined a bright light on the underperforming Brockers.  His lack of experience is yet another concern, as is the recent draft history of LSU d-linemen.  This has all led to Brockers being downgraded on draft boards.  Having said that, he still looked to be the best player on the field for the Tigers during the national championship game, and with the coaching in New England, he is a worth while risk at this spot.

32.   New York Giants – Dont’a Hightower, LB, Alabama

The Giants are a tough team to peg because more than anyone they really do stick to the best player available philosophy.  Hightower is an excellent talent in the middle, and I suspect that he will fit the bill as that best player available at this point in the draft.  As scary as this may be for the rest of the league, I think this defense just may get better.

33.   St Louis Rams – Ronnell Lewis, LB, Oklahoma

34.   Indianapolis Colts – Chris Owusu, WR, Stanford

35.   Minnesota Vikings – Chase Minnefield, CB, Minnesota

36.   Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Levonte David, LB, Nebraska

37.   Cleveland Browns – Harrison Smith, S, Notre Dame

38.   Jacksonville Jaguars – Mohamed  Sanu, WR, Rutgers

39.   Washington Redskins – Stephen Hill, WR, Georgia Tech

40.   Carolina Panthers – Nick Perry, DE/OLB, USC

41.   Buffalo Bills – Colby Fleener, TE, Stanford

42.   Miami Dolphins – Brandon Weeden, QB, Oklahoma State

43.   Seattle Seahawks – Nick Foles, QB, Arizona

44.   Kansas City Chiefs – Dwayne Allen, TE, Clemson

45.   Dallas Cowboys – David Molk, C, Michigan

46.   Philadelphia Eagles – Devon Still, DT, Penn State

47.   New York Jets – Bruce Irvin, DE/OLB, West Virginia

48.   New England Patriots via Oakland – Jayron Hosley, CB, Virginia Tech

49.   San Diego Chargers – Chandler Jones, DE, Syracuse

50.   Chicago Bears – Klechi Osmele, OG, Iowa State

51.   Philadelphia Eagles via Arizona – Billy Winn, DE, Bosie State

52.   Tennessee Titans – Antonio Allen, S, South Carolina

53.   Cincinnati Bengals – Mike Brewster, C, Ohio State

54.   Detroit Lions – Mychal Kendrick, LB, California

55.   Atlanta Falcons – Brandon Washington, OG, Miami

56.   Pittsburgh Steelers – Jerel Worthy, DT, Michigan State

57.   Denver Broncos – Orson Charles, TE, Georgia

58.   Houston Texans – Brandon Thompson, DT, Clemson

59.   New Orleans Saints – Kendall Reyes, DT, UConn

60.   Green Bay Packers – Casey Heyward, CB, Vanderbilt

61.   Baltimore Ravens – Vontaze Burfict, LB, Arizona State

62.   San Francisco 49ers – Mike Martin, DT, Michigan

63.   New England Patriots – Doug Martin, RB, Boise State

64.   New York Giants – Chris Polk, RB, Washington